Despite everything, somehow - amazingly - it's still in our own hands.
Do I trust these players to get the results we need?
Home:
Chelsea - cannot finish top two, won't finish below 4th
Brentford - guaranteed safety, cannot finish in Europe
Palace - guaranteed safety, cannot finish in Europe
Away:
Leicester - guaranteed safety, cannot finish in Europe, one eye on European competition
Watford - will very likely already be relegated
Arsenal - the only team with something left to play for as they're in the mix for 4th place, and it's likely to go down to the final game or two.
I believe our true rivals now are Leeds, as I see Burnley more than capable of another 8+ points, which pushes them to 40. They have momentum and easy fixtures against teams with little to play for.
If I'm generous to Leeds, they take 7 points from games against Palace (a), Brighton (h) and Brentford (a), Chelsea (h), games against City (h) and Arsenal (a) lost.
40 points therefore would keep us up on goal difference. So I reckon 11 points does it.
I don't think we will get 11 more points.