Everton January 2025 Transfer Thread

[Pabbers]

People now talking about resting the very average Beto on Saturday cos we have no other striker for the derby

Madness really

He and we need momentum, cnat ever be scared of injuries.

 

[Tony’s Carp]

All this talk of transformational spending and arbitrary net spend figures in the summer.

Can we even spend that given the existing PSR constraints?

Seemingly, every decision to 'do a Chelsea' or a Notts Forest comes with a huge risk in the way the PL will approach it (it's a complete lottery).

I'd like to see us implementing a strategy of buying younger, pacier players from Championship and supplementing that with proven PL ready players or those that have impressed in relegated sides.

No knee jerk transfer decisions in January, not sacking managers in the middle of transfer windows, not running around for options at the end of a window and paying over inflated prices.

The marker for what good looks like for TFG should be sensible and competent decision behind the scenes and raising the profile of the club on and off the pitch. I want us to stop being the 'basket case club circling the drain' the media (and former manager) suggested we are.

We will likely need 8-9 players in the summer (I think we'll retain a few), we need to have them identified, line up their agents, have bids ready to go and hit the ground running.

I think the talk about summer spending is justified and is based on PSR factors. For once there’s a perfect storm likely coming that works in our favour.

They are likely to change the rules to a squad cost (wages plus amortisation) to revenue ratio, at a point where our revenue gets an enormous boost from the stadium and stadium related deals, and also at a point where expiring contracts will shrink the falling wage bill still further, and with us not having spent much for years our amortisation will be super low too.

So while we have little to no wiggle room under current PSR our wiggle room will be massive next year if the rule change goes ahead (it will even be decent if it doesn’t as a bad year will fall off our calculation).

What TFG are willing to spend is another question but in terms of PSR we will be able to do a LOT if they have the appetite.

 

[bluestevon]

I think the talk about summer spending is justified and is based on PSR factors. For once there’s a perfect storm likely coming that works in our favour.

They are likely to change the rules to a squad cost (wages plus amortisation) to revenue ratio, at a point where our revenue gets an enormous boost from the stadium and stadium related deals, and also at a point where expiring contracts will shrink the falling wage bill still further, and with us not having spent much for years our amortisation will be super low too.

So while we have little to no wiggle room under current PSR our wiggle room will be massive next year if the rule change goes ahead (it will even be decent if it doesn’t as a bad year will fall off our calculation).

What TFG are willing to spend is another question but in terms of PSR we will be able to do a LOT if they have the appetite.

Can only judge them from what they did at Roma first season, a club that pre takeover had a ire tax annual loss which was double ours.

Put over 100m in capital and a corresponding amount in a loan into the club, along with other financial investment.

Bankrolled over 135m worth of purchases, not including the 10m loan fee for Lukaku and paying his full wages (let's call that overall a 20m rough figure)

So they spent approx 155m on the squad plus wages, sales around about 30-35m, so a net figure around about 120m - remember now Romas losses the tear before were 180m - they actually increased first season under TFG btw - largely down to the spend - they subsequently invested a lot more post that first season and the clubs annual loss now sits at vastly reduced number.

As of last year btw they have invested close to 1bn euro now in Roma. Whilst not loading the club with extra debt but instead having reduced it a lot.

TFG will invest a lot this summer, I've gone on about maybe around 150m, it wouldn't completely shock me if I'm 100m out on the low side though.

They'll have a very specific target for next season and I'm a hundred percent sure it's not gonna be to finish 14-17th. They'll want Europe and they'll want a trophy soon.

If we get the correct CEO with the level of financial backing they will give, then it's an achievable if ambitious aim.

 

[Tony’s Carp]

Can only judge them from what they did at Roma first season, a club that pre takeover had a ire tax annual loss which was double ours.

Put over 100m in capital and a corresponding amount in a loan into the club, along with other financial investment.

Bankrolled over 135m worth of purchases, not including the 10m loan fee for Lukaku and paying his full wages (let's call that overall a 20m rough figure)

So they spent approx 155m on the squad plus wages, sales around about 30-35m, so a net figure around about 120m - remember now Romas losses the tear before were 180m - they actually increased first season under TFG btw - largely down to the spend - they subsequently invested a lot more post that first season and the clubs annual loss now sits at vastly reduced number.

As of last year btw they have invested close to 1bn euro now in Roma. Whilst not loading the club with extra debt but instead having reduced it a lot.

TFG will invest a lot this summer, I've gone on about maybe around 150m, it wouldn't completely shock me if I'm 100m out on the low side though.

They'll have a very specific target for next season and I'm a hundred percent sure it's not gonna be to finish 14-17th. They'll want Europe and they'll want a trophy soon.

If we get the correct CEO with the level of financial backing they will give, then it's an achievable if ambitious aim.

Yeah, based on the relevant numbers if the PSR changes go through 150m would be a minimum but like you I think 200-250 is possible, and obviously there may be sales to factor in too.

It sounds enormous compared to what we’ve been doing but even at the top end it’s not too dissimilar to recent spending by the likes of Forest and Brighton, it’s really just catching up.

Another thought around PSR: the talk was we had some headroom to spend this January so doing nothing but a loan that headroom should still be there. If so we’re in good position to aim for a good deal or two in June when other clubs with PSR issues need to sell. Probably get twice the bang for buck we’d have got last month, so maybe a factor in keeping our powder dry.

 

[Neiler]

Yeah, based on the relevant numbers if the PSR changes go through 150m would be a minimum but like you I think 200-250 is possible, and obviously there may be sales to factor in too.

It sounds enormous compared to what we’ve been doing but even at the top end it’s not too dissimilar to recent spending by the likes of Forest and Brighton, it’s really just catching up.

Another thought around PSR: the talk was we had some headroom to spend this January so doing nothing but a loan that headroom should still be there. If so we’re in good position to aim for a good deal or two in June when other clubs with PSR issues need to sell. Probably get twice the bang for buck we’d have got last month, so maybe a factor in keeping our powder dry.

With that scope of spending with changes in PSR rules across multiple clubs, players prices and subsequently wages will inflate.

We need to be savvy.

 

[bluestevon]

I think the talk about summer spending is justified and is based on PSR factors. For once there’s a perfect storm likely coming that works in our favour.

They are likely to change the rules to a squad cost (wages plus amortisation) to revenue ratio, at a point where our revenue gets an enormous boost from the stadium and stadium related deals, and also at a point where expiring contracts will shrink the falling wage bill still further, and with us not having spent much for years our amortisation will be super low too.

So while we have little to no wiggle room under current PSR our wiggle room will be massive next year if the rule change goes ahead (it will even be decent if it doesn’t as a bad year will fall off our calculation).

What TFG are willing to spend is another question but in terms of PSR we will be able to do a LOT if they have the appetite.

Just to add about room to spend, with whichever regs it'll be huge, amortisation is at a very low figure, the loan payment bleeds have been pretty much stopped or greatly reduced to manageable levels, commercial deals will be on a level we haven't ever had here before - including a massive stadium naming rights one, but a lot if other ones also. On terms of wages to income, we will be almost at the level of 60k being the top current contract outside of maybe three outliers (JP, Gueye - if extended without a big reduction, and Tarks - wouldn't shock me to see a longer contract on reduced wages offered there too or even a same btw). We will also have close to zero dead weight remaining in the wage bill which is the single most efficient start point imaginable if the wage/revenue is brought in.

We've been up around 90-92% up until 2023 in this, which shows you how badly we were ran, now we should see an almost complete reset on player wages combined with a sharp spike in revenue.

It's as you described almost the perfect storm in terms of allowing us to spend.

 

[Noisy noise annoys]

He and we need momentum, cnat ever be scared of injuries.

You can if youve got no other fit strikers!!

Be arsed going in to the last derby at Goodison with date alone upfront against vvd and co

 

[bluestevon]

Yeah, based on the relevant numbers if the PSR changes go through 150m would be a minimum but like you I think 200-250 is possible, and obviously there may be sales to factor in too.

It sounds enormous compared to what we’ve been doing but even at the top end it’s not too dissimilar to recent spending by the likes of Forest and Brighton, it’s really just catching up.

Another thought around PSR: the talk was we had some headroom to spend this January so doing nothing but a loan that headroom should still be there. If so we’re in good position to aim for a good deal or two in June when other clubs with PSR issues need to sell. Probably get twice the bang for buck we’d have got last month, so maybe a factor in keeping our powder dry.

It actually wouldn't shock me if that's the case, you already saw Newcastle panicking a lot this January to try to avoid the same situation as last summer when they saw several players having to be sold they wanted to keep, a few other clubs similarly, I'm guessing we will see a repeat this June as clubs will be so close to the wire.

 

[Jebus_lives]

I think the talk about summer spending is justified and is based on PSR factors. For once there’s a perfect storm likely coming that works in our favour.

They are likely to change the rules to a squad cost (wages plus amortisation) to revenue ratio, at a point where our revenue gets an enormous boost from the stadium and stadium related deals, and also at a point where expiring contracts will shrink the falling wage bill still further, and with us not having spent much for years our amortisation will be super low too.

So while we have little to no wiggle room under current PSR our wiggle room will be massive next year if the rule change goes ahead (it will even be decent if it doesn’t as a bad year will fall off our calculation).

What TFG are willing to spend is another question but in terms of PSR we will be able to do a LOT if they have the appetite.

I hope so. Equally though, we seemed to get giddy last time we were able to spend big and it's hurt us for years.

The approach to our spending is the important thing for me.

Identify the targets, work on them now and get a few of them in early in Summer. Then we can work through options as the window progresses.

Work out who we don't want from the expiring contracts, work out what the ones we do want are expecting and have a clear idea in mind what we value them at. If there isn't movement on their position, move on.

 

[bluestevon]

I hope so. Equally though, we seemed to get giddy last time we were able to spend big and it's hurt us for years.

The approach to our spending is the important thing for me.

Identify the targets, work on them now and get a few of them in early in Summer. Then we can work through options as the window progresses.

Work out who we don't want from the expiring contracts, work out what the ones we do want are expecting and have a clear idea in mind what we value them at. If there isn't movement on their position, move on.

Having Moyes in charge dies give me that security blanket feeling of not messing it all up by bringing in crud.

One worry though is he can be overly cautious to the extent it hampers deals. But he won't be throwing it around like confetti.

 

[Tony’s Carp]

With that scope of spending with changes in PSR rules across multiple clubs, players prices and subsequently wages will inflate.

We need to be savvy.

The SCR change won’t be as advantageous to everyone as it will to us but yes you make a good point, it should see some of the brakes come off across the board and push up prices. All the more reason to be starting now to get deals lined up.

The need to be savvy will absolutely remain regardless of the budget. We’ve been through an awful period due to bad spending of decent budgets. It’s why I would argue for Thelwell to continue. He’s mopped up the consequences of wild spending and so won’t then go and embark on it himself. He’s had to squeeze as much as possible out of every penny (even if this hasn’t always made him popular) and I’d want that to continue regardless of how many pennies are available.

 

[bluestevon]

The SCR change won’t be as advantageous to everyone as it will to us but yes you make a good point, it should see some of the brakes come off across the board and push up prices. All the more reason to be starting now to get deals lined up.

The need to be savvy will absolutely remain regardless of the budget. We’ve been through an awful period due to bad spending of decent budgets. It’s why I would argue for Thelwell to continue. He’s mopped up the consequences of wild spending and so won’t then go and embark on it himself. He’s had to squeeze as much as possible out of every penny (even if this hasn’t always made him popular) and I’d want that to continue regardless of how many pennies are available.

Yeah Thelwells a tough one, is he capable of doing deals faster and beating out competition for players IF he has more room to maneuver. Hard thing to decide until we see it really.

 

[Tony’s Carp]

I hope so. Equally though, we seemed to get giddy last time we were able to spend big and it's hurt us for years.

The approach to our spending is the important thing for me.

Identify the targets, work on them now and get a few of them in early in Summer. Then we can work through options as the window progresses.

Work out who we don't want from the expiring contracts, work out what the ones we do want are expecting and have a clear idea in mind what we value them at. If there isn't movement on their position, move on.

Absolutely, as I just replied to Neiler the need to extract value is imperative regardless of budget. It’s an absolutely critical summer- invest in a good number of growth prospects with future resale potential and one good summer of spending can help fuel the summers to come.

I know we don’t always want to think of ourselves as a selling club and in terms of how much profit we can make from signings, but if we are ever going to grow out of being a selling club it’s the way we need to think about things right now.

 

[Pabbers]

You can if youve got no other fit strikers!!

Be arsed going in to the last derby at Goodison with date alone upfront against vvd and co

We did it many times under Moyes on the past, infact some of his biggest success stories was converting midfielders to strikers.

 

[bluestevon]

Absolutely, as I just replied to Neiler the need to extract value is imperative regardless of budget. It’s an absolutely critical summer- invest in a good number of growth prospects with future resale potential and one good summer of spending can help fuel the summers to come.

I know we don’t always want to think of ourselves as a selling club and in terms of how much profit we can make from signings, but if we are ever going to grow out of being a selling club it’s the way we need to think about things right now.

Step 1. Raid the City academy.
Step 2. Raid the top young players in the Championship.
Step 3. Buy as many young Senegalese midfielders as we can afford.
Step 4. Be smart on adding free agents.
Step 5. With all of the above steps, look at prioritising players entering the last 12 months of their contracts.
Step 6. Look at younger players highly touted who've just had a bad season after a transfer (Ndiaye, Lindstrom types)