POTUS 2016

[tsubaki]

What's been the best line of the race so far?

'please clap' is a favourite.

there were about a hundred in those un-edited clips of Cruz telling his family what to say

 

[chewee]

clinton is an obvious careerist but SURELY she is better than trump, if any of his 'policies' actually happen it could be a real disaster

Without question, the scary thing about the GOP side of the race is that Trump in comparison to the second place runner at the moment (Cruz) is actually far more moderate.

If he does win the nomination it's hard to see a path to the White House for Trump given his hostility to various minority groups. Take Florida for example which is a big bell weather state, heavy Hispanic population, how does he win there?

 

[neil999]

Without question, the scary thing about the GOP side of the race is that Trump in comparison to the second place runner at the moment (Cruz) is actually far more moderate.

If he does win the nomination it's hard to see a path to the White House for Trump given his hostility to various minority groups. Take Florida for example which is a big bell weather state, heavy Hispanic population, how does he win there?

yeah ive heard cruz is worse, what specific policies does he have that are worse?

 

[tsubaki]

Without question, the scary thing about the GOP side of the race is that Trump in comparison to the second place runner at the moment (Cruz) is actually far more moderate.

If he does win the nomination it's hard to see a path to the White House for Trump given his hostility to various minority groups. Take Florida for example which is a big bell weather state, heavy Hispanic population, how does he win there?

It depends if he keeps saying what he has been, but its important to point out that there is a difference between the settled, "legal" hispanic community and the illegal ones - and what he has been saying would only affect the illegals, if it could even be brought in. As you say he is actually quite a bit more moderate than Cruz (and Rubio, though of course Rubio probably doesn't actually hold any opinions) on most issues.

If he wins the nomination and its a fight between him and Clinton, I think he would probably win the White House - the amount of stuff that they can throw at her (given that its not been thrown in the Democrat primaries to any real extent) is huge, and not all of it is fibs. That Sanders has got as close as he has, and that the rest of the field was largely purged in advance of decent rivals, would suggest she actually isn't that great a candidate.

 

[tsubaki]

yeah ive heard cruz is worse, what specific policies does he have that are worse?

Most of them; though probably my favourite is his plan to go after ISIS by tearing up Obama's* Iran deal. Then you have how he behaves, and who is funding him.

Cruz as president is a terrifying idea.

* which is of course the world's Iran deal

 

[neil999]

Most of them; though probably my favourite is his plan to go after ISIS by tearing up Obama's* Iran deal. Then you have how he behaves, and who is funding him.

Cruz as president is a terrifying idea.

* which is of course the world's Iran deal

chilling

 

[TheFinnFan]

Trump got 44% of hispanic votes..pretty good eh

 

[Hellerad]

It depends if he keeps saying what he has been, but its important to point out that there is a difference between the settled, "legal" hispanic community and the illegal ones - and what he has been saying would only affect the illegals, if it could even be brought in. As you say he is actually quite a bit more moderate than Cruz (and Rubio, though of course Rubio probably doesn't actually hold any opinions) on most issues.

If he wins the nomination and its a fight between him and Clinton, I think he would probably win the White House - the amount of stuff that they can throw at her (given that its not been thrown in the Democrat primaries to any real extent) is huge, and not all of it is fibs. That Sanders has got as close as he has, and that the rest of the field was largely purged in advance of decent rivals, would suggest she actually isn't that great a candidate.

Sanders has gotten as far as he has because liberals are not united behind Clinton, who reeks of a plastic talking point robo-candidate. However, given how extreme the GOP has pushed in this convention, I have no doubt that democrats (and liberal leaning moderates and independents) would rally behind Clinton as the lesser of two evils in a presidential campaign.

Republicans are in equally bad shape because either Trump wins the nomination and forces moderates/independents to vote Clinton or the GOP nominates somebody else and Trump divides the party base.

 

[chewee]

It depends if he keeps saying what he has been, but its important to point out that there is a difference between the settled, "legal" hispanic community and the illegal ones - and what he has been saying would only affect the illegals, if it could even be brought in. As you say he is actually quite a bit more moderate than Cruz (and Rubio, though of course Rubio probably doesn't actually hold any opinions) on most issues.

If he wins the nomination and its a fight between him and Clinton, I think he would probably win the White House - the amount of stuff that they can throw at her (given that its not been thrown in the Democrat primaries to any real extent) is huge, and not all of it is fibs. That Sanders has got as close as he has, and that the rest of the field was largely purged in advance of decent rivals, would suggest she actually isn't that great a candidate.

Yes the legal / illegal Hispanic point is a valid one but put up against a Clinton I think it will be decisive. It's easy to forget just how adored the Clintons are still in many parts, and more importantly in the areas of the country that matter most. The name is the main thing in my view that is carrying her through against Sanders.

For every potentially damaging story in her closet The Donald will have two of, make no mistake about it the Democrats have got a fully loaded gun ready to unload on Trump. They fear a Rubio challenge much more than Trump.

 

[tsubaki]

Sanders has gotten as far as he has because liberals are not united behind Clinton, who reeks of a plastic talking point robo-candidate. However, given how extreme the GOP has pushed in this convention, I have no doubt that democrats (and liberal leaning moderates and independents) would rally behind Clinton as the lesser of two evils in a presidential campaign.

Perhaps, though that is the same sort of thinking - that "their" voters would have to vote for their candidate because they have nowhere else to go - that led to the GOP going for McCain / Palin and Romney / Ryan, and losing badly both times. She is a much weaker candidate than she was in 2008, now that she has a (bad) record to be pointed to.

Republicans are in equally bad shape because either Trump wins the nomination and forces moderates/independents to vote Clinton or the GOP nominates somebody else and Trump divides the party base.

I am not sure thats true either. Cruz winning the GOP nomination would genuinely terrify most human people in the US into voting for whoever was opposing him. Rubio cannot even energize his own campaign now, despite all the support he has from the establishment, so its hard to see him do much if he did get the pick. Trump on the other hand is getting support from all over and if he can win this fruitloop-dominated race, the actual election campaign will probably be an easier time for him.

 

[tsubaki]

Yes the legal / illegal Hispanic point is a valid one but put up against a Clinton I think it will be decisive. It's easy to forget just how adored the Clintons are still in many parts, and more importantly in the areas of the country that matter most. The name is the main thing in my view that is carrying her through against Sanders.

For every potentially damaging story in her closet The Donald will have two of, make no mistake about it the Democrats have got a fully loaded gun ready to unload on Trump. They fear a Rubio challenge much more than Trump.

That is no doubt what they are thinking, but its the same sort of wrong that has led the GOP to being in the position it is (and as an aside, very similar to Livingstone's big mistake when talking about Boris in the first Mayoral election).

Trump likes it when you talk about Trump, even when its trash being talked about Trump, because at the end of the day you are talking about Trump. No amount of slander, accurate criticism or indeed statements of fact that have been aimed his way during the Republican primaries has done anything to him, and there really isn't anything to suggest that actual smoking guns unearthed by the Democrats would do anything more than that. Lets not forget that he actually deliberately kicked off several scandals (that McCain POW criticism, the Megyn Kelly thing etc) himself.

If they do fear Rubio, I think that is more because of how they think they understand modern politics rather than any objective reality. They think that just because he is Latino then that he will attract that vote, in the same way that they thought Obama attracted the Black vote just because of his skin colour (as opposed to because he was a better candidate than Clinton, and because he was less terrifying than the idea of four years praying that McCain didn't keel over was), or the way that women have to vote for Hilary just because they share a gender.

Its the same sort of focus on "background" that blinds them into thinking someone must be good just because of what boxes they tick, rather than what they are like, or stand for, or have actually done - thinking which of course led to such hilarity in the Labour leadership election last summer.

 

[chewee]

yeah ive heard cruz is worse, what specific policies does he have that are worse?

No minimum wage, anti abortion, US should accept zero refugees, 11 million undocumented immigrants should never be granted citizenship regardless of how long they have lived in America, Attempted to filibuster Obamacare Bill, Climate change denier so much so he wants to expand Oil/Gas drilling and completely deregulate fracking regulations, His NRA rating is A+, Campaigning to overturn SC ruling on LGBT rights.

The next bit is copied and pasted from Washington Post:

Mr Cruz has highlighted “standing with Israel” as one of his key policy issues, saying its alliance with the US is a “strategic bedrock” for defence.

He claims that “on day one” as President he would make the US recognise Jerusalem as the “undivided capital of Israel”, effectively abolishing East Jerusalem, which is the part of the Occupied Palestinian Territories, which also claim the whole city as its capital.

Mr Cruz also said he would change policy towards the Palestinian Authority accusing it of “inciting hatred against Jews”.

He also claims the United Nations has an anti-Israel bias and pledged to withdraw public funding from any American university with a boycott Israel movement.

Claiming to defend “religious liberty” Mr Cruz cited the pilgrim fathers as evidence that American rights do not come from government but from God.

He appears to refer to “religious liberty” only within Christianity, talking about “our faith”

 

[chewee]

That is no doubt what they are thinking, but its the same sort of wrong that has led the GOP to being in the position it is (and as an aside, very similar to Livingstone's big mistake when talking about Boris in the first Mayoral election).

Trump likes it when you talk about Trump, even when its trash being talked about Trump, because at the end of the day you are talking about Trump. No amount of slander, accurate criticism or indeed statements of fact that have been aimed his way during the Republican primaries has done anything to him, and there really isn't anything to suggest that actual smoking guns unearthed by the Democrats would do anything more than that. Lets not forget that he actually deliberately kicked off several scandals (that McCain POW criticism, the Megyn Kelly thing etc) himself.

If they do fear Rubio, I think that is more because of how they think they understand modern politics rather than any objective reality. They think that just because he is Latino then that he will attract that vote, in the same way that they thought Obama attracted the Black vote just because of his skin colour (as opposed to because he was a better candidate than Clinton, and because he was less terrifying than the idea of four years praying that McCain didn't keel over was), or the way that women have to vote for Hilary just because they share a gender.

Its the same sort of focus on "background" that blinds them into thinking someone must be good just because of what boxes they tick, rather than what they are like, or stand for, or have actually done - thinking which of course led to such hilarity in the Labour leadership election last summer.

Trump has purposefully created the recent 'scandals' he's been caught up in to generate press, it will be a much different when the first shot is fired by a rival camp. It is a whole new world dealing with press scrutiny when you aren't the one dictating the story. The bombardment will be relentless, and not just from Democrats. Several prominent moderate Republicans have already suggested they'd vote against Trump should he win the nomination. Economic security is the bedrock for any Presidential candidate, Clinton will go hard on his previous troubles.

Obama was of course a much better candidate than Clinton in 08 but as Sanders has found out people do still feel more obliged to get up and do something if they have a direct connection through race/sex. There are many different factors but this is definitely one. The main thing to takeaway from this primary season in my view is the disillusionment with establishment Washington politics, it has greatly benefitted the Trump and Sanders campaigns. If that trend continues it will benefit Trump in the general, but will it convince the much converted independents? Probably not.

 

[Jib in lad]

Remember this, will Trump have the last word I hope not.

 

[tsubaki]

Trump has purposefully created the recent 'scandals' he's been caught up in to generate press, it will be a much different when the first shot is fired by a rival camp. It is a whole new world dealing with press scrutiny when you aren't the one dictating the story. The bombardment will be relentless, and not just from Democrats. Several prominent moderate Republicans have already suggested they'd vote against Trump should he win the nomination. Economic security is the bedrock for any Presidential candidate, Clinton will go hard on his previous troubles.

I don't think that it will. For a start, the GOP primaries have been so bitter that most of the most damaging lines against Trump will have already been used, and used from a more logical starting position (given that most of the GOP candidates can pose as capitalists better than Clinton can) than Clinton would be able to use, especially given Whitewater. Secondly, whilst some moderate GOP people might come out against Trump, its a bit much to expect that they would do so in a Trump vs Clinton race - the most she could probably expect is that they would stay home and STFU.

Obama was of course a much better candidate than Clinton in 08 but as Sanders has found out people do still feel more obliged to get up and do something if they have a direct connection through race/sex. There are many different factors but this is definitely one. The main thing to takeaway from this primary season in my view is the disillusionment with establishment Washington politics, it has greatly benefitted the Trump and Sanders campaigns. If that trend continues it will benefit Trump in the general, but will it convince the much converted independents? Probably not.

It all depends who wins the nominations. I think Trump would have a lot more trouble with Sanders because at the end of the day there are an awful lot of very valid criticisms of the modern American version of capitalism (which isn't that capitalist) that he would be able to make effectively, and as you suggest he has a similar air of authenticity about him. Clinton though I think is the wrong candidate for this race, and will probably run the main race in the wrong way - as you say, this primary season strongly suggests that people do not want a continuation of the establishment, and they certainly don't want a continuation of the establishment overseen by someone who does not have a very good record.