We aren't down and we aren't doomed, but we are massively odds on to go down, and we are in a significantly worse position than last year. We also won two unexpected home games last season in the run in against Chelsea and United. We will need to win even more unexpected points this season to have a chance.
Sunday is massive. It's not must win, but it's definitely must not lose. If we fail to get something, I think we need a miracle because it's another rival team who will almost certainly be out of our reach.
I always deep down expected us to get out of it last year. My heart still thinks we could do it, but my head says we aren't good enough. We have little or no margin for error left. Every game against a rival must be a positive result, and every home game must be at least a draw. It's possible but a huge ask.