If we do sell Richy, and assuming Tarkwoski is all but done, we're left with this for me next season. Anyone in red can/will/should go and then reinforcements brought in. Frankly the middle of the park is frightening but we already knew that.
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This a pretty helpful guide actually (even if it demonstrates just how weak the squad depth is).
The new rule about five substitutions is a BIG factor - or at least it SHOULD be - in this summer's transfer activity. Why? Because it will cause two things to happen:
1) A greater premium will be placed on pacy players. The risk of them running themselves into the ground on 60 minutes will not change, but each manager will have more scope on any given matchday to remove an exhausted player and replace him with fresh legs.
2) Squad players will start to get more game time. Any team with sufficient squad depth will play a higher-tempo game, trying to exhaust the opposition, and will therefore use more substitutes more regularly.
What I think this means for us is that whilst we may be tempted to sell Davies, Holgate and Gray to make tidy profits for FFP purposes (because they each arrived for very low or non-existent fees), they will in fact stay because they are among the more modest wage-earners and will therefore be key in bulking out the squad. I think we're going to see a clear priority being placed on getting the highest earners off the payroll to create a more lasting positive FFP impact, and the only big transfer fees we will consider paying will be for players aged between 18 and 23 who have shown recent promise in the Championship, or one of the better European leagues.
I don't see how we can afford to keep Mina in any scenario. If Tarkowski DOES arrive, I don't see how or why we'd keep Keane. Branthwaite out on loan makes sense so then we'd need one more CB in to give us enough to go 4 at the back every week... if we are going to adopt any formation using 3 CBs on a regular basis then the new 5-sub rule means Branthwaite would get more regular game time, so he would stay.
Midfield is a mess. Doucoure and Iwobi are the only ones I'd definitely keep from an on-field performance point of view, but for finance reasons Allan and Davies could stay as backups. Allan equally could go, with my blessing and thanks, if an offer exceeding his book value came in. Gomes has to depart - loan or permanent doesn't matter, as long as his wages come off the payroll. Gbamin can stay IF his wages are modest (no idea if they are) because the five subs rule might see him get more game time.
Dele Alli is a real quandry. If he stays and appears regularly (which would be inevitable in the 5 subs regime) then we're going to be handing over at least £10m this season to Spurs, AND paying his wage (which I suspect is at the higher end of our payroll). The FFP hit for this guy will be considerable (the fee will be spread over the remaining years of his contract) and therefore he needs to make a consistent, significant impact to justify it. Aside from my gut feeling about the likelihood of him doing so, there is also the issue that our finances are such that we cannot take many of these types of gambles - he's not a youngster anymore so we can't be guaranteed a decent fee for him if he struggles and we decide to sell.
The front line is so threadbare it picks itself, and the need for reinforcements is blindingly obvious. There's no way we can sell DCL or Gray if Richarlison goes - we already need a striker, even if Richarlison stays!
PS - there's no way we will set up in a 4231 or a 343 on a regular basis this year. Both require two high-quality deep midfielders: we currently have none, and lack the FFP spending freedom to bring in more than one. We'd need to unearth a complete diamond in the rough for very low wages to get a second one in, and we aren't that lucky.