You'll get VARRED if you have utter dung refs. Which I suspect might be all of them.
Never a pen. Disliking a defender turning his back is mute.
The point is that it's unnatural to not be looking where the ball is. I wish we just stuck by the letter of the law and cut out 90% of these decisions by only calling clear and obvious deliberate ones as pens on defenders, and anything which gains an advantage as a handball by an attacker.
But the referees clearly aren't going to down that route so defenders are going to have to adapt and be ultra careful. The first year will be messy with this VAR. I'm not a fan.