2020/21 Alex Iwobi

[kenada_blue]

We tried to sign Maddison but he jibbed us for Leicester.

Then there's that point.

 

[gaino92]

Throw him on the scrap heap or offer him to the Geordies as a part ex for St Maximin

 

[Chimpy Glassman]

This is true.
The majority of our transfer business over the last few years has been abhorrent, even allowing for the fact that some are gambles.

Charlie Adam and Andy Carroll cost 70m too. Think everyone has had blunders.

 

[kenada_blue]

Mate, you're honestly not getting it. I have absolutely not said - anywhere - that everyone knew Maddison was going to be a very good premiership player! What i'm saying is that you're effectively just putting stuff down to luck, and not taking into account the fact that players can be scouted and you can make assessments of how likely they are to do well. I do not believe Iwobi was ever likely to be a sound investment, and he hasn't been. You can of course say 'yeah but in a parallel universe he might have been' but i'm not really sure what that adds to the conversation. Any transaction, whether in football or life, has a risk/reward balance to it. In my opinion the risk/reward balance on Iwobi was heavily skewed towards risk, and it's a risk that hasn't paid off.

It's the same thing. Like you say, risk and reward. The point in comparison to Maddison and Iwobi as transfers is, IMO, more risk towards Maddison than Iwobi (which we disagree on) being as one was a championship player, the other a premiership player. If you're a betting man, you go for the more "elite" target.

And I wasn't putting anything down to luck as I've clearly pointed out the reasons why Iwobi, on paper, reflected a worthy investment. And why £30mill for that criteria (young, premiership and European experience) wasn't a huge gamble.

 

[Lanolin]

It's the same thing. Like you say, risk and reward. The point in comparison to Maddison and Iwobi as transfers is, IMO, more risk towards Maddison than Iwobi (which we disagree on) being as one was a championship player, the other a premiership player. If you're a betting man, you go for the more "elite" target.

And I wasn't putting anything down to luck as I've clearly pointed out the reasons why Iwobi, on paper, reflected a worthy investment. And why £30mill for that criteria (young, premiership and European experience) wasn't a huge gamble.

It's frying my brain that you're just completely ignoring the fact you can actually watch these players before you make your mind up about them and aren't just making a blind decision based on what league they're playing in. For that reason, i'm out.

 

[kenada_blue]

It's frying my brain that you're just completely ignoring the fact you can actually watch these players before you make your mind up about them and aren't just making a blind decision based on what league they're playing in. For that reason, i'm out.

Haha Not one bit. Your agruement is that that anyone with eyes could see that Iwobi wasn't worth the punt when he played for Arsenal. I disagree. Yet, for example, a player like Maddison would've been worth going all in for based on scouting in the championship.

My point is that both were very much a risk, in the similar price bracket, the same age, yet one was playing at a higher level. We were paying for potential that hopefully would pan out. It panned out for Maddison, not for Iwobi (again as an example).

 

[Lanolin]

Haha Not one bit. Your agruement is that that anyone with eyes could see that Iwobi wasn't worth the punt when he played for Arsenal. I disagree. Yet, for example, a player like Maddison would've been worth going all in for based on scouting in the championship.

My point is that both were very much a risk, in the similar price bracket, the same age, yet one was playing at a higher level. We were paying for potential that hopefully would pan out. It panned out for Maddison, not for Iwobi (again as an example).

I'm not sure if you're on the wind up here? THAT IS NOT MY POINT!!! Honestly just read the words instead of deciding what i'm saying in advance and maybe it will make more sense.

 

[kenada_blue]

"I think the whole point is that most people who had watched Iwobi did not believe he was worth £30m because they did not believe he had the potential to make that seem like a reasonable fee."

"What i'm saying is that you're effectively just putting stuff down to luck, and not taking into account the fact that players can be scouted and you can make assessments of how likely they are to do well. I do not believe Iwobi was ever likely to be a sound investment, and he hasn't been."

I'm not sure if you're on the wind up here? THAT IS NOT MY POINT!!! Honestly just read the words instead of deciding what i'm saying in advance and maybe it will make more sense.

What have I missed? I'm disagreeing with you on these points.

The other points is purely down to transfer fees where I believe £30mill for a club like us, going for a player in a similar criteria, is standard business now.

 

[Gilbert..]

Like I said, I'm not defending the player as I'm not a fan. But I see the sense in buying him as, rightly or wrongly, these stats matter when clubs recruit.

IF it panned out, no one would be having this conversation. It's a bad buy but wasn't without merit or potential to warrant the punt based on the price tag and availability. Its the same with Vlasic, Lookman, Kean...all were punts and all didn't pan out for us.

We spent £30mill on Walcott and Tosun which is arguably a worst as they're senior pros that should've worked.

We are not going to agree. He was a fraud at arsenal and he's a fraud here. There WAS no case in buying him.
Depressing player to have wearing your clubs shirt and was always going to be.

 

[gaino92]

"I think the whole point is that most people who had watched Iwobi did not believe he was worth £30m because they did not believe he had the potential to make that seem like a reasonable fee."

"What i'm saying is that you're effectively just putting stuff down to luck, and not taking into account the fact that players can be scouted and you can make assessments of how likely they are to do well. I do not believe Iwobi was ever likely to be a sound investment, and he hasn't been."



What have I missed? I'm disagreeing with you on these points.

The other points is purely down to transfer fees where I believe £30mill for a club like us, going for a player in a similar criteria, is standard business now.

Iwobi had been given ample opportunity in the premier league and done nothing to suggest we should have dropped £30m on him. On the other hand, James Madision was one of the best players in the championship and was putting in fantastic performances, they are chalk and cheese, Iwobi has, as many suspected, flopped. Madison has kicked on in the prem. They aren't in a similar criteria one was showing massive signs of promise one was languishing as a crap player in a decent Arsenal team

 

[kenada_blue]

We are not going to agree. He was a fraud at arsenal and he's a fraud here. There WAS no case in buying him.
Depressing player to have wearing your clubs shirt and was always going to be.

Fair enough. I ain't defending him for us as he's been awful.

 

[Lanolin]

"I think the whole point is that most people who had watched Iwobi did not believe he was worth £30m because they did not believe he had the potential to make that seem like a reasonable fee."

"What i'm saying is that you're effectively just putting stuff down to luck, and not taking into account the fact that players can be scouted and you can make assessments of how likely they are to do well. I do not believe Iwobi was ever likely to be a sound investment, and he hasn't been."



What have I missed? I'm disagreeing with you on these points.

The other points is purely down to transfer fees where I believe £30mill for a club like us, going for a player in a similar criteria, is standard business now.

Well firstly i'm not saying 'anyone with eyes' knew Iwobi was going to be a waste of money. I'm saying the fact he has been a waste of money is not a surprise to many people, there's quite a big difference. Secondly I am not saying that we should have been going all in on James Maddison. What i'm saying is that you're completely ignoring the fact that you can watch players and make an informed decision on what their ceiling is. You said earlier that if you're a betting man you'd bet on the one performing at an 'elite' level rather than the one at a level below, but that's a complete fallacy (assuming you've watched both). In a Grade 1 horse race for example, a good punter would look at a horse that been running in similar Grade 1s and finishing 5th/6th etc and then look at another horse that had been running in Grade 3s but bolting up and decide that there was more chance of the latter being able to step up in class than the former improving sufficiently to become a winner at a level it had previously struggled at.

The conversation started because I commented on you saying 'nobody would be complaining if it had turned out well' because it's such a daft thing to say. I can just imagine my wife's response if I said 'yeah we've lost everything because I spent all our money on lottery tickets, but you wouldn't be moaning if we'd won' You have to weigh up in advance whether the decision you're making has the right balance of risk and reward, and in my opinion you're in a minority in believing that Iwobi was worth signing at the fee we paid.

 

[kenada_blue]

Iwobi had been given ample opportunity in the premier league and done nothing to suggest we should have dropped £30m on him. On the other hand, James Madision was one of the best players in the championship and was putting in fantastic performances, they are chalk and cheese, Iwobi has, as many suspected, flopped. Madison has kicked on in the prem. They aren't in a similar criteria one was showing massive signs of promise one was languishing as a crap player in a decent Arsenal team

Would you have paid what Villa paid for Watkins for example over Moise Kean?

They're all gambles but calculated ones. I say criteria as in age bracket, club level, etc. Maddison was an example to argue the point based on the fees nowadays for that bracket.

 

[kenada_blue]

Well firstly i'm not saying 'anyone with eyes' knew Iwobi was going to be a waste of money. I'm saying the fact he has been a waste of money is not a surprise to many people, there's quite a big difference. Secondly I am not saying that we should have been going all in on James Maddison. What i'm saying is that you're completely ignoring the fact that you can watch players and make an informed decision on what their ceiling is. You said earlier that if you're a betting man you'd bet on the one performing at an 'elite' level rather than the one at a level below, but that's a complete fallacy (assuming you've watched both). In a Grade 1 horse race for example, a good punter would look at a horse that been running in similar Grade 1s and finishing 5th/6th etc and then look at another horse that had been running in Grade 3s but bolting up and decide that there was more chance of the latter being able to step up in class than the former improving sufficiently to become a winner at a level it had previously struggled at.

The conversation started because I commented on you saying 'nobody would be complaining if it had turned out well' because it's such a daft thing to say. I can just imagine my wife's response if I said 'yeah we've lost everything because I spent all our money on lottery tickets, but you wouldn't be moaning if we'd won'/ You have to weigh up in advance whether the decision you're making has the right balance of risk and reward, and in my opinion you're in a minority in believing that Iwobi was worth signing at the fee we paid.

And my argument was putting forward a case to say he was and where we disagree which is opinion on the players calibre.

The other point is the transfer fee itself where I feel that the £20-30mill fee is a price point for any young player at a good level from the premiership now

 

[DaChunk]

Who would even want him? I can't see him playing for any other PL club