2020/21 Ben Godfrey

[mill]

I admit I never look at the games we won and say it balances against the games we lost. My strong belief is we have overperformed against the top 6 and taken points we never expected but that doesn't counter balance against the points we should have won against the bottom 3rd. All that is to me is a missed opportunity. If we end 7th.. but beat the bottom teams and lost to the top no-one would say it was a successful season, but not unexpected. Beating the top but losing to the bottom and ending 7th is disappointing for me.

Do I think we should have beaten them all.. no.. but I do feel we should be 5 points better off.. that was before Fulham. West Ham and Burnley for me we actually should have won both. That's not even counting Newcastle twice and Leeds.

The result of scoring to draw a game in the 93rd minute is the same as conceding a goal to draw in the 93rd minute.. same result but different feelings. This season will feel like a massively missed opportunity if we don't take it home now.

We haven't ended 7th yet, but owing to the points thrown away we will need to have a remarkable run in to the finish line now. I don't want to sound negative as I believe we can.. same reason I believe we should be in 3rd.. this team IS good enough.

Ok let’s look at it this way. At the start of the season how many points would you have expected from these:

spurs away
Liverpool away
Liverpool at home
Leicester away
Chelsea at home
United away
Arsenal at home
Wolves away

Just curious. For reference, I’d have said 9 points out of that lot would be par.

 

[allen]

But this is the point. People will say ‘we ought to have beaten these’ without considering the flip side. We’ve also won when it hasn’t been expected. You can’t have the best of both worlds.

But you can. We’ve done the hard part. Crossing the Ts and dotting the Is by beating the teams we should beat is the easy part.

It’s not fanciful to say we ought to be level on points with United.

 

[BornBlue76]

Ok let’s look at it this way. At the start of the season how many points would you have expected from these:

Just curious.

spurs away - 0
Liverpool away - 0
Liverpool at home - 1
Leicester away - 3 (Expected I don't know but definitely possible)
Chelsea at home - 1
United away- 0
Arsenal at home - 1 (almost said 3 but history)
Wolves away - 3

Let me ask you... at the start of the season how many points do you realistically think we would have got overall. Then add on the points we won against the teams above in those fixtures, which I'm guessing you feel was 0. Where would we end up?

 

[mill]

But you can. We’ve done the hard part. Crossing the Ts and dotting the Is by beating the teams we should beat is the easy part.

It’s not fanciful to say we ought to be level on points with United.

That’s where we disagree. I don’t think we have the squad depth of United. We’ve been played off the park by them a few times this season already ffs

I reckon we’ve got a first team that can go toe to toe. But not a squad.

we can’t expect the team to perform at the same level every week once you factor in injuries, suspensions and the number of games over the Christmas period etc.

The depth just isn’t there.

 

[BornBlue76]

But you can. We’ve done the hard part. Crossing the Ts and dotting the Is by beating the teams we should beat is the easy part.

It’s not fanciful to say we ought to be level on points with United.

Exactly... what I said but far more succinctly!

 

[mill]

spurs away - 0
Liverpool away - 0
Liverpool at home - 1
Leicester away - 3 (Expected I don't know but definitely possible)
Chelsea at home - 1
United away- 0
Arsenal at home - 1 (almost said 3 but history)
Wolves away - 3

Let me ask you... at the start of the season how many points do you realistically think we would have got overall. Then add on the points we won against the teams above in those fixtures, which I'm guessing you feel was 0. Where would we end up?

No I said 9.

we got 20 from 24.

We’ve outperformed in those games by 11 points in my mind.

 

[allen]

That’s where we disagree. I don’t think we have the squad depth of United. We’ve been played off the park by them a few times this season already ffs

I reckon we’ve got a first team that can go toe to toe. But not a squad.

we can’t expect the team to perform at the same level every week once you factor in injuries, suspensions and the number of games over the Christmas period etc.

The depth just isn’t there.

You can reason out quality all you like, and I agree our squad isn’t as good as United’s.

But points are what matter, not quality, and we should have as many as them.

 

[BornBlue76]

We’ve outperformed in those games by 11 points in my mind.

thats close to my number too .. for me that means we end closer to 70 points overall as opposed to 60. But if we end on 60..

 

[mill]

You can reason out quality all you like, and I agree our squad isn’t as good as United’s.

But points are what matter, not quality, and we should have as many as them.

So by your own admission we don’t have a squad to compete with United but at the same time you think we should be?

I think your logic is flawed.

 

[mill]

thats close to my number too .. for me that means we end closer to 70 points overall as opposed to 60. But if we end on 60..

My view is that a europa league challenge was a feasible target in the circumstances. I think we are currently outperforming. I’m not going to look at individual performances as there are too many variables that can impact individual results. Fatigue, injury, form, all of which can be mitigated by depth which we don’t have.

our points per game is excellent under ancelotti and we are improving. And more importantly becoming more resilient. I think to expect more at this point is unrealistic.

 

[allen]

So by your own admission we don’t have a squad to compete with United but at the same time you think we should be?

I think your logic is flawed.

I didn’t say we don’t have the squad to compete with them.

I said their squad is better than ours, but that isn’t the only factor. We have a better manager with superior tactical ability, for one.

 

[BornBlue76]

So by your own admission we don’t have a squad to compete with United but at the same time you think we should be?

I think your logic is flawed.

I'll take this one.. (got a lot of work to do but been wanting to debate this with someone for a long time)..

Easy: no we don't have the squad to compete with Utd.. but we did.. so we bank those points. We DO have the squad to compete with Fulham, WH, Leeds, Newcastle, Saints, Burnley... so we Should! We were steam rolled in more than half those matches.

Is the argument that we put everything into the matches v the top 6 and have nothing left for the bottom half? Otherwise I don't get it.

 

[mill]

I didn’t say we don’t have the squad to compete with them.

I said their squad is better than ours, but that isn’t the only factor. We have a better manager with superior tactical ability, for one.

I find it hard to look at the squad and the manager and the competition and think we are underperforming. Which is effectively what you are saying.

 

[allen]

I find it hard to look at the squad and the manager and the competition and think we are underperforming. Which is effectively what you are saying.

What I’m saying is fairy straightforward. We should have had 7 points from Fulham and Newcastle.

 

[mill]

I'll take this one.. (got a lot of work to do but been wanting to debate this with someone for a long time)..

Easy: no we don't have the squad to compete with Utd.. but we did.. so we bank those points. We DO have the squad to compete with Fulham, WH, Leeds, Newcastle, Saints, Burnley... so we Should! We were steam rolled in more than half those matches.

Is the argument that we put everything into the matches v the top 6 and have nothing left for the bottom half? Otherwise I don't get it.

No the logic is you can’t look at individual results but rather a longer term trend of points per game and position. Compare that to what we expected at the beginning of the season given the squad and appraise based on that.
For me, we are outperforming by challenging for CL spots.
you are saying we are underperforming as we should be 2nd with United.