2024/25 Relegation Battle (Without Everton!)

[Toffeepot]

Forget the game in hand. That’s gone

The RS won't like a baying Goodison. We have a decent record against them at home
Don't write it off at all

 

[Vintage]

Forget the game in hand. That’s gone

A couple here were calling for a 2nd string team for the Goodison derby last season to rest players for the next game as it was a forgone conclusion we would lose. We won 2-0

 

[GoldenToffee]

The RS won't like a baying Goodison. We have a decent record against them at home
Don't write it off at all

I mostly agree, but it's just so hard to see any teams take points off them as they simply have so much firepower. Klopp really did leave them in amazing shape, so much so that Slot has barely needed to lift a finger and they're still pissing the league. With a bit of luck (in a derby, haha) we could do them though.

 

[Tipp blue]

View attachment 291503

2 of the big 6 making the list time to rethink who or how many are the BIG.

 

[blackie_jones75]

I mostly agree, but it's just so hard to see any teams take points off them as they simply have so much firepower. Klopp really did leave them in amazing shape, so much so that Slot has barely needed to lift a finger and they're still pissing the league. With a bit of luck (in a derby, haha) we could do them though.

It’s even more annoying the teams around them screwing up basically presenting them the league. We got a chance of a draw or scraping a win though

 

[_jamlev]

I decided to completely nerd out to get my head around the relegation battle by looking at goals conceded as a metric for who stays up.

Based on the last three years, the teams that get relegated usually concede on average 70/75 goals. Generally, the surviving teams concede about 60 (with some weird outliers like Leeds who stayed up with 80+ conceded).

Based on the first half of the season these would be the goals conceded at the end of the season:

Everton: 50 goals conceded
Wolves: 88 goals conceded
Ipswich: 75 goals conceded
Leicester: 84 goals conceded
Southampton: 86 goals conceded

I think these are a little high, as generally relegation fighting teams tighten up defensively in the second half of the season, so could probably knock 5-8 goals off these.

Obviously a lot of variables to consider, for one under Moyes we will likely concede slightly more but score slightly more (and we've played one less game). And other stuff like Leicester sacking Ruud and hiring Dyche.

Edit: IF Leicester sack Rudd and hire Dyche

 

[Titus Bramble]

I decided to completely nerd out to get my head around the relegation battle by looking at goals conceded as a metric for who stays up.

Based on the last three years, the teams that get relegated usually concede on average 70/75 goals. Generally, the surviving teams concede about 60 (with some weird outliers like Leeds who stayed up with 80+ conceded).

Based on the first half of the season these would be the goals conceded at the end of the season:

Everton: 50 goals conceded
Wolves: 88 goals conceded
Ipswich: 75 goals conceded
Leicester: 84 goals conceded
Southampton: 86 goals conceded

I think these are a little high, as generally relegation fighting teams tighten up defensively in the second half of the season, so could probably knock 5-8 goals off these.

Obviously a lot of variables to consider, for one under Moyes we will likely concede slightly more but score slightly more (and we've played one less game). And other stuff like Leicester sacking Ruud and hiring Dyche.

Edit: IF Leicester sack Rudd and hire Dyche

I've had a look at how many points the 18th placed team has finished on the last 10 seasons (14/15 through to 23/24) and therefore their PPG.

Avg points across those 10 years: 33, therefore avg PPG: 0.87. In that time, the highest points achieved but still relegated was the barcodes in 15/16: 37 points, PPG: 0.97.

Ultimately, if you achieve 1 point per game across a season, chances are you're safe.

We're currently tracking on 0.95 PPG which would have us finish on 36 points... this will have seen us relegated once in the last 10 years. If we as a minimum maintain our PPG tally (I'd obviously hope for improvement), we're probably going to be fine.

I'm now going to hand over to someone else with the time/inclination to see how your goals conceded info fits in with relegated teams

 

[MikeH72]

I decided to completely nerd out to get my head around the relegation battle by looking at goals conceded as a metric for who stays up.

Based on the last three years, the teams that get relegated usually concede on average 70/75 goals. Generally, the surviving teams concede about 60 (with some weird outliers like Leeds who stayed up with 80+ conceded).

Based on the first half of the season these would be the goals conceded at the end of the season:

Everton: 50 goals conceded
Wolves: 88 goals conceded
Ipswich: 75 goals conceded
Leicester: 84 goals conceded
Southampton: 86 goals conceded

I think these are a little high, as generally relegation fighting teams tighten up defensively in the second half of the season, so could probably knock 5-8 goals off these.

Obviously a lot of variables to consider, for one under Moyes we will likely concede slightly more but score slightly more (and we've played one less game). And other stuff like Leicester sacking Ruud and hiring Dyche.

Edit: IF Leicester sack Rudd and hire Dyche

I think we’ll concede a few more under Moyes due to not having every outfield player cowering in our own penalty area, but that will be offset by scoring more.

 

[Titus Bramble]

I think we’ll concede a few more under Moyes due to not having every outfield player cowering in our own penalty area, but that will be offset by scoring more.

And we should therefore pick up more points. It's better to win 2-0, lose 2-0, win 2-0 etc than it is to draw 1-1 each week.

 

[Timhowardsswearbox]

And we should therefore pick up more points. It's better to win 2-0, lose 2-0, win 2-0 etc than it is to draw 0-0 each week.

FTFY

 

[GoldenToffee]

I've had a thought about how we can avoid relegation even if we're deep in the mire in the final games.

I know the club cannot dictate which players are available for the opposition, but as a private business Everton Football Club is fully allowed to dictate who may and may not enter its premises. The club does not even need to give a reason for denying entry to Goodison Park.

Think of it like a casino - if you're a particularly good player you'll get security escorting you out of the premises in no time as you're taking too much money off them. You can moan all you like, but that will only make it worse for you. If they notice you approaching next time, they are fully in their rights to tell you you are not allowed to enter the casino at all, and if you do then you are trespassing and can then be arrested by the police as that is illegal.

Our final three home games of the season are City, Ipswich and Southampton, surely the club could just ban a handful of each team's best players and thus give itself a huge advantage in each game. A quick email to Sheikh Mansour would do it for City: "Dear Mr Mansour, this is notice that the following players are no longer permitted to enter the premises of Goodison Park, L4 4EL in Liverpool: Haaland, Manoush, De Bruyne, Ederson, Dias, Savinho. Should any of these individuals be found to have entered the premises, the police will be called to immediately escort them away. Warm regards, Daniel Friedkin."

I am surprised nobody has thought of this before.

 

[Saint Domingo]

Van Nistlerooy having altercations with players now. They look like a sinking ship

 

[ToffeeScot]

Van Nistlerooy having altercations with players now. They look like a sinking ship

I reckon our game could determine if he stays or goes.

 

[Harryflashman]

2 of the big 6 making the list time to rethink who or how many are the BIG.

It’s a shame the PSR rules , changes to squad /subs and the new European competition structure haven’t quite weighted the deck enough in their favour , I’m assuming we’ll need an emergency meeting or two to sort this asap .

 

[Titus Bramble]

Van Nistlerooy having altercations with players now. They look like a sinking ship

Not seen this... what's going on?