Relegation

[ToffeeTim]

That’s not always the case though. It depends how many clubs are in for each player which pushes up the fee. We would probably lose 70% of the squad if we go down. This would bring in around £150-£200 million, maybe slightly more.

Championship wise the squad will more than likely be made up of academy players and players we have put out on loan.

Every team interested in our players will know how desperate we are to sell. It's really hard to know, but £200m could be a real stretch as a championship club.

This is off the top of my head, but these are the players I think could leave and the value we could get as a championship club.....

Richarlison £50m
DCL £35m
Pickford £15m
Mina £5m
Allan £2m
Gomes £2m
Doucoure £5m
Godfrey £10m
Alli £5m
Iwobi £10m
Gray £3m
Holgate £3m

That all adds up to only about £145m. I've maybe underestimated some of those fees, but I've probably overestimated some of them as well.

I don't see anyone taking Keane, Begovic, Rondon, Townsend, Davies, Coleman, Mykolenko, Patterson etc and I imagine we wouldn't sell Gordon unless a huge bid came in. Everyone out of contract would presumably go because we couldn't afford them, although they maybe would actually keep Kenny.

And we wouldn't obviously sell all of those in that list, because there probably wouldn't be interest for them all, and some would probably refuse to leave. The main thing is obviously getting players off the wage bill, and other clubs will be fully aware of that, and that will be reflected in the fees we can generate.

Generally it's a sellers market, but when you are in a desperate situation, it's anything but. Relegation will absolutely ruin us.

 

[MACCA75]

I think Burnley will get another 8 points and I just can’t see us matching that

 

[dan7787]

We've got a really tough run in, but we can absolutely be up for these fixtures. I'm writing Liverpool off but you just don't know with the other games, this season has been a Rollercoaster for most.

just like we were up for Leicester at home after a 10 day rest...

 

[trueblue84]

I think Burnley will get another 8 points and I just can’t see us matching that

I've thought we were down since about January. My opinion hasn't changed.

 

[ToffeeTim]

I don't think they will. Even if so, we'd under cut the fees in relation to wages. Gomes for example would gladly be turfed out for £5mill to keep his £100k a week or even just taking a slight hit on wages.

Richy and Dom would go for £50mill each I feel considering championship players at the same age are going for £30+mill.

Overall we'd have zero grounds for negotiation apart from "we need to get rid" and these players would want out due to their own ego. It's only Mina and Gomes we'd need to get shut of as they're on £100k a week. The rest are either out of contract or on an average prem wage which is sustainable in the championship for a club like ours (based on West ham and Newcastle doing the same).

I wouldn't say we'd go automatic promotion either.

I think £50m is realistic for Richarlison but wildly optimistic for DCL after this season. I'd be surprised if we got 35m for him.

I also reckon we'd all be surprised at just how many players we have on very high wages. It will be more than just Mina and Gomes.

 

[MrGrumpy]

We dont have horrendous debt either.

IF we went down we would sell DCL, Richarlison, Pickford and Mina which would more than cover the drop in revenue for 1-2 seasons. You also have over the next 6-18 months a massive amount of high earners off the books - Delph, Siggurdsson, Toshun, Gomes, Gbamin, Allan, Rondon, Townsend.

If Lampard stuck around we have the nucleus of a good young side which if we added to it under the new DOF who's supposedly highly rated then we stand a good chance of coming back up.

Patterson
Mykolenko
Gordon
Branthwaite
Godfrey
Iwobi

Would likely stick around and be more than good enough in that division.

Also BMD is still going ahead even if we went down.

I think we'll stay up as Burnley wont replicate last night again imo however if we do go down we have an opportunity to rebuild and get things right.

Even worse case scenario where we didnt come right back up, in 2 years time we would have a wage budget cut in half and a 53k stadium with revenues much higher than any side down there - we'll be too big to stay down.

People talk about Sunderland but that was a different scenario all together - their squad was barely even Championship standard and the owner (Short) turned the funding off and wouldn't cover losses etc leaving them owing over £150 million to the banks.

Moshiri would stick his hand in his pocket and cover the losses as he has done for the last few years thankfully.

Not about him sticking his hand in his pocket. We have losses over £300 million, even selling half the players wouldn’t cover it. The loss of revenue in the championship is huge.
We have no money to spend at all in the championship and we might even start minus points as our losses are way way over the FL rules

 

[EFC78]

Not if you saw them play last night.

They played with passion , hunger and intensity all qualities that we failed to display the previous night.

Their games are far easier than ours.

I'm not being doom and gloom but I'd make them favourites to stay up ahead of us.

Which is a tougher game...Man Utd (6th with 54 points) or Norwich (20th with 21 points).

Because in the last 2 weeks we beat 6th placed Man Utd and Burnley were comfortably defeated by bottom of the league.

Where did their so called passion and hunger over ours, get them in that weekend? This simplistic look at the fixture list from some fans is distorting the reality of this relegation battle.

Both teams are very poor but at present we have done enough to be 1 point ahead having played a game less.

We may still go down of course, but the way some are making out that Burnley are now some battling side that will ease to 3 victories in 6 is just not an accurate reflection of how bad their side actually is.

 

[Petit]

I just had a look at Burnleys fixtures and compared them to ours. There is absolutely no chance we’re staying up.
We could easily get 0 pts from the next for four games and in that time Burnley could realistically win twice and draw another.

 

[larrygobfiend]

it’s easier to take once you come to terms with the fact we’re down. I’ve thought it since December… possibly earlier than that.

The club needs a reality check and a reset so it might turn out to be a blessing in disguise if we can get back up straight away.

 

[Ring master]

I've thought we were down since about January. My opinion hasn't changed.

I always said in Dec/Jan that if we were by the bottom 3 going into April we were in massive trouble, and as ever with Everton they always kept to things you expect and very rarely surprise us - Will take some doing for us to get out of this if somehow we did

 

[MACCA75]

The penny just didn’t (hasn’t) drop with our players. Holgate recently giving an interview talking about getting in the England team.
DCL talking about winning trophies.

These players won’t realise they are in a fight until they are sparked out on the canvas.

 

[Bluedyhell]

Not if you saw them play last night.

They played with passion , hunger and intensity all qualities that we failed to display the previous night.

Their games are far easier than ours.

I'm not being doom and gloom but I'd make them favourites to stay up ahead of us.

Agree. Burnley it would appear are a different team now with a different style. This morning I woke up with a sick and empty feeling in my stomach. Horrible. I am pacing the house already. Like proper love I guess.

 

[kenada_blue]

I think £50m is realistic for Richarlison but wildly optimistic for DCL after this season. I'd be surprised if we got 35m for him.

I also reckon we'd all be surprised at just how many players we have on very high wages. It will be more than just Mina and Gomes.

Maybe but the big hitters will be sold and the rest are out of contract, we'll look a lot healthier

Can't see how Pickford, Doucoure, Keane, Gray, Iwobi would be on stupid wages (who'd be left). Maybe Rondon.

 

[EFC78]

37 points will see us safe in my opinion and that means 2 wins and 2 draws. There are 2 wins achievable from Brentford H, Palace H and Watford A. 7 points from them games is achievable and then we'd just need a point more from one of the tougher games. No reason why we can't take a point from Chelsea H or Leicester A.

And that's if Burnley even push it that far. We will see on Sunday whether they are likely to. They'd need to beat Wolves to show they are capable of getting to 37 and I don't think they will. Wolves are a decent side and will make it tough for them.

 

[Bluedyhell]

Which is a tougher game...Man Utd (6th with 54 points) or Norwich (20th with 21 points).

Because in the last 2 weeks we beat 6th placed Man Utd and Burnley were comfortably defeated by bottom of the league.

Where did their so called passion and hunger over ours, get them in that weekend? This simplistic look at the fixture list from some fans is distorting the reality of this relegation battle.

Both teams are very poor but at present we have done enough to be 1 point ahead having played a game less.

We may still go down of course, but the way some are making out that Burnley are now some battling side that will ease to 3 victories in 6 is just not an accurate reflection of how bad their side actually is.

Last sentence should read 'actually was'.