Everton, our summer transfers and short term cost control regulations

[bluestevon]

We need to make some significant player trading profits in order to increase wages substantially as we intend to do. I think there are other players we could try and sell instead to make it work but as @The Esk says it does appear Stones wants to leave which does makes the situation a lot easier to sort.

I'm very wary of selling as he is definitely destined for big things and I don't think it will be easy at all replace the player he potentially becomes. Admittedly, we could get someone decent in now who is at a similar level and not change much in the upcoming season. What I worry about is three years down the track when we could potentially be looking for a great defender to really make us a top side in Europe and we are sitting there going imagine if we still had John Stones.

Players move clubs and clubs bring in new good players all the time but I really think doing everything you can to hang on to the truly gifted players is a must.

Thought we'd lose him last season myself mate, so since then although he stayed, never felt like he would be here the way i originally thought 3 years ago he would be.

Yeah he may well go on to becoem a truly world class player, and my gut instinct says he will do so, but if it allows the club to jump up another level and make us truly competitive at the top of the table (no guarantees obviously) then maybe it's one of those bitter pills we have to swallow

we keep him then 3 years down the track we may have done nowt special either as esk explained very well, we dont have a big sale then really we are unable to invest in anything like the way we will be able to with a sale (basically a sale fast tracks the entire thing 2 -3 years)

 

[bluestevon]

Perhaps he meant he wanted to go into the City... to buy some stuff?

Whatever his desires are he would be a complete idiot to leave Everton at the moment. Koeman will make him the best defender in the league, Guadiola and Citeh would ruin him.

Why will Guardiola ruin him mate?
As a player one of the best dm's theirs been, as a manager turned Mascherano into a quality cb... and the best manager in the game currently

 

[Darth Toffeeman]

Why will Guardiola ruin him mate?
As a player one of the best dm's theirs been, as a manager turned Mascherano into a quality cb... and the best manager in the game currently

Anyone who leaves Everton thinking they are going onto 'better', deserve to fail.

Tbh Stones has been very shakey and is being kept out of England by the likes of Smalling and Cahill. He could be brilliant but if he chooses to show no loyalty and thinks he has made it, he will become the next Jeffers if he is not careful.

 

[bluestevon]

Anyone who leaves Everton thinking they are going onto 'better', deserve to fail.

Tbh Stones has been very shakey and is being kept out of England by the likes of Smalling and Cahill. He could be brilliant but if he chooses to show no loyalty and thinks he has made it, he will become the next Jeffers if he is not careful.

Nah mate, the lad will end at the very top of the game, and much as it pains to say, Guardiola is the absolutely perfect manager right now for him to get to that level, the decisions of Hodgson to play those two donleys ahead of him just highlights how bad the national team set up is though really.

end of the day though, do we really expect him to show Loyalty to us mate, we seem to be forgetting we bought him from his boyhood club after he'd only played 20 odd games for them, he's not an Evertonian, wasn't developed through by the club, and can argue the past three seasons he has had an incompetant manager who has tought him absolutely nothing about defending

 

[bobbydigital]

Thought we'd lose him last season myself mate, so since then although he stayed, never felt like he would be here the way i originally thought 3 years ago he would be.

Yeah he may well go on to becoem a truly world class player, and my gut instinct says he will do so, but if it allows the club to jump up another level and make us truly competitive at the top of the table (no guarantees obviously) then maybe it's one of those bitter pills we have to swallow

we keep him then 3 years down the track we may have done nowt special either as esk explained very well, we dont have a big sale then really we are unable to invest in anything like the way we will be able to with a sale (basically a sale fast tracks the entire thing 2 -3 years)

Definitely agree that we need to make certain sales to create the player trading profits needed to fast track our jump to another level in this window.

I just think there are other players that could be sold and different purchase strategies available to achieve this jump. That being said if he really wants to go it is the best way for both sides to achieve what we want right now, I would however hope his final decision comes after meeting with Koeman and if he still isn't into it then go ahead with the sale.

 

[Darth Toffeeman]

Nah mate, the lad will end at the very top of the game, and much as it pains to say, Guardiola is the absolutely perfect manager right now for him to get to that level, the decisions of Hodgson to play those two donleys ahead of him just highlights how bad the national team set up is though really.

end of the day though, do we really expect him to show Loyalty to us mate, we seem to be forgetting we bought him from his boyhood club after he'd only played 20 odd games for them, he's not an Evertonian, wasn't developed through by the club, and can argue the past three seasons he has had an incompetant manager who has tought him absolutely nothing about defending

If he stays I hope he becomes that player. If he leaves I hope he flops.

 

[bluestevon]

Definitely agree that we need to make certain sales to create the player trading profits needed to fast track our jump to another level in this window.

I just think there are other players that could be sold and different purchase strategies available to achieve this jump. That being said if he really wants to go it is the best way for both sides to achieve what we want right now, I would however hope his final decision comes after meeting with Koeman and if he still isn't into it then go ahead with the sale.

The magic number that esk has quoted - think 35-40m we would need to raise is achievable without the sale of either stones or Lukaku mate, but it would take a fair few deals fa;lling into place and also we'd need to get lucky a bit with clubs wanting them and being willing to stump up a fair wedge

Cleverley, Mirallas and Coleman would all represent i believe 100% returns in player trading - as in we would get exactly what we sold them for as a profit Cleverley arrived on a free and both Mirallas and Coleman (not that his fee matters) have been here long enough that the cost of them has depreciated over their contracts to zero i believe

Then your looking at Lennon - who will be down to 3below 4m, Kone not sure but as his current contract is actually a extension - may class the same as Mirallas and Coleman and any sale would be entirely profit

so the problem becomes do we do 1 sale early and its sorted

or do wel try sell anywhere from 4-6 players to get the same return, which will drag on throughout the summer and slow any activity in a huge degree - with no certainty that it will succeed? Tough one to answer really

 

[bluestevon]

Dunno if anyone knows the answer to this, but came to me after the current story about Galat being interested in Naisse, what would actually happen in regards to the player trading figures on a player who wa sinvolved in a player exchange deal between clubs - obviusly one where no fee was involved and it was just a straight up swap deal...

 

[roydo]

Would folk take one of Moshiris concerns doing a naming rights number on Goodison to achieve the necessary "profit", but keep the players we would want to keep for football, not accounting, purposes?

If it was for a few years till we move to the docks, reckon I could stomach that.

 

[The Esk]

The magic number that esk has quoted - think 35-40m we would need to raise is achievable without the sale of either stones or Lukaku mate,

We can raise less than that but then we have less to spend on salaries.

I'm pretty sure that Moshiri realises the importance of catching up with Spurs and eventually others in terms of salaries offered. £35 million takes us to Spurs salary levels last season.

 

[bluestevon]

Definitely agree that we need to make certain sales to create the player trading profits needed to fast track our jump to another level in this window.

I just think there are other players that could be sold and different purchase strategies available to achieve this jump. That being said if he really wants to go it is the best way for both sides to achieve what we want right now, I would however hope his final decision comes after meeting with Koeman and if he still isn't into it then go ahead with the sale.

Also thinking about how the transfer value depreciation over the course of the contract my original assumptions about the likes of McCarthy etc not being easy to shift and not making much dent into that figure are way way wrong.

McCarthy cost roughly 14m, 3/5ths of the way through the contract now, so his actual value re player trading figures would now be less than 6m, sell him for 15-16 and thats a nice 10m of the figure we aim to reach sorted ... hmmm

 

[bluestevon]

We can raise less than that but then we have less to spend on salaries.

I'm pretty sure that Moshiri realises the importance of catching up with Spurs and eventually others in terms of salaries offered. £35 million takes us to Spurs salary levels last season.

If Stones is sold mate, we will massively move past the value you've estimated us wanting to reach, especially so if certain other players are sold, be interesting if Moshiri has a goal that he won't go above wage threshold wise initially though or if he wil go the maximum he can get us too

 

[bobbydigital]

The magic number that esk has quoted - think 35-40m we would need to raise is achievable without the sale of either stones or Lukaku mate, but it would take a fair few deals fa;lling into place and also we'd need to get lucky a bit with clubs wanting them and being willing to stump up a fair wedge

Cleverley, Mirallas and Coleman would all represent i believe 100% returns in player trading - as in we would get exactly what we sold them for as a profit Cleverley arrived on a free and both Mirallas and Coleman (not that his fee matters) have been here long enough that the cost of them has depreciated over their contracts to zero i believe

Then your looking at Lennon - who will be down to 3below 4m, Kone not sure but as his current contract is actually a extension - may class the same as Mirallas and Coleman and any sale would be entirely profit

so the problem becomes do we do 1 sale early and its sorted

or do wel try sell anywhere from 4-6 players to get the same return, which will drag on throughout the summer and slow any activity in a huge degree - with no certainty that it will succeed? Tough one to answer really

Agree with you in that Coleman, Mirallas and Cleverly would be the players where we would make substantial player trading profits from.

Going back to Esk's original post though, he has us bringing in five 120k per week players plus also replacing Piennar, Howard, Osman and Hibbert. I think we can improve immensely through bringing in these five 120k players who can also act as replacements for the players I just mentioned (they have been good servants but really didn't contribute a lot last year). Also guys like Dowell can step in and replace them too as a cheaper alternative. This would reduce the wage increase needed by quite a lot.

I get that we want to quickly get to the wage structure and level of Spurs, Liverpool etc, but do we really need a ton of expensive players sitting on the bench next season, especially when we don't have Europe.

 

[gixerk6]

If it came down to it is rather sell Barkley than Stones. For me Barkley seems to have taken a step back. Whether it was Martinez that was the cause of this or not we will see this season if he is still here. Like Stones his decision making has been a bit poor this season and I lost track of how many times he ballooned the ball over the bar when shooting. I just feel that Stones at this moment in time can live up to the potential more than Ross.
Also why do people always say sell Cleverley. We've just given him a new contract so I think he's off the table unless someone offers stupid money for him (which won't happen)

 

[Simon baker]

This is a good and worthwhile article @The Esk please keep us informed of FFP stuff. What this highlights to me are 2 things;
1) The need to have an experienced, top draw DOF experienced in player trading and budgets
2) The requirement to continue to produce young players.

What is required is a DOF who is able to link strategy between what is possible commercially and what is possible on the pitch. Someone who is able to see the bigger picture and set realistic budgets accordingly. At times this is going to mean tough conversations with a manager or those on the commercial side, or realistic assessments to the Chairman if the commercial side is not growing as well as it ought.

Put simply this is not reasonable or fair to expect a manager to have to deal with these problems while trying to manage the team. Considering how far 100 million may go may mean taking tough decisions to (as you’ve indicated) let John Stones go, not out of necessity or out of any want to lose him but just as a move in the bigger picture.

A manager’s view of the bigger picture will always be heavily tainted by immediate success on the pitch. I have no problem with that but we do need someone who takes a step back and views it from afar. I can think of few managers who would want to sell John Stones, but as you said it does make financial sense.

Fortunately I do think Moshiri understands this and is spending a lot of time dealing with it. Under Kenwright despite often doing good trading very often we were reactive. We waited until we got a big offer for a player then recruited well. In the situation we are entering we will need much more proactive thinking.

The point about the youth academy is central. Firstly as they could allow us to show profits very easily. We could easily turn in 40 million on Ross Barkley for example. Also the wages they are paid tend to be a little bit less, certainly in the initial period than more experienced squad players we bring in. I would like to see a squad of 22-23 first team senior pro’s and the rest of the squad made up of younger players (this can be re-assessed once we are in Europe). For me this has to be a central part of the DOF mandate and why a DOF needs to be employed.

Of the figures you are talking about I am not sure we will bring in 5 120k p/w players. I would be delighted if we did but at this stage I’d be happy with 1-2 of them and probably 3-4 on half that wage. If we analyse that we already save 180k p/w or 9 million per year.

Likewise I don’t think you can underestimate the loss of Howard/Osman/Peinaar & Hibbert. I would imagine that’s 200k off the wage bill there. If we are bringing 5 players in already I can’t see us signing replacements for those players they will come from below. Even if we sign 1 and assume we give wage rises to 4 young players of 15k per week each and our spend is say 100k we are saving another 5 million on your original figures. (Total at 14 million).

I would say, the likes of Lennon, Cleverley, Gibson, Kone & Oviedo we should listen to offers for. Maybe we will show a bit of profit there (on Cleverlkey mainly) of possibly 5 million. I would again estimate that we would be losing 10 million off the wage bill. That takes us close to 30 million saved on your original figures.

Of course we may need to buy another couple in but suddenly through taking big decisions you can close the gap without the sale of Stones.

What is says to me clearly is we need competent people at each bit of the board displaying “joined up thinking” of which the manager is part. In the past we’ve had neither of those things. We’ve had clueless members of the board with no idea how to grow the brand and managers who grew increasingly resentful and entrenched.

I would say there are 5 key aspects that Moshiri was looking to overhaul;
1) New manager
2) New DOF
3) New ground
4) Increase clubs none TV related revenue streams
5) Improvement of playing squad

They are all linked and so far we have only attained 1 of those. We are starting from a very low base which is a negative as we have fallen behind but also a positive as there is a lot of improvements that can be made quite quickly.

Anyway thanks for the post. It just illustrates to me the importance of getting a top draw DOF in.

great post mate.

I'm sat hear wondering wether the fact that being an evertonian with our financial woes & having to become knowledgable on footbal financials is a good thing or would I rather be ignorant like almost every other fan I meet & talk too.

They say Ignorance is bliss & in many ways A poorly ran Everton & modern football has meant we have lost our innocence.

 

[deipnosophist]

If I owned say a market stall and sold a cheap Everton cup for £300m to Everton to put in the managers office as part of the furniture...
I then invested £300m in advertising my market stall at say... um.. I dunno.. ooh Everton would be good... Despite my market stall only having one cup that I just sold..

Despite the obviousness of it. Would that be legal?

Good idea - we could put the cup in our trophy cabinet