If we can't attract Fonseca then we are going struggle to get anyone of promise in. We still have good selling points as a club but if I was someone looking from the outside, I'd be concerned at the structure, particularly one that led to such spectacular failure with transfers. How could a new manager trust Walsh's judgement on players?
There won't be as much transfer activity this summer as last, with WC year and the potential upheaval with staffing off the pitch. Even if those factors didn't come into the equation, I have doubts that we are going to spend much at all, with Tosun and Walcott already bought in January and no players that would generate a big fee if sold.
Sooner or later, they will also have to start factoring in the costs associated with BMD and surely that will have an impact on transfer budgets at least midway through a new managers initial contract.
Therefore I think the rebuilding job will have to be modest season by season and probably no more than three/four new signings in the summer, a couple from cheaper markets, and a new manager will have to be comfortable with that, as would we in terms of whatever expectations are there. Even within those parameters though, the right manager making the right targeted signings can have a big positive impact. We are so far behind now though, that we are back to the scenario where it's likely going to take most or all of a new manager's first contract to sort out the mess. That impacts and limits the type of candidates available and interested as there is going to be no silver bullet to fix our problems and no nonsense talk of a guy being poached by Barcelona if we win three on the bounce. Our message has to be that if you're doing things tight and making gradual but continuous progress, you will get time here.
All in all, I think we have at least a 50:50 chance on Fonseca, perhaps more. I don't think he has done enough to attract serious interest from the elite clubs who just don't need to take the risks that we do.