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NFL 2024 Season

Kev The Rat said:
Saw this on Reddit. Thought it would be interesting to post here

Top AFC QBs when throwing 30 or more times in a game

We all know that Quarterback efficiency tends to go down the more they throw in a game. I wanted to look at top AFC QBs and see how their winrate fluctuates based on an (admittedly arbitrary) threshold of 30 pass attempts in one game.

Lamar Jackson has an overall record of 71-28 (71.7%) including the playoffs. He is 20-18 (52.6%) when throwing 30+ times in a game, and 51-10 (83.6%) otherwise. He wins 19.1% less often when throwing 30+ times and 11.9% more often when throwing <30 times.

Josh Allen has an overall record of 81-38 (68%) including the playoffs. He is 50-30 (62.5%) when throwing 30+ times in a game, and 31-8 (79.5%) otherwise. He wins 5.5% less often when throwing 30+ times and 11.5% more often when throwing <30 times.

Joe Burrow has an overall record of 42-32-1 (57%) including the playoffs. He is 33-30-1 (52.8%) when throwing 30+ times in a game, and 9-2 (81.8%) otherwise. He wins 4.2% less often when throwing 30+ times and 24.8% more often when throwing <30 times.

Patrick Mahomes has an overall record of 104-26 (80%) including playoffs. He is 83-25 (76.9%) when throwing 30+ times in a game, and 21-1 (95.4%) otherwise. He wins 3.1% less often when throwing 30+ times and 15.4% more often when throwing <30 times.

Justin Herbert has an overall record of 40-39 (50.6%) including playoffs. He is 33-35 (48.5%) when throwing 30+ times in a game, and 7-4 (63.6%) otherwise. He wins 2.1% less often when throwing 30+ times and 13% more often when throwing <30 times.

Some notes to take away from these numbers: Jackson is hurt more than anyone by throwing 30+ times in a game, his dropoff being nearly 4 times that of Allen’s. Burrow benefits the most from not having to throw as much, albeit in a small sample size. Mahomes having only one loss when throwing <30 times in a game (In 2022 to the Bengals) seems kind of ludicrous.
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Wow teams win less when they get behind and throw a lot. Stunning discovery.

This is more a commentary on style than quality. To compare it to football it’d be like doing a bunch of stats on possession. The Chiefs default offense is to throw a ton so they’re never going to lose a game when they don’t since they aren’t going to a clock management grind it out style without a huge lead.
 
TheBigIguana said:
Wow teams win less when they get behind and throw a lot. Stunning discovery.

This is more a commentary on style than quality. To compare it to football it’d be like doing a bunch of stats on possession. The Chiefs default offense is to throw a ton so they’re never going to lose a game when they don’t since they aren’t going to a clock management grind it out style without a huge lead.
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Well it shows you what is expected each from each QB in order to win the game for their team

Which in Lamar's case appears to be not very much.....
 

Kev The Rat said:
nuance away then - tell me what passing pressure the Ravens put Lamar under.
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I’m not really interested in doing a long write up on how Lamar powers everything the Ravens do because you’re not one to actually appreciate it in any way, but the one basic thing is that the Ravens don’t run a ton of quick game. Their passing game is built to get chunks so when Lamar is having a great game he’s not going to throw 30 times. For example the Denver game this year he ripped them apart with only 19 passes. Or Tampa Bay where he only threw 22 times.

I’m willing to have a real long discussion about this but history suggests you’re not actually here to be serious so I’m just leaving it here.
 


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