Mosh is an accountant at heart. To understand his basis for all business decisions you need to understand accountants. Accountants provide financial structure and operational certainty to most businesses. They run detailed financial models on everything before they acquire. They are by nature the most risk adverse professionals I know and decisions are based on as close as one can get to financial certainty. If we work forward from that basis we can track through the last two years.
When we dropped to 17th he simply panicked not only because he feared relegation but because not being clearly safe of the drop would throw off his funding and cash flow model thereby directly impacting his ability to finance the new stadium and broker all the local deals he needed to make this happen on what he saw as acceptable terms.
My educated guess is that all of the financial models and payback schedules were based on Everton in the premiership and likely top 12 as a minimum. Occasionally being in in Europe would be a bonus and dropping lower would require the injection of more personal equity and having less funds for transfers. He needs the TV revenue and profit from player sales. Dropping leagues and making bad buys are two things that would be inherently unacceptable to him.
When he could not get who he wanted right away or would not pay Watford's price he went with the financially safe choice of someone who if nothing else can historically guarantee safety. Despite his desire to play quality football Mosh cannot risk the overall plan to move the project forward. In his mind Mosh wrote the football side of the season off as soon as he hired Sam in favor of long term business security. Remember this is the guy who factors expected losses into his plans.
Do you think there is any coincidence that Meis comes out of the woodwork just weeks after we are safe? Not a chance. As far as the capacity goes, it’s already in the model, they know they just won't tell you. How else do you factor repayment into the model and seek preliminary financing and deal approval without knowing the approximate capacity?
I believe he has also realized that Walsh is not good enough to implement part two of his plan, which is the resale of assets for profit. Recruitment has been both poor and overpriced and we failed moving Barkley for fair value. The financial model would have accounted for the appreciation of purchased assets not their depreciation in value which is what we have seen. Walsh will be gone and replaced because with him the business model is failing. There is no other way to judge him.
I am also guessing Sam knew when he was hired he was not a long term solution despite all the talk to the contrary. His job is done. He was never the long term solution and he knows it. It was a chance for him to retire after a successful stint of keeping another team up and not as the quasi criminal fired manager of England. We stay up and move forward on the stadium and he gets to write his own ending.
We get to reset after the season. I just hope we have learned our lesson.
Sorry for the length, I got carried away.
I particularly like term - “quasi criminal “ to describe Allardyce.
I may use that in the future.
Thanks x