Saw this on Reddit. Thought it would be interesting to post here
Top AFC QBs when throwing 30 or more times in a game
We all know that Quarterback efficiency tends to go down the more they throw in a game. I wanted to look at top AFC QBs and see how their winrate fluctuates based on an (admittedly arbitrary) threshold of 30 pass attempts in one game.
Lamar Jackson has an overall record of 71-28 (71.7%) including the playoffs. He is 20-18 (52.6%) when throwing 30+ times in a game, and 51-10 (83.6%) otherwise. He wins 19.1% less often when throwing 30+ times and 11.9% more often when throwing <30 times.
Josh Allen has an overall record of 81-38 (68%) including the playoffs. He is 50-30 (62.5%) when throwing 30+ times in a game, and 31-8 (79.5%) otherwise. He wins 5.5% less often when throwing 30+ times and 11.5% more often when throwing <30 times.
Joe Burrow has an overall record of 42-32-1 (57%) including the playoffs. He is 33-30-1 (52.8%) when throwing 30+ times in a game, and 9-2 (81.8%) otherwise. He wins 4.2% less often when throwing 30+ times and 24.8% more often when throwing <30 times.
Patrick Mahomes has an overall record of 104-26 (80%) including playoffs. He is 83-25 (76.9%) when throwing 30+ times in a game, and 21-1 (95.4%) otherwise. He wins 3.1% less often when throwing 30+ times and 15.4% more often when throwing <30 times.
Justin Herbert has an overall record of 40-39 (50.6%) including playoffs. He is 33-35 (48.5%) when throwing 30+ times in a game, and 7-4 (63.6%) otherwise. He wins 2.1% less often when throwing 30+ times and 13% more often when throwing <30 times.
Some notes to take away from these numbers: Jackson is hurt more than anyone by throwing 30+ times in a game, his dropoff being nearly 4 times that of Allen’s. Burrow benefits the most from not having to throw as much, albeit in a small sample size. Mahomes having only one loss when throwing <30 times in a game (In 2022 to the Bengals) seems kind of ludicrous.
