Latest Takeover Rumour. The Moores / Noell one

[wm02]

moneyball sounds like we have to sign ugly or strange players

A squad of Straqs

 

[SerenityNigh]

Nobody is conflating "Moneyball" with "Cartel." The point is that analytical approaches where the majority of expenses are publicly subsidized, where collusion to dampen player wages is routine, where revenues are pooled, and where ineptitude is rewarded - in other words, where it's impossible not to profit - don't apply to the rest of the world. This was in response to whether or not the San Diego Padres have anything to do with how Everton might be run. Smart sports management in the US is often deliberately reducing performance standards in order to be arbitrarily compensated with controllable assets at artificially low prices. American fans even want their teams to take this approach! I'm not trying to be anti-American, just to point out that running a team in that environment is... exceptional, and the record shows it rarely (ever?) works in a more free market system, like the rest of the world uses. Successful US premier league owners, anyone? The main point isn't to bash Americans, but that the "it must be Kenwright's fault I was still a virgin after high-school" crowd should be careful what they wish for, with all foreign ownership bids, but American ones in particular.

If we're going to define Moneyball as just "buy low sell high" then it's a useless platitude that nobody could possibly object to. The problem is that how you go about it in such an exceptional environment is very different than it is in a more free market system, and the result so far suggest the transition is not so straight-forward to overcome

Really don't follow much of this argument, and I think you're not only conflating cartel with moneyball, but nearly every other point you've made above.

 

[Dario Terracotta]

A squad of Straqs

Flanno crossing the park?lol

 

[Allezfan]

Won't disagree with this, but still much to learn from what works in other systems/leagues, and I disagree entirely with the conflation of "cartel" and "moneyball". Beane's basic premise (in my oversimplified terms) is that certain players who "have the look about them" or excel in one statistical category (i.e., BA) have much higher prices than those who don't have the look (but do produce), or excel in under-valued categories (W, OBP). These undesired players may not have the same upside, but they have better value overall. No doubt Beane got lucky with a few players as WM suggested, but he also picked out great players that nobody else was looking for. Much more opportunity for this in football, with leagues all over the world, than in baseball with a relatively limited talent pool.

Not all leagues are the same--baseball and basketball, despite having very similar "cartel" structures, produce very different results in how to select young talent--but I think there's still much for English football clubs to learn about how to select and acquire talent.

Do you think we're bad at selecting and acquiring talent, though?

Because I think the current scouting system has proved over the last 15 years to be very good at that and I would say the fact that the board haven't meddled with the footballing side of things is part of why. I would be reluctant to see that change.

 

[RaleighBlue]

Moneyball won't work in European football.

It's not an issue of finances. It's an issue of statistics. The statistical revolution of sabermetrics was 'open-source' as it were. We got to see new, better ways to evaluate talent. And the earliest adopter of this (the A's) saw some benefits from utilizing statistics that correlate more closely with success than the traditional model.

Moneyball cannot work without a leap in statistical (or other) player evaluation techniques, allowing a team or teams to gain a (temporary) advantage over other teams in the signing of underrated players.

Advanced statistics in european football have two problems:
1) It's much harder to identify good statistics in flowing team sports, especially ones with 11 players that interchange and not a lot of traditional counting statistics
2) They probably already have done this, and the statistics are the proprietary property of each club that creates a new one. If not, they should.
3) Adjusting for league is not the easiest thing to do (look at the hit-miss nature of European NBA players).

The key to Moneyball is identifying a clear gap in the market and then exploiting it until everyone else catches on (leading to the richest clubs winning again). Football has A LOT more teams, coaches, fans, clubs, etc. There are less gaps in the markets. Moneyball is a moment in time.

 

[roydo]

Moneyball is total toilet water. In football.

It is about as relevant as a players star sign.

 

[abelard]

Really don't follow much of this argument, and I think you're not only conflating cartel with moneyball, but nearly every other point you've made above.

Not sure I can explain it any more clearly, and this does risk getting off-topic, but: Let's say you run Aston Villa, an NBA team. A sound "Moneyball" - ie analytics-based -strategy would be to sell the entire first team (since there is no relegation) and replace them with, why not, the Havant and Waterlooville first 11. This increases your odds of being arbitrarily assigned Ross Barkley, who doesn't have the legal right to play for another side for at least half a decade, and who you are legally entitled to pay around 10% of the market rate. You don't have to scout Gerard Deulofeu, or Seamus Coleman, or Brendan Galloway, and then put in a competitive offer for them - you just try to perform even more ineptly and they'll be assigned to you. You don't have to worry about, say, stadium expenses, because if Birmingham won't pay you, you can move and become Surrey or Shoreditch Villa - or you might just go there anyways because the North under the Tories doesn't make you wealthy enough. There is no shortage of teams who take this approach, and they are praised for using "analytic" or "Moneyball" methods.

Is it so difficult to see why the assumptions behind this approach don't necessarily translate in the rest of the world? Why owners accustomed to this system might make poor decisions elsewhere?

The cognitive dissonance in extolling the "free market" but embracing this model is interesting, but best left for the Ale House.

 

[Woolly Blue]

Can we give Moneyball a rest and stick to the topic lads ?


I'm mainly saying this because I havn't a clue what Moneyball is, so if someone can show how it's directly relevant to the rumoured takeover then I'll creep quietly away.

It sounds vaguely interesting I suppose, so feel free to start a new thread on "Moneyball and it's relevance to English football" or whatever

 

[Woolly Blue]

Moneyball is total toilet water. In football.

It is about as relevant as a players star sign.

I spent ages composing my message but that's a much better way of saying it.

 

[TheFinnFan]

Moneyball ...why the hell are peeps talking about it...

 

[By god I'm blue]

Please just hurry up and get this deal announced and the deadwood out of the club.

 

[tonka1878]

Are we competing in this years World Series?

 

[Woolly Blue]

Moneyball ...why the hell are peeps talking about it...

I presume because they have no seals to club?

 

[SerenityNigh]

Do you think we're bad at selecting and acquiring talent, though?

Because I think the current scouting system has proved over the last 15 years to be very good at that and I would say the fact that the board haven't meddled with the footballing side of things is part of why. I would be reluctant to see that change.

No, I think Everton are pretty good at this, but without more capital from owners the club must continue to exploit weaknesses in the market.

 

[Allezfan]

Can we give Moneyball a rest and stick to the topic lads ?


I'm mainly saying this because I havn't a clue what Moneyball is, so if someone can show how it's directly relevant to the rumoured takeover then I'll creep quietly away.

It sounds vaguely interesting I suppose, so feel free to start a new thread on "Moneyball and it's relevance to English football" or whatever

When american owners took over the rs they replaced their scouting and transfer system with a new one based on the moneyball system used in baseball.

Their was debate on whether our new american owners would want to do the same thing.

You'd imagine they wouldn't as we, unlike liverpool, actually have a competant scouting and transfer system already but it's stirred up a decent debate anyway.