It was the dive that won the penalty, not the contact. No dive, no whistle, no pen.
The dive makes the ref award the pen, VAR decide "oh there was some contact, must be a pen then", completely ignoring the dive. Incredible.
I don't buy into any big conspiracy theory, but I have zero doubt there are innumerable mini conspiracies at work. "You don't award a last minute penalty against Liverpool at the kop end" didn't a referee say that? What about the army of kopite pundits on tv/the media? The fawning over them, the endless pro-rs clickbait and drum banging and narrative writing all has an impact.
It is basic psychology. Officials and pundits, and let's be clear, VAR judges, are predisposed to see them lot as winners, unbeatable, honourable bastions of the beautiful game. 9/10 times this means they will get the benefit of the doubt, the rub of the green, a dodgy pen here, a let off there. They can't do it without skill of course but that's not in question. City do not have anything like that level of blind, across the board goodwill. Manure used to, perhaps.
If that incident had been at the other end, then no pen, possibly even a yellow for diving. We all know it.