Why Chelsea are still a better bet for the top four than Everton
Romelu Lukaku's displays during Everton's impressive start to the season are embarrassing Chelsea – but José Mourinho will probably have the last laugh despite their stuttering form
Now that Chelsea are struggling for goals, have been scared by Crystal Palace and beaten by Sunderland in the space of a week and seen the season's first silverware opportunity go by the board, it seems obvious José Mourinho made a major miscalculation on the last day of summer transfer trading by assuming Samuel Eto'o would have more of an impact up front than Romelu Lukaku.
The latter's form at Everton is already embarrassing Chelsea, but under the terms of the deal he cannot be recalled until the end of the season.
Everton have him until summer, and they are using him to push towards the Champions League places. The doomsday scenario for Mourinho must be that Everton manage to grab a top-four spot at Chelsea's expense, returning Lukaku just in time for a run in the Europa League.
It is an entertaining possibility, but for several reasons it is unlikely to happen. Though strongest of the chasing group so far this season, Everton have won only half their 16 matches this season. The four clubs above them have all managed 10 wins or more, and whether Chelsea's form is stuttering or not, that makes the present top-four favourites to finish as the final top four.
For Everton to achieve a Champions League finish, three fairly unlikely things have to happen. One, they must continue playing well for the rest of the season, beating rivals such as Liverpool (at Anfield), City (Everton lost at the Etihad) and Chelsea (without Lukaku) when the head-to-heads come along. Two, one of the present top four (Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea and City) will have to drop out of contention. Three, Manchester United will have to remain out of the picture in mid-table and not complicate proceedings by climbing back into the reckoning in the second half of the season.
The last condition may not appear wholly unlikely at the moment, though United's next three games are against West Ham, Hull and Norwich, so it might be wise to check the situation again at the end of the year. The way Liverpool, and Luis Suárez in particular, have been performing suggests they are capable of remaining in the title race, not just the top four, for the foreseeable future. With City finally beginning to look ominously good, you could be looking at Arsenal and Chelsea as potential weak links in the present top four. Outrageous, I know, but even Mourinho would admit Chelsea are underachieving at present and there were signs at the Etihad on Saturday that all might not be completely happy within the Arsenal camp if important results remain elusive.
Those are the straws Everton must clutch at if they harbour hopes of a Champions League berth, and they are having a terrific season. Tottenham, who are not, have just sacked their manager on the pretext that they had no confidence André Villas-Boas could guide them to a top-four finish, and while the league table and the majority of Spurs fans would not disagree with that conclusion, the writing was on the wall as soon as Arsenal and Liverpool made such impressive starts to the season. Spurs must have been hoping to leapfrog their north London neighbours to claim a claim a top-four place, because at the start of the season, with no realistic prospect of Chelsea, City or United dropping out, Arsenal appeared the weakest link.
No sooner did that perception change and United fall off the pace than Liverpool stepped up to take advantage. So even if United fail to rally this season, there are still two north-west clubs and two London clubs ahead of Everton and Spurs. If Spurs were hoping to make a significant gain on Liverpool at the weekend they were sadly mistaken. They could not make a top-four spot last season with Gareth Bale in the side, and the best that can be said of his replacements is that between them they have so far failed to come up with the galvanising effect Welshman managed by himself in the past. If you were invited to put money now on Spurs finishing above United in the table, never mind cracking the Champions League or getting past Arsenal, you probably wouldn't be trampled in the rush.
