Ihaters
Player Valuation: £35m
RAWK = STATS = MOCKING TIME
This is how they say their keeper was below average last season - Fortunately, there is a handy display of point data to clarify things.
Note: Reply number 666.. I am not sure that number changes tbh
Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #666 on: September 22, 2015, 12:10:53 AM »
Quote from: paddypower on September 21, 2015, 10:25:38 PM
Could it be we don't concede a lot of shots as teams are happy for us to have the ball for large periods, before springing quickly on the counter while we are disorganised? That could account for a smaller shot number, but a higher conversion rate as the shots are quality focused (countering at the right time) rather than quantity focused.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________
We don't really know. We were dead average, 10th in both Shots Conceded / "Big Chances" conceded and Shots on Target Conceded / "Big Chances" conceded. Now who knows what the exact definition Opta uses for a "Big Chance", it's certainly subjective - its correlation with goals conceded last year was 0.68
We were about 3% below average for Save %. The question is was it bad luck or conceding a disproportionate number of good chances or poor goalkeeping. We don't really know with public data. The "Big Chances" correlation isn't strong enough to discount it being due to too many good chances.
If our save % last year was dead average we'd have conceded 6 fewer goals. Not enough to make the difference to top 4 last year so it's not a big talking point imo.
But if we put our faith in one season of xG data (I dunno if that's wise or unwise), then yeah Mignolet was not good enough last year. 48 actual goals allowed, xGa was 41. The differential of 7 lines up well with what I wrote about on Save % being 3% away from the average costing us 6 goals.
When you add in the fact that he doesn't have other contributing factors - like he's not a good distributor, he's not a well known organizer, he's not a "leader" like say a Buffon type .... then what are we left with? A guy who is a shotstopper and nothing else but he's either been unlucky or below average at shotstoping!
This is how they say their keeper was below average last season - Fortunately, there is a handy display of point data to clarify things.
Note: Reply number 666.. I am not sure that number changes tbh
Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #666 on: September 22, 2015, 12:10:53 AM »
Quote from: paddypower on September 21, 2015, 10:25:38 PM
Could it be we don't concede a lot of shots as teams are happy for us to have the ball for large periods, before springing quickly on the counter while we are disorganised? That could account for a smaller shot number, but a higher conversion rate as the shots are quality focused (countering at the right time) rather than quantity focused.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________
We don't really know. We were dead average, 10th in both Shots Conceded / "Big Chances" conceded and Shots on Target Conceded / "Big Chances" conceded. Now who knows what the exact definition Opta uses for a "Big Chance", it's certainly subjective - its correlation with goals conceded last year was 0.68
We were about 3% below average for Save %. The question is was it bad luck or conceding a disproportionate number of good chances or poor goalkeeping. We don't really know with public data. The "Big Chances" correlation isn't strong enough to discount it being due to too many good chances.
If our save % last year was dead average we'd have conceded 6 fewer goals. Not enough to make the difference to top 4 last year so it's not a big talking point imo.
But if we put our faith in one season of xG data (I dunno if that's wise or unwise), then yeah Mignolet was not good enough last year. 48 actual goals allowed, xGa was 41. The differential of 7 lines up well with what I wrote about on Save % being 3% away from the average costing us 6 goals.
When you add in the fact that he doesn't have other contributing factors - like he's not a good distributor, he's not a well known organizer, he's not a "leader" like say a Buffon type .... then what are we left with? A guy who is a shotstopper and nothing else but he's either been unlucky or below average at shotstoping!
lol