I'll admit as an American Toffee maybe my rationale is slightly different. More broadly I dont currently care much who the manager is. The larger problems are that the club's structure of decision making and their transfer business not being profitable and leading to eventual improved squads. Personally that is the main culprit of their mess.
We aren't gong to get relegated. A finish between 8 to 13 has almost zero relevance to my larger concerns or belief in the club. I admit that might be more of a US sentiment, where its acceptable to have down years at a trade off in relation to development and maturation. But finishing 7th means little if the likes of our best players leave the next window anyway. And if thats a result that was unlikely or based on players playing over their head it doesn't mean much. Regardless of where we finish we know the talent on this team currently and longterm arent close to a european conversation.
Regardless that looms as the goal, and hastily we have tried to achieve it. Year after year we make present focused decisions in the transfer market to simply stagnate in the same window of results. All with a hogwash of three managers toys that negate a larger club vision.
Rafael might not be the guy, but he shouldn't be as significant as he is. The core problem is Moshiri overstepping a DoF at every turn, or not hiring one he trusts for favoring immediate, big swing problem solving. That appears in signings that aren't appreciating, that wont get better in 3 years time and barely sustain similar league finishes.
My estimation is that this team should stop talking about Europe entirely, stop mentioning the rich 6. You want to consistently enter that conversation sign with upside and appreciation under a club model that extends past the manager and stop acting as if the sticker price or a players CV of prior clubs means anything. 2-3rds of the league have a better process of talent evaluation for their available resources. Those are your competitors and they will begin to close the gap. Time to wise up, plain and simple.