Oddball
Player Valuation: £20m
if modern life is mad, why follow the accepted narrative? wouldn`t that be...............insane?
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Conspiracy theories
- Thread starter gorgeousgeorgeEFC
- Start date
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davids
Player Valuation: £70m
It's an interesting conversation,a lot of the internet comments are anecdotal. From my part my daughter in law is a teacher and my son a fitness nut. They've both been jabbed up to the eyeballs yet have had it twice each with some pretty nasty symptoms. My grandson got it too and was very ill when allegedly children usually only get a mild dose. Meanwhile my rabid anti-vaxxer best mate who has sleep apnea,takes daily thyroxin and could keel over if he ran for a bus had it a couple of weeks ago and other than a rough voice and some joint pain easily treated with paracetamol was fine. Who knew.
Alan Whittle
Player Valuation: £60m
Vaccine insights from English population-wide COVID/non-COVID deaths split by vaccination status/age
Summary of Key points: The UK ONS posted data on all COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 deaths in England from Jan1 through Oct31, 2021, split out by vaccination status and age group. The vaccination status were unvaccinated, <21 days after 1st dose, >21 days after 1st dose, <21 days after 2nd dose, >21...
www.covid-datascience.com
Summary of Key points:
- The UK ONS posted data on all COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 deaths in England from Jan1 through Oct31, 2021, split out by vaccination status and age group.
- The vaccination status were unvaccinated, <21 days after 1st dose, >21 days after 1st dose, <21 days after 2nd dose, >21 days after 2nd dose. Note that it is explicit that unvaccinated ONLY includes those not yet given any shot, not 1-2 weeks after the shots.
- The age groups were 90+, 80-89, 70-79, 60-69, 50-59, 40-49, and 18-39. This is an improvement from previous data that lumped all 10-59yr together in one group, leading to distortions from Simpson's paradox
- The data were summarized monthly, and the posted numbers deaths per 100k, age-adjusted to the standard European population to further adjust for age-related bias.
- I also added in plots showing the size of each vaccination group over time, to demonstrate the dynamics of the vaccine rollout that drive the makeup of the various vaccination groups and inform selection bias that explains unusual features in the data.
- Strong vaccine effectiveness vs. COVID-19 death: The COVID-19 death data show major reductions of death rate in vaccinated than unvaccinated groups for all age groups, validating other results showing high vaccine effectiveness (VE) vs. COVID-19 deaths, corresponding to overall VE ~80-95% in the various age groups.
- No broad increase in non-COVID-19 deaths after vaccination: There is no evidence of a general increase in non-COVID-19 deaths in vaccinated relative to unvaccinated. If the vaccines were inherently dangerous and causing high numbers of deaths (as some claim), we would see broad increases in non-COVID-19 deaths after vaccination, but we don't. In most scenarios, the age-adjusted non-COVID-19 death rates were equivalent or lower in vaccinated groups than unvaccinated groups, with two exceptions in specific circumstances, both involving small subsets of individuals with clear selection bias.
- Higher death rates in young people receiving early vaccination: A specific high risk subset of the younger cohorts (18-39yr, 40-49yr) were selected out for early vaccination in mid-February, with the rest of their age cohort not eligible for vaccination until April, May or June. These included those with serious health conditions putting them at higher risk of death as well as health care and social workers, that for the 18-39yr old cohort would tend to be at the older end of the cohort and thus also having higher mortality risk. These high risk subsets were responsible for the higher mortality rates in February-March for <21 days after 1st dose, March-April for >21 days after 1st dose, for April-May for <21 days after 2nd dose, and for May-July for >21 days after 2nd dose. Because the general age cohorts did not receive vaccination until later, we can be confident these effects are in the selected high risk subset offered early vaccination, which for the 18-39yr group appears to have 2-3x the risk of the rest of the 18-39yr cohort but 4-5x lower risk than the next oldest 40-49yr cohort.
- Higher death rates in "stragglers", the small proportion receiving first dose who delay or skip their second doses: In all age groups, we saw a spike of age-based non-COVID-19 mortality rates for the vaccination group >21 days after 1st dose precisely at the time point at which that age group first reached near-full 2nd dose vaccination. This tends to be a very small subset, ~1-5% of the cohort. This spike was of large magnitude, and tended to come down over time, but not completely to the unvaccinated level. Additionally, we saw similar spikes in the unvaccinated at the time when that age group reached near-full 1st dose vaccination. In spite of Neil et al. (2021)'s assertion these effects can only be explained by miscategorization of vaccine deaths as unvaccinated, it can also be explained by a potential death reporting lag artifact and/or inherent "straggler" selection bias based on the notion that those given 1st or 2nd dose long after the others in their age cohort may be dominated by those with medical complications that were either pre-existing or arose after 1st vaccine dose, and/or had recent SARS-CoV-2 infections. These will include any whose medical complications may have been vaccine-related, so is an important select subset to investigate further for potential vaccine-based minority harm.
- Refutes claims of high numbers of vaccine-caused deaths: All together, these data show that it is not possible that vaccines are causing large numbers of deaths, and any vaccine-related deaths must be very rare cases of minority harm. Further, there is no evidence of excess deaths <21 days after 1st or 2nd dose, the time points containing nearly all VAERs death reports that drive the claims by Kirsch and others that there must be high number of vaccine deaths (1/500 vaccinated killed by vaccines). These data demonstrate these extreme claims are clearly implausible.
- Vaccine rollout dynamics produce clear selection bias: Also, the vaccination rollout dynamics caused selection bias in certain vaccinated groups at certain time points, and these are the time points at which we sometimes see higher non-COVID death rates in some of the vaccinated groups than the unvaccinated groups.
- Neil et al. (2021)' "adjusted" analysis reassigning unvaccinated deaths to vaccinated groups is unsubstantiated and inappropriate: These data fly in the face of Neil et al. (2021)'s claim that there is not substantial selection bias that can explain the irregularities in this data, and thus there must be widespread misclassification assigning vaccinated deaths to the unvaccinated groups. Given the ONS was very explicit that the unvaccinated group only included those receiving no dose, and included groups <21 days since 1st/2nd dose, there is no valid rationale for the "adjusted" analysis in Neil et al. (2021) in which they arbitrarily reassign unvaccinated deaths to vaccinated groups and draw conclusions based on this analysis. We show here that the vaccine rollout-induced selection bias can explain the irregularities in the data, and there is no reason to propose widespread misclassification that amounts to accusing the UK ONS of malfeasance or incompetence.
JimmyJeffers
Player Valuation: £70m
witchdoc187
Player Valuation: £60m
Decent left back but glad we've brought in cover
[both posts are by Jeffrey Morris, Professor of Biostatistics, University of Pennsylvania]
www.covid-datascience.com
"In this blog post, I will evaluate the current evidence for durability of protection vs. severe disease after 3rd dose boosters using mRNA vaccines, considering 5 published studies during the Omicron era. As I will show, the available studies suggest that after 3rd dose, immune protection vs. severe disease remains relatively durable with little drop off of VE [vaccine effectiveness] over time, and with drop offs only evident at the longest time points after vaccination, a time period subject to confounding by indication given that these are comprised of individuals in high risk groups prioritized for early boosting."
How durable is immune protection vs. severe Omicron-based infections after 3rd shot mRNA boosters?
IntroductionIn winter and spring 2021, hope was high that mRNA vaccines were going to be able to bring herd immunity and end the pandemic if enough were vaccinated. After phase 3 studies of mRNA vaccines showed 95% efficacy in preventing symptomatic COVID-19, the rapid vaccine rollouts raised...
www.covid-datascience.com
"In this blog post, I will evaluate the current evidence for durability of protection vs. severe disease after 3rd dose boosters using mRNA vaccines, considering 5 published studies during the Omicron era. As I will show, the available studies suggest that after 3rd dose, immune protection vs. severe disease remains relatively durable with little drop off of VE [vaccine effectiveness] over time, and with drop offs only evident at the longest time points after vaccination, a time period subject to confounding by indication given that these are comprised of individuals in high risk groups prioritized for early boosting."
JimmyJeffers
Player Valuation: £70m
JimmyJeffers
Player Valuation: £70m
Holliday is going to ignore most of this, choose some ‘choice quotes’ that he reckons back what he has already said, even though they don’t, then do his ‘sound man mate good response’ routine, whilst at the same time, further pedalling his dangerous lies.Vaccine insights from English population-wide COVID/non-COVID deaths split by vaccination status/age
Summary of Key points: The UK ONS posted data on all COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 deaths in England from Jan1 through Oct31, 2021, split out by vaccination status and age group. The vaccination status were unvaccinated, <21 days after 1st dose, >21 days after 1st dose, <21 days after 2nd dose, >21...
Summary of Key points:
- The UK ONS posted data on all COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 deaths in England from Jan1 through Oct31, 2021, split out by vaccination status and age group.
- The vaccination status were unvaccinated, <21 days after 1st dose, >21 days after 1st dose, <21 days after 2nd dose, >21 days after 2nd dose. Note that it is explicit that unvaccinated ONLY includes those not yet given any shot, not 1-2 weeks after the shots.
- The age groups were 90+, 80-89, 70-79, 60-69, 50-59, 40-49, and 18-39. This is an improvement from previous data that lumped all 10-59yr together in one group, leading to distortions from Simpson's paradox
- The data were summarized monthly, and the posted numbers deaths per 100k, age-adjusted to the standard European population to further adjust for age-related bias.
- I also added in plots showing the size of each vaccination group over time, to demonstrate the dynamics of the vaccine rollout that drive the makeup of the various vaccination groups and inform selection bias that explains unusual features in the data.
- Strong vaccine effectiveness vs. COVID-19 death: The COVID-19 death data show major reductions of death rate in vaccinated than unvaccinated groups for all age groups, validating other results showing high vaccine effectiveness (VE) vs. COVID-19 deaths, corresponding to overall VE ~80-95% in the various age groups.
- No broad increase in non-COVID-19 deaths after vaccination: There is no evidence of a general increase in non-COVID-19 deaths in vaccinated relative to unvaccinated. If the vaccines were inherently dangerous and causing high numbers of deaths (as some claim), we would see broad increases in non-COVID-19 deaths after vaccination, but we don't. In most scenarios, the age-adjusted non-COVID-19 death rates were equivalent or lower in vaccinated groups than unvaccinated groups, with two exceptions in specific circumstances, both involving small subsets of individuals with clear selection bias.
- Higher death rates in young people receiving early vaccination: A specific high risk subset of the younger cohorts (18-39yr, 40-49yr) were selected out for early vaccination in mid-February, with the rest of their age cohort not eligible for vaccination until April, May or June. These included those with serious health conditions putting them at higher risk of death as well as health care and social workers, that for the 18-39yr old cohort would tend to be at the older end of the cohort and thus also having higher mortality risk. These high risk subsets were responsible for the higher mortality rates in February-March for <21 days after 1st dose, March-April for >21 days after 1st dose, for April-May for <21 days after 2nd dose, and for May-July for >21 days after 2nd dose. Because the general age cohorts did not receive vaccination until later, we can be confident these effects are in the selected high risk subset offered early vaccination, which for the 18-39yr group appears to have 2-3x the risk of the rest of the 18-39yr cohort but 4-5x lower risk than the next oldest 40-49yr cohort.
- Higher death rates in "stragglers", the small proportion receiving first dose who delay or skip their second doses: In all age groups, we saw a spike of age-based non-COVID-19 mortality rates for the vaccination group >21 days after 1st dose precisely at the time point at which that age group first reached near-full 2nd dose vaccination. This tends to be a very small subset, ~1-5% of the cohort. This spike was of large magnitude, and tended to come down over time, but not completely to the unvaccinated level. Additionally, we saw similar spikes in the unvaccinated at the time when that age group reached near-full 1st dose vaccination. In spite of Neil et al. (2021)'s assertion these effects can only be explained by miscategorization of vaccine deaths as unvaccinated, it can also be explained by a potential death reporting lag artifact and/or inherent "straggler" selection bias based on the notion that those given 1st or 2nd dose long after the others in their age cohort may be dominated by those with medical complications that were either pre-existing or arose after 1st vaccine dose, and/or had recent SARS-CoV-2 infections. These will include any whose medical complications may have been vaccine-related, so is an important select subset to investigate further for potential vaccine-based minority harm.
- Refutes claims of high numbers of vaccine-caused deaths: All together, these data show that it is not possible that vaccines are causing large numbers of deaths, and any vaccine-related deaths must be very rare cases of minority harm. Further, there is no evidence of excess deaths <21 days after 1st or 2nd dose, the time points containing nearly all VAERs death reports that drive the claims by Kirsch and others that there must be high number of vaccine deaths (1/500 vaccinated killed by vaccines). These data demonstrate these extreme claims are clearly implausible.
- Vaccine rollout dynamics produce clear selection bias: Also, the vaccination rollout dynamics caused selection bias in certain vaccinated groups at certain time points, and these are the time points at which we sometimes see higher non-COVID death rates in some of the vaccinated groups than the unvaccinated groups.
- Neil et al. (2021)' "adjusted" analysis reassigning unvaccinated deaths to vaccinated groups is unsubstantiated and inappropriate: These data fly in the face of Neil et al. (2021)'s claim that there is not substantial selection bias that can explain the irregularities in this data, and thus there must be widespread misclassification assigning vaccinated deaths to the unvaccinated groups. Given the ONS was very explicit that the unvaccinated group only included those receiving no dose, and included groups <21 days since 1st/2nd dose, there is no valid rationale for the "adjusted" analysis in Neil et al. (2021) in which they arbitrarily reassign unvaccinated deaths to vaccinated groups and draw conclusions based on this analysis. We show here that the vaccine rollout-induced selection bias can explain the irregularities in the data, and there is no reason to propose widespread misclassification that amounts to accusing the UK ONS of malfeasance or incompetence.
The bloatest of all the bloaters
The last author on this paper, Kate, was in grad school with me. She is a professor at U. of Illinois now. Her team reports on changes on menstruation after covid vaccine. As they state, and some people here fail to understand, a vaccine will cause an immune response. This is typical (and how vaccines work) and they note,
"There are in fact multiple plausible biological mechanisms to explain a relationship between an acute immune challenge like a vaccine (12), its corresponding and well-known systemic effects on hemostasis and inflammation (13), and menstrual repair mechanisms of the uterus (14–17). The uterine reproductive system is flexible and adaptable in the face of stressors, in order to weather short-term challenges in a way that leaves long-term fertility intact (18, 19)."
www.medrxiv.org
"There are in fact multiple plausible biological mechanisms to explain a relationship between an acute immune challenge like a vaccine (12), its corresponding and well-known systemic effects on hemostasis and inflammation (13), and menstrual repair mechanisms of the uterus (14–17). The uterine reproductive system is flexible and adaptable in the face of stressors, in order to weather short-term challenges in a way that leaves long-term fertility intact (18, 19)."
Investigating trends in those who experience menstrual bleeding changes after SARS-CoV-2 vaccination
Early in 2021, many people began sharing that they experienced unexpected menstrual bleeding after SARS-CoV-2 inoculation. We investigated this emerging phenomenon of changed menstrual bleeding patterns among a convenience sample of currently and formerly menstruating people using a web-based...
I'm really scratching my chin on this one. On the one hand, we have stand-up comedian/TV personality Jon Stewart suggesting a lab-leak, on the other hand we have two more (of many) studies that suggest a zoonotic origin. I can't wait for the idiots such as Bret Weinstein to hem-haw their way out of this one (they will grift their way out, as usual, duping the usual clods who are impressed by large words strung together in nonsensical clauses).
Last edited:
JimmyJeffers
Player Valuation: £70m
A typical case of quasi-semiotic-groupthink
woodsyni
Player Valuation: £20m
That makes me think and coincidentally satisfies my curiosity ?Vaccine insights from English population-wide COVID/non-COVID deaths split by vaccination status/age
Summary of Key points: The UK ONS posted data on all COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 deaths in England from Jan1 through Oct31, 2021, split out by vaccination status and age group. The vaccination status were unvaccinated, <21 days after 1st dose, >21 days after 1st dose, <21 days after 2nd dose, >21...
Summary of Key points:
- The UK ONS posted data on all COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 deaths in England from Jan1 through Oct31, 2021, split out by vaccination status and age group.
- The vaccination status were unvaccinated, <21 days after 1st dose, >21 days after 1st dose, <21 days after 2nd dose, >21 days after 2nd dose. Note that it is explicit that unvaccinated ONLY includes those not yet given any shot, not 1-2 weeks after the shots.
- The age groups were 90+, 80-89, 70-79, 60-69, 50-59, 40-49, and 18-39. This is an improvement from previous data that lumped all 10-59yr together in one group, leading to distortions from Simpson's paradox
- The data were summarized monthly, and the posted numbers deaths per 100k, age-adjusted to the standard European population to further adjust for age-related bias.
- I also added in plots showing the size of each vaccination group over time, to demonstrate the dynamics of the vaccine rollout that drive the makeup of the various vaccination groups and inform selection bias that explains unusual features in the data.
- Strong vaccine effectiveness vs. COVID-19 death: The COVID-19 death data show major reductions of death rate in vaccinated than unvaccinated groups for all age groups, validating other results showing high vaccine effectiveness (VE) vs. COVID-19 deaths, corresponding to overall VE ~80-95% in the various age groups.
- No broad increase in non-COVID-19 deaths after vaccination: There is no evidence of a general increase in non-COVID-19 deaths in vaccinated relative to unvaccinated. If the vaccines were inherently dangerous and causing high numbers of deaths (as some claim), we would see broad increases in non-COVID-19 deaths after vaccination, but we don't. In most scenarios, the age-adjusted non-COVID-19 death rates were equivalent or lower in vaccinated groups than unvaccinated groups, with two exceptions in specific circumstances, both involving small subsets of individuals with clear selection bias.
- Higher death rates in young people receiving early vaccination: A specific high risk subset of the younger cohorts (18-39yr, 40-49yr) were selected out for early vaccination in mid-February, with the rest of their age cohort not eligible for vaccination until April, May or June. These included those with serious health conditions putting them at higher risk of death as well as health care and social workers, that for the 18-39yr old cohort would tend to be at the older end of the cohort and thus also having higher mortality risk. These high risk subsets were responsible for the higher mortality rates in February-March for <21 days after 1st dose, March-April for >21 days after 1st dose, for April-May for <21 days after 2nd dose, and for May-July for >21 days after 2nd dose. Because the general age cohorts did not receive vaccination until later, we can be confident these effects are in the selected high risk subset offered early vaccination, which for the 18-39yr group appears to have 2-3x the risk of the rest of the 18-39yr cohort but 4-5x lower risk than the next oldest 40-49yr cohort.
- Higher death rates in "stragglers", the small proportion receiving first dose who delay or skip their second doses: In all age groups, we saw a spike of age-based non-COVID-19 mortality rates for the vaccination group >21 days after 1st dose precisely at the time point at which that age group first reached near-full 2nd dose vaccination. This tends to be a very small subset, ~1-5% of the cohort. This spike was of large magnitude, and tended to come down over time, but not completely to the unvaccinated level. Additionally, we saw similar spikes in the unvaccinated at the time when that age group reached near-full 1st dose vaccination. In spite of Neil et al. (2021)'s assertion these effects can only be explained by miscategorization of vaccine deaths as unvaccinated, it can also be explained by a potential death reporting lag artifact and/or inherent "straggler" selection bias based on the notion that those given 1st or 2nd dose long after the others in their age cohort may be dominated by those with medical complications that were either pre-existing or arose after 1st vaccine dose, and/or had recent SARS-CoV-2 infections. These will include any whose medical complications may have been vaccine-related, so is an important select subset to investigate further for potential vaccine-based minority harm.
- Refutes claims of high numbers of vaccine-caused deaths: All together, these data show that it is not possible that vaccines are causing large numbers of deaths, and any vaccine-related deaths must be very rare cases of minority harm. Further, there is no evidence of excess deaths <21 days after 1st or 2nd dose, the time points containing nearly all VAERs death reports that drive the claims by Kirsch and others that there must be high number of vaccine deaths (1/500 vaccinated killed by vaccines). These data demonstrate these extreme claims are clearly implausible.
- Vaccine rollout dynamics produce clear selection bias: Also, the vaccination rollout dynamics caused selection bias in certain vaccinated groups at certain time points, and these are the time points at which we sometimes see higher non-COVID death rates in some of the vaccinated groups than the unvaccinated groups.
- Neil et al. (2021)' "adjusted" analysis reassigning unvaccinated deaths to vaccinated groups is unsubstantiated and inappropriate: These data fly in the face of Neil et al. (2021)'s claim that there is not substantial selection bias that can explain the irregularities in this data, and thus there must be widespread misclassification assigning vaccinated deaths to the unvaccinated groups. Given the ONS was very explicit that the unvaccinated group only included those receiving no dose, and included groups <21 days since 1st/2nd dose, there is no valid rationale for the "adjusted" analysis in Neil et al. (2021) in which they arbitrarily reassign unvaccinated deaths to vaccinated groups and draw conclusions based on this analysis. We show here that the vaccine rollout-induced selection bias can explain the irregularities in the data, and there is no reason to propose widespread misclassification that amounts to accusing the UK ONS of malfeasance or incompetence.
woodsyni
Player Valuation: £20m
Some large words there, mate ?
This is the soul crushing bit. The “good post this, thanks for clarifying” thing, then 2 posts later makes the same mistake, repeats the same lie, or just moves straight onto a new one, and you realise you’ve completely wasted your time.
- Status