Stats based look at things

[UltraVires]

Manager	Goals	Shots	SOT	SOT %	SOT to Goal conversion %	Shots to Goal Conversion Rate %	Corners	Booking PTS	Offsides	Freekicks	Fouls	Tackles	Interceptions	Possesion %	GK Saves	Passes
Rafael (20 games)	1.20	12.35	3.95	32	30	10	4.30	22.25	1.55	11.40	9.70	18.90	10.15	41.15	2.75	342.30
Frank (9 games)	0.89	10.89	2.89	27	31	8	4.11	29.44	2.00	12.11	11.22	19.00	8.22	43.78	4.33	379.11
Difference	-0.31	-1.46	-1.06	-5.00	1.00	-2.00	-0.19	7.19	0.45	0.71	1.52	0.10	-1.93	2.63	1.58	36.81
League Average	1.4	12.85	4.42	34	32	11	5.26	19.09	1.77	11.93	10.27	16.29	9.72	50	2.96	449.65

I keep these kind of stats for every team in the league (admittedly for gambling) so i went and had a look at Rafael vs Lampard and i was kind of stunned to see that we are statistically doing worse under Lampard then we had done under the other fella. Im not seeking to start another debate as i believe we were doomed with the first fella but it does look like things have gotten even worse, which is something i could never have thought possible. I dont believe firing Lampard achieves anything and long term i think he could do something positive, but going on the numbers it will be hard work to keep us up.

We average less goals, less shots, less SOT (7% off league average is substantial), and less shots to goal % (8% is pitiful), we do have more possession and play more passes, which leads to us getting more free kicks, but even still we are fouling more and our booking PTS are up 7 pts a game due to three red cards mainly. Pickford is making two saves a game more as well

Opposition

Manager	Goals	Shots	SOT	SOT %	SOT to Goal conversion %	Shots to Goal Conversion Rate %	Corners	Booking PTS	Offsides	Freekicks	Fouls	Tackles	Interceptions	Possesion %	GK Saves	Passes
Rafael (20 games)	1.79	13.48	4.97	35	38	13	5.55	17.59	0.97	11.86	10.66	17.07	9.34	58.85	2.72	492.79
Frank (9 games)	1.89	14.22	5.89	41	32	13	4.67	13.33	1.11	13.22	11.00	19.11	10.78	56.22	2.56	433.78
Difference	0.10	0.74	0.92	6.00	-6.00	0.00	-0.88	-4.26	0.14	1.36	0.34	2.04	1.44	-2.63	-0.16	-59.01
League Average	1.4	12.85	4.42	34	32	11	5.26	19.09	1.77	11.93	10.27	16.29	9.72	50	2.96	449.65

Gets worse when you look at our opposition, who on average are scoring more, having more shots and more SOT but a lesser % of those SOT are ending up as goals (remember Pickford is making 2 more saves a game now). We are giving up less corners but opposition are also averaging less booking PTS but giving up more fouls, which probably suggests we arent doing things at speed or in dangerous areas of the pitch where bookings are more likely. We are also giving up more freekicks. Due to having more possession and playing more passes we are being fouled more and intercepted more but opposition keepers are still making same number of saves. We have reduced the number of opposition passes per game by nearly 60.

Numbers are numbers and can be played with and manipulated in lots of ways, one thing they do show, without question is that things havent gotten any better and probably have gotten worse. The only areas we are above league average is tackling and interceptions and thats not good (but it is when the bookies set your tackle line vs Burnley at 15.5).

Hopefully we get away with it and next year this is all forgotten about, but the numbers say it will be very very difficult.

Great stuff mate, do you have a comparison of our stats under Rafael and Lampard versus the teams around us rather than the league average?

I think us and the teams around us are well below average so perhaps those comparisons will allow us to speculate on whether a 1 point advantage is going to be enough to get us over the safety line or whether we will tumble down the leagues as we all fear/expect

 

[Buzz Lightroom]

Benitez's last 9 Prem games
W 1, D 2, L 6
Goals Scored 8
Goals Conceded 18
Goal Difference -10
Points Gained 5

Lampard's First 9 Prem games
W 2, D 0, L 7
Goals Scored 8
Goals Conceded 17
Goal Difference -9
Points Gained 6

So based purely on those stats there's really not much in it but Lampard has gained 1 extra point and conceded 1 less goal.
Both have been awful and both showing relegation form.

The one consistent thing under both managers....... the players.

 

[bring back the catt]

So what's our league position after all of that?

National League by the read of things.

 

[parallelcircles]

Some xG data to add.

Benitez
Average xG for 1.32
Average xG Against 1.69
Average xG differential -0.375 (15th out of 20)

Quite poor even with horrid injury luck. Not up to our standards even with this squad.

Lampard
Average xG for 1.02
Average xG against 1.86
Average xG differential -0.833 (19th out of 20)

It's gone from one of the most disappointing Everton seasons in Premier League history to one of the most disappointing seasons in Premier League history for ANY club under Frank Lampard.

I had been convinced by others despite initial resistance that Benitez was the problem and replacing him with anyone, even Changy, would improve the situation. Unfortunately Frank has proven so far to be the worst appointment in the quite proud history of Everton Football Club.

 

[HeltSkelt]

National League by the read of things.

Lets look on the positive side. In a couple of seasons we'll be in with a chance of winning the JPT, a new trophy for our cabinet.

 

[NeroCeasar]

Youve taken Benitez' first 20 games.

Surely it makes more sense to compare his last 20 games?

His first 20 games were his last 20 games, thank God.

Or even the last games for Lampard/Benitez and compare them.

Benitez had a decent first few games start which skew the stats.

Will see what I can do

Great stuff mate, do you have a comparison of our stats under Rafael and Lampard versus the teams around us rather than the league average?

I think us and the teams around us are well below average so perhaps those comparisons will allow us to speculate on whether a 1 point advantage is going to be enough to get us over the safety line or whether we will tumble down the leagues as we all fear/expect

I have the stats but need to run a comparison, I'll see if I get a chance tomorrow at some stage

 

[Zatara]

His first 20 games were his last 20 games, thank God.

Will see what I can do

I have the stats but need to run a comparison, I'll see if I get a chance tomorrow at some stage

Without being pedantic Benitez managed 22 games

Anyway i think if you look at the total Lampard games and the same number of Benitez' games before he was sacked...then you'll see there has been an improvement.

 

[4737carlin]

Benitez's last 9 Prem games
W 1, D 2, L 6
Goals Scored 8
Goals Conceded 18
Goal Difference -10
Points Gained 5

Lampard's First 9 Prem games
W 2, D 0, L 7
Goals Scored 8
Goals Conceded 17
Goal Difference -9
Points Gained 6

So based purely on those stats there's really not much in it but Lampard has gained 1 extra point and conceded 1 less goal.
Both have been awful and both showing relegation form.

The one consistent thing under both managers....... the players.

Your last line is spot on, neither manager can be blamed any more then the other for our relegation, neither stood a chance with this rubbish.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

What is the length of the hypotenuse if Dom's legs are 10 and 12 and will this number help to keep us up?

 

[Colonel Getafe]

So what's our league position after all of that?

21rd according to my calculations...

 

[Thomasc]

I despise fatty

Quite like Lampard

It’s Lampard for me.

 

[Colonel Getafe]

Lets look on the positive side. In a couple of seasons we'll be in with a chance of winning the JPT, a new trophy for our cabinet.

We'll probably be stripped of it for breaching finance rules, or denied a place in the final due to Tranmere winning some fair play league or something. Would be just our luck. (Well, either that or we win it and our best player trips down the Wembley steps, does a cruciate or two and is out for a year n half). ?

 

[WA Toffee]

Your last line is spot on, neither manager can be blamed any more then the other for our relegation, neither stood a chance with this rubbish.

Not sure, we were 8th this time last season, with an outside chance of top 4 with pretty much the same squad. It's too simplistic to just say it's because the players are rubbish

 

[BrendanGOT]

Basically, lamps is getting sacked

 

[larbert toffee]

How much for a pair?