I feel it depends how Southgate approaches it tonight. The advantage England have over Italy is pace/legs - they can't really outplay them like Spain did with the ball.
If it were me, I'd go for the early goal and force Italy into a higher pace. Otherwise I think Italy nick it late on.
But I think Southgate will go patient, try to control possession and tire Italy out. And I don't think it'll work as I can see Italy nicking one and giving England a mountain to climb.
Tough one. On balance, 1-0 Italy I'm going for, hope I'm wrong.