Confirmed Signing Abdoulaye Doucouré

[TheBigIguana]

Opta is around since the early 90s mate, that really brought stats into the public domain and narrative and stats were around well before it. History is littered with historical managers different take on it and applying it, in some shape or form, I thought it was a bit silly to say the only stats around were ones used for clean sheets etc, I actually find modern stats a bit dumbed down and well open to rebuttle.

Take tackles attempted and tackles won, if you play for Watford and you get munted every week the frequency of tackles you are trying will be high, with increased frequency, the higher the probability of failure. Then you might have Fernandinho at City, City might hold pocession for 80% of play, he might make 10 tackles in ten games, wins seven and has a 70% success rate. That’s before you look at comparisons of quality of team mates as a variable.

Also what the stats won’t tell you is that City will play with a midfield five, while Watford play with a two, that the subjective and environmental context piece.

Stats are inherently flawed because you can’t compare like for like, Football is inequitable, subjective, has different contexts, frequencies and varibles.

Im not polarised I find stats useful and i use them at times to inform, but I’m open minded and experienced to know they aren’t even 20% of an overall picture.

I see it as 50/50. 50 percent watching the player and evaluating him that way and 50% checking the numbers to try and eliminate biases, make sure you aren't missing things, make sure you didn't just catch him on a good or bad day and whatever else. But even at 20% that is a lot of value and something you can't ignore like the prevailing wisdom on here seems to be. I know you aren't saying that but you do seem to rate them pretty low.

The part about possession I addressed. They adjust stats like tackles for possession. People are aware of exactly what you've said and have fixed that problem (or at least attempted to). I don't know if the thing I posted was possession adjusted but the last version of those stats for Doucoure don't paint him in a better light fwiw.

Does that mean he can't tackle? Not necessarily but you need to look and find a compelling reason why he isn't doing it. Same goes for his lack of forward passing. If you watch the games and can pinpoint why these things might be showing up on the stat sheet than at that point you could make the move anyway. For me that isn't happening here because a. Capoue does tackle and intercept at a better rate and b. I don't think they have such a bad set of forwards that passing the ball to them would be as hard as he makes it look.

 

[MondayHater]

So are we going to buy this sort or are we saving up for Messi?

Isn’t he 33.....the forum would break down with negative thoughts around here if we signed him!!

 

[TheBigIguana]

It's funny, I look at stats a fair bit but I much prefer to judge a player by my eye test.

I don't think stats were enormously prevalent in the 80's, you'd have probably gone on eye test, get a scout to watch them lots, comments made by existing players or people you knew in the game etc.

I think stats can help frame a player. I saw some earlier that put Doucoure above average for carrying the ball, top 10% in his position for pressuring, and below average for all else. But he was playing as a number 10, in a poor team, with 4 different managers. So what allowances do you make?

There are things stats I don't think can ever tell you. Character for one. Also how they react in situations. If you watch a game, you quickly get an idea of who is the key player judging by how others around treat them.

I like Doucoure having watched him anyway. He's big and powerful and can do a bit of everything.

Fwiw I've found some stuff going back the last couple of years and those years he was just as bad at the things the stats show him being bad at this year. So I'm not sure all those caveats apply.

 

[gonetomorrow]

Isn’t he 33.....the forum would break down with negative thoughts around here if we signed him!!

Haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa Haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa! Sign Messi.

Throw money at him.

 

[catcherintherye]

Fwiw I've found some stuff going back the last couple of years and those years he was just as bad at the things the stats show him being bad at this year. So I'm not sure all those caveats apply.

From a statistical perspective, how do you rate him? He seems to be excellent (like top 4 levels) of ball pressure, solid at ball carrying and below par at most other things (some poor). It's funny,as eye test would have told me he was decent at passing.

 

[Neiler]

It's funny, I look at stats a fair bit but I much prefer to judge a player by my eye test.

I don't think stats were enormously prevalent in the 80's, you'd have probably gone on eye test, get a scout to watch them lots, comments made by existing players or people you knew in the game etc.

I think stats can help frame a player. I saw some earlier that put Doucoure above average for carrying the ball, top 10% in his position for pressuring, and below average for all else. But he was playing as a number 10, in a poor team, with 4 different managers. So what allowances do you make?

There are things stats I don't think can ever tell you. Character for one. Also how they react in situations. If you watch a game, you quickly get an idea of who is the key player judging by how others around treat them.

I like Doucoure having watched him anyway. He's big and powerful and can do a bit of everything.

I think stats come and go, come into vogue then leave, XG and XA were the bright hope a few a years ago before the obvious flaws became apparent for practical purposes. Stats evolve to, but they have been in the game a long time in many forms you can go back to Charles Hughes and Pomo in the 30s right the way up, there has always been a bright shiny modern stat base in an era.

I also agree mate I like a balanced approach I like the eye test with a solid back up, but I also like to apply context or environment like you say in your Doucoure profile.

Stats are one contribution of many, I just think if you use them to inform a concrete judgement wholly it’s a naieve.

I also like him, a big powerful presence, I can’t remember the last time we’ve had it, but I’m excited by the combos, Allan, Gbamin, Doucoure that strikes me as a powerful, purposeful, high energy and imposing combo. I’m also thinking of what holding play further up the pitch and unlocking could enable, if we can make the ball stick from midfield up we can unlock our forward players who have been living of scraps, certainly since after the restart. It’s the blend and combos I like and what it could enable.

 

[Goat]

Fwiw I've found some stuff going back the last couple of years and those years he was just as bad at the things the stats show him being bad at this year. So I'm not sure all those caveats apply.

I think the problem is you are looking at him as if hes a 6, like Gomes hes an 8.

Hes not going to be good at everything, Gana wasnt good at everything, very few players are.

 

[TheBigIguana]

From a statistical perspective, how do you rate him? He seems to be excellent (like top 4 levels) of ball pressure, solid at ball carrying and below par at most other things (some poor). It's funny,as eye test would have told me he was decent at passing.

Statistically I rate him as someone who can do a few things but not the two things that I'd want most in a midfielder. The pressing thing is great but him not really winning the ball on his own kind of ruins it I'd say. The passing being that far below average is simply not what I'd want to see unless he was putting in Gana levels of defensive work.

 

[TheBigIguana]

I think the problem is you are looking at him as if hes a 6, like Gomes hes an 8.

Hes not going to be good at everything, Gana wasnt good at everything, very few players are.

If he's an 8 he needs to be good at passing the ball forward. He is not.

 

[catcherintherye]

Statistically I rate him as someone who can do a few things but not the two things that I'd want most in a midfielder. The pressing thing is great but him not really winning the ball on his own kind of ruins it I'd say. The passing being that far below average is simply not what I'd want to see unless he was putting in Gana levels of defensive work.

What 2 things do you want most from a midfielder?

Very few players will be Gana levels of winning the ball back!

I'd say he was a statistically quite unusual player. He's a bit of a mismatch and probably why he hasn't settled in a position. Might suit playing in a 2 in a 4, due to his versatility perhaps.

 

[Neiler]

I see it as 50/50. 50 percent watching the player and evaluating him that way and 50% checking the numbers to try and eliminate biases, make sure you aren't missing things, make sure you didn't just catch him on a good or bad day and whatever else. But even at 20% that is a lot of value and something you can't ignore like the prevailing wisdom on here seems to be. I know you aren't saying that but you do seem to rate them pretty low.

The part about possession I addressed. They adjust stats like tackles for possession. People are aware of exactly what you've said and have fixed that problem (or at least attempted to). I don't know if the thing I posted was possession adjusted but the last version of those stats for Doucoure don't paint him in a better light fwiw.

Does that mean he can't tackle? Not necessarily but you need to look and find a compelling reason why he isn't doing it. Same goes for his lack of forward passing. If you watch the games and can pinpoint why these things might be showing up on the stat sheet than at that point you could make the move anyway. For me that isn't happening here because a. Capoue does tackle and intercept at a better rate and b. I don't think they have such a bad set of forwards that passing the ball to them would be as hard as he makes it look.

It’s ok disagree mate, you value stats more then me and that’s fine. I use them a lot to and I apply them I’m aware of there advantages and flaws. We disagree a lot about their overall value and that’s fine. We’ve both have given good reasons as to why. Playing some statistical football games and interacting with others I know everyone has different approaches and apply values to them.

I just take with a pinch of salt, arguments or judgments based or proven by stats to be honest, not being dismissive or personal saying that.

Do you play anything like FPL or any of the high stat games mate? You’d enjoy them and probably be competitve if stats are your thing.

 

[TheBigIguana]

What 2 things do you want most from a midfielder?

Very few players will be Gana levels of winning the ball back!

I'd say he was a statistically quite unusual player. He's a bit of a mismatch and probably why he hasn't settled in a position. Might suit playing in a 2 in a 4, due to his versatility perhaps.

Forward passing and ball winning. At least in the system we are playing. Now if we're playing 4-3-3 and he's an 8 the ball winning is less important but the forward passing is more so and as he's bad at both it still doesn't thrill me.

 

[TheBigIguana]

It’s ok disagree mate, you value stats more then me and that’s fine. I use them a lot to and I apply them I’m aware of their advantages and flaws. We disagree a lot about their overall value and that’s fine. We’ve both given good reasons as to why. Playing some games and interacting with others we all have different approaches to them.

I just take with a pinch of salt, arguments tried to be proven by stats to be honest, not ring dismisdive or personal saying that.

Do you play anything like FPL or any of the high stat games mate? You’d enjoy them and probably be competitve if stats are your thing.

I've done FPL but I don't really enjoy it as lately you have to pick kopites to win which I'm not a big fan of.

 

[Goat]

If he's an 8 he needs to be good at passing the ball forward. He is not.

Hes pony thats all I know.

 

[catcherintherye]

Forward passing and ball winning. At least in the system we are playing. Now if we're playing 4-3-3 and he's an 8 the ball winning is less important but the forward passing is more so and as he's bad at both it still doesn't thrill me.

Certainly on the stats, there an be no argument re his passing. It's poor (although his key passes per game, at just under 1 are strangely solid, a bit of a stand out).

Re winning the ball back, while I concede he doesn't make that many tackles, he is very good at pressing-forcing opponents back or forcing a mistake. The criticism might be he does this in a somewhat uncordinated way (as it's not massively allied to an astute positioning, more just chasing the ball).

He's an unconventional player though, and if we wanted to have ball pressuring and passing, there areprobably players we could get who could do both aspects. Allan seems like one who could.

I like to see tackles, key pases and passes per game (also with half an eye on completion rate). Anything 2.5ish, 1 and 50+ is very good to me.