And the funny thing is, Moneyball is exactly how Everton was under Moyes -- finding hidden talent in unpopular leagues and in players with unconventional skill sets to create a team that consistently outperformed its financials. Like with Beane and the Oakland A's, though, it never was a strategy that could push us to the top.
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Moneyball gets a bad rap because that's what Liverpool said they were doing when they spent 20 million on Stewart Downing.
The principle, as I understand it, is that scouts looking at players can be misled by things that aren't actually important. Players who 'look the part' but don't actually have what it takes.
So if you want to get a bargain it can be useful to check out players stats and see if you can't pick up a player who nobody else wants cos he's from azerbaijan or has a drinking problem or for whatever reason puts off the scouts but does it on the pitch.
Which is a sound strategy. The players you're looking for might not be better than the ones all the scouts want but if there's no competition they will at least be cheaper.
Liverpool, being the geniuses they are, looked into the stats and picked out four or five players who nobody else fancied but the stats made look good. And then told their guys to go get them.
Except people saw them coming and just raised their prices and because liverpool wanted all of their list they ended up paying stupid prices for not very good players. Which completely missed the whole point of trying to buy players noone else wanted in the first place.
Great stuff, really.
The principle, as I understand it, is that scouts looking at players can be misled by things that aren't actually important. Players who 'look the part' but don't actually have what it takes.
So if you want to get a bargain it can be useful to check out players stats and see if you can't pick up a player who nobody else wants cos he's from azerbaijan or has a drinking problem or for whatever reason puts off the scouts but does it on the pitch.
Which is a sound strategy. The players you're looking for might not be better than the ones all the scouts want but if there's no competition they will at least be cheaper.
Liverpool, being the geniuses they are, looked into the stats and picked out four or five players who nobody else fancied but the stats made look good. And then told their guys to go get them.
Except people saw them coming and just raised their prices and because liverpool wanted all of their list they ended up paying stupid prices for not very good players. Which completely missed the whole point of trying to buy players noone else wanted in the first place.
Great stuff, really.
I know but...A guy on Toffeeweb, says he was in the boardroom for the Stoke game and the good news is that the takeover is on and the bad news is that Bill is indeed not in the best of health...mixed emotions here
njligernj
Player Valuation: £15m
I realize the post in question wasn't legit but just addressing this logically not literally:
Glazers are billionaires too ... why did they structure the deal like that? Rather than invest in a handful of things they leverage the 1 billion they have into acting like 10 billion while protecting their initial stake. So rather than just buying Man U with their money they can buy Man U and keep all their money instead. Why wouldn't they do that?
Glazers are billionaires too ... why did they structure the deal like that? Rather than invest in a handful of things they leverage the 1 billion they have into acting like 10 billion while protecting their initial stake. So rather than just buying Man U with their money they can buy Man U and keep all their money instead. Why wouldn't they do that?
zirc
Player Valuation: £40m
The problem is that baseball is much easier to analyse since it's a series of discrete events that are mostly 1v1 matchups. Take a guy from one team and stick him in another amd he'll perform roughly the same. Football is so fluid and cooperation based that its orders of magnitude harder to analyse statistically.
zirc
Player Valuation: £40m
It's not about having enough cash, it's just the fact that we don't have the income to service that level of debt
njligernj
Player Valuation: £15m
Why do you say that? We only don't have enough if we continue to spend competitively.
Again, napkin math, but if you sold to Prem teams, bought from non-Prem teams (where your PL money puts you above all but a handful of teams) and just aimed for mid-table we'd easily be able to siphon 10-20m from the current deal to service the debt. Plus selling some of our 50m assets and not replacing them of course. Loads of money.
We can't do what Man U did -- service debt and spend hundreds of millions on players. Of course not. But what do they care about making the CL?
It's free money. Everton has millions just lying around our current board has never been smart or engaged enough to leverage. We've all said it for years. We said it under the impression that if we leveraged our assets better we'd have more money to buy players; you can't be surprised when someone finally shows up and starts picking up the money for themselves instead.
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abelard
Player Valuation: £35m
if you define "Moneyball" as buying great players for much less than the market rate, then it doesn't take a brilliant mind to conclude "yes, we should do that!" - as if we aren't already among the best in the country at identifying cheap talent or developing it from the academy.
the problem is that "Moneyball" in an American context often rests on assumptions that don't hold in a competitive environment. American sports are legally-corrupt corporate welfare cartels, and much of their analytical insights rest on gaming the system as much as anything else.
the trouble would be if new owners presume that they are here to "rationalize," "modernize," "introduce business method efficiencies," "disrupt" or "do more with less" - insert your favourite corporate nonsense here - and are too arrogant and impervious to listen to those who actually understand how a competitive sport works. American owners in particular have a pretty grim track record in England... and silicon valley types are not exactly known for openmindedness or humility. the more their methods are questioned, the more they're convinced they're right.
the problem is that "Moneyball" in an American context often rests on assumptions that don't hold in a competitive environment. American sports are legally-corrupt corporate welfare cartels, and much of their analytical insights rest on gaming the system as much as anything else.
the trouble would be if new owners presume that they are here to "rationalize," "modernize," "introduce business method efficiencies," "disrupt" or "do more with less" - insert your favourite corporate nonsense here - and are too arrogant and impervious to listen to those who actually understand how a competitive sport works. American owners in particular have a pretty grim track record in England... and silicon valley types are not exactly known for openmindedness or humility. the more their methods are questioned, the more they're convinced they're right.
AaronTheBlue
Player Valuation: £60m
Personally I reckon the moores and noell transfer has fallen through but there are other parties interested
Think a lot of the stuff getting spread is just bs imo
Think a lot of the stuff getting spread is just bs imo
Bob Elstone
Player Valuation: £35m
Any chance of posting the link mate?
Coffee and TV
Player Valuation: £25m
Here you go, I found it
http://toffeeweb.com/season/15-16/rumour-mill/31703.html
For personal reasons one has to be a bit ’diplomatic’ regards these things. I was privy to be in the boardroom for the Stoke game in December.
The ’news’ regard the takeover was fairly recent at that time I was there but the whisper was, yes it was a reality and looking to be quite realistic after the Due Diligence process etc was gone through.
But, up to that day, Bill Kenwright had only attended two games at Goodison – Ferguson’s testimonial and the Leicester game. It was confirmed he is quite ill and therefore there is a lot going on behind the scenes.
But, yes, something realistic is going on. Regards of issues/ opinions I think a bit of respect and privacy should be in order.
Regards tonight ......COYB....Do It!!!!!
Bob Elstone
Player Valuation: £35m
meagher94
Player Valuation: £35m
He/she hasn't got a clue.
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