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2019/20 Marco Silva

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Years ago I read a paper on this that showed that replacing the manager mid season usually brings a dramatic change in points per game (and not always a positive one) before regression to the mean. The average length of the disrupted period was 8 games.

I'm not sure, unless there is a stellar long term option immediately willing to step in, that canning Silva is the answer to our problems. Locking him in a room and showing him videos of teams playing a 433... maybe.

Could be the same paper quoted in the BBC article I linked to, it's from a few years back.

I want the club off the changing manager mid-season merry go round as it's an expensive and disruptive ride. Obviously if the wheels fall off completely as they did I'd say with Koeman, then yes, press the alarm button, get an Allardyce figure in and preserve top flight status. Just remember how disruptive that can be and how it could make things harder for the next permanent appointment though...

Otherwise, even if Silva isn't the long term solution* I think it's better to get through to the close season. At that point you have a greater choice of managers to speak to, you have time for a new guy to get their way of playing across to players, you probably have to pay less compensation to the previous incumbent and the club that his successor is contracted to etc. etc.







*At this point I don't think he is.
 

Could be the same paper quoted in the BBC article I linked to, it's from a few years back.

I want the club off the changing manager mid-season merry go round as it's an expensive and disruptive ride. Obviously if the wheels fall off completely as they did I'd say with Koeman, then yes, press the alarm button, get an Allardyce figure in and preserve top flight status. Just remember how disruptive that can be and how it could make things harder for the next permanent appointment though...

Otherwise, even if Silva isn't the long term solution* I think it's better to get through to the close season. At that point you have a greater choice of managers to speak to, you have time for a new guy to get their way of playing across to players, you probably have to pay less compensation to the previous incumbent and the club that his successor is contracted to etc. etc.







*At this point I don't think he is.


Just read the link, I think my recollection is from even earlier... Prepare for incoming "The Eredivisie tells us nothing" shouts, by the way.

However I am absolutely on board with that analysis.
 

Years ago I read a paper on this that showed that replacing the manager mid season usually brings a dramatic change in points per game (and not always a positive one) before regression to the mean. The average length of the disrupted period was 8 games.

I'm not sure, unless there is a stellar long term option immediately willing to step in, that canning Silva is the answer to our problems. Locking him in a room and showing him videos of teams playing a 433... maybe.


It's a huge dilemma for the club and most particularly Brands to be in.

Not sacking Silva because we cannot/should not sack him isn't an option, but neither is replacing him merely to change for it's own sake.

We need a thorough, global process to appoint a manager and even then, there will be no guarantees.

I genuinely fear the consequences for us if the wrong call is made yet again.

In my opinion, we would have to go for for someone with a lot of experience, and preferably a big personality........if such a person is out there, willing, and available. Inevitably we will have to "Settle" to some degree.

For a long time I have thought that if we are ever to be successful again, it will take one manager to stabilise us over a 3-4 year period along the lines of what Moyes achieved and then another to push us on. Those jobs require people with clearly different skill sets.

I don't think there is going to be one great leap forward at this club under one manager and perhaps if that was recognised it would help in the recruitment process. We have to know what type of manager we are looking for and why.
 
I genuinely fear the consequences for us if the wrong call is made yet again.

Unless you're Chelsea with Abramovich's backing, it's not a good idea to keep sacking managers. Not least because it dissuades the better candidates from coming. Why go to a club that cans you at the first hint of trouble? Where's the incentive to plan for the long term?
 

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