Everton Transfer Thread - Summer 2020

[TheBigIguana]

It's a fair point, but I also think we have to acknowledge players in their late 20's and above also have a value. In truth our record with them has actually been very good. Smith (who I see as a bit of a prototype for Ancelotti but ultimately inferior) used the market very well, particularly players with who he knew previously.

I'll be honest if I was going to go big with 1 player from Napoli who was older it would be Koulibaly, who is world class. However I think Allan is good and probably the position we need a player in more desperately.

Players don't just stop at 31, there are lots of players who play well into their mid 30's. So if Carlo wants him and the price is ok I'm ok.

For me the price is ok means what we paid for Delph as an example.

I still see our chances of success on the scale everyone wants as a process that will take at least 2 years but probably 3 or more. So add 3 to everyone's age when we are signing them they need to be good still at that point.

 

[catcherintherye]

For me the price is ok means what we paid for Delph as an example.

I still see our chances of success on the scale everyone wants as a process that will take at least 2 years but probably 3 or more. So add 3 to everyone's age when we are signing them they need to be good still at that point.

I think we can squeeze Allan to potentially under £20m depending on the severity of what happens over coming weeks.

I also don't think we can look at 3 year blocks as easily. History can move forward in big leaps. There will be a good opportunity this summer, and I could envisage a scenario where we have a genuine top 4 squad if certain things fall our way.

If Allan ticks a big box that the manager feels needs ticking then sometimes you take a short cut. Having a midfielder who can play in a 2 is a big thing for this formation and I'd say Allans strength is his versatility and that he doesn't seem to have many weaknesses.

 

[TheBigIguana]

I think we can squeeze Allan to potentially under £20m depending on the severity of what happens over coming weeks.

I also don't think we can look at 3 year blocks as easily. History can move forward in big leaps. There will be a good opportunity this summer, and I could envisage a scenario where we have a genuine top 4 squad if certain things fall our way.

If Allan ticks a big box that the manager feels needs ticking then sometimes you take a short cut. Having a midfielder who can play in a 2 is a big thing for this formation and I'd say Allans strength is his versatility and that he doesn't seem to have many weaknesses.

I personally find it hard to believe a massive financial crisis across football is going to turn into a big opportunity for us to step in and suddenly punch with the top clubs. We will probably be impacted too and that will keep us where we are.

Everton's problem is that they're trying to compete in a game that is not fair to them using the same processes that the teams that have the advantages are using. It can't work. I'm not qualified nor do I have the time to find the precise answer, but I don't think signing players and praying for a bunch of breaks every season is it.

 

[catcherintherye]

I personally find it hard to believe a massive financial crisis across football is going to turn into a big opportunity for us to step in and suddenly punch with the top clubs. We will probably be impacted too and that will keep us where we are.

Everton's problem is that they're trying to compete in a game that is not fair to them using the same processes that the teams that have the advantages are using. It can't work. I'm not qualified nor do I have the time to find the precise answer, but I don't think signing players and praying for a bunch of breaks every season is it.

The answer is quite straight forward. Everton have to recruit better than sides above them. They have to find value where the top sides dont.

For lots of people this has come to mean, signing players 25 and under. While there is enormous overlap between the two, I dont think the two are automatically the same thing.

 

[Dymak]

We aren't a big club. If we act like a big club, we will fail.

We are a big club. We are 19th on Deloitte's WORLD's top 20 rich list. We have just submitted a planning application for a stadium that will cost 600 million pound. I'm sorry, but they are pretty big indicators of being a big club. Everton have been 'acting' like a big club for centuries mate, our idea of failing is not being in the top six, or going without winning a trophy for a while. Again, indicators of being a big club. 'Acting' like a big club isn't a novel experiment for Everton Football Club, we've always been a big club FFS.

Struggling to think of the last time a big club spent big money on a 29-year-old myself

Some of these are from ages ago, before transfer fees went huge, but Berabatov, Ruud Van Nistolrooy, Zlatan, Larrson, Matic.

All much better investments than paying well over 100 million for Siggurdsson, Klassen, Iwobi, Keane and Kean. Expensive trash that takes us nowhere and are of the same quality that we were purchasing during the Kenwright austerity years. Most will leave at a loss or on a free having taken us nowhere.

Allan won't even cost that much imo. About 25 million, 5 million more than Schneilderlin who was bought 'at the right age' but is going to leave on a free having stunk the gaff out to high heaven.

 

[TheBigIguana]

The answer is quite straight forward. Everton have to recruit better than sides above them. They have to find value where the top sides dont.

For lots of people this has come to mean, signing players 25 and under. While there is enormous overlap between the two, I dont think the two are automatically the same thing.

I am curious then how Allan would represent finding some kind of hidden value?

Yes though, I do think that younger players tend to be where the top sides currently miss. Very few are stockpiling players 20-23 that seem to have big futures and trying to develop them simply because they don't have to. They can buy all those players at 25 when they're top notch. Since we can't it would make sense imo to get in the door earlier. It isn't fool proof but it can work if we commit to it, which might mean not gaining anything right away. But as we aren't gaining anything right now anyway, why should that matter?

 

[bluebud]

Struggling to think of the last time a big club spent big money on a 29-year-old myself

Allan is about 18 months younger than Gana Guaye so he's younger now than when we sold Gana for 30mil, if we could get him for half that price it'd be a decent deal? Carlo and his medical/ analyst team will know all about his fitness levels and injury record.

 

[Dymak]

I am curious then how Allan would represent finding some kind of hidden value?

I think the point is that his value isn't hidden; that his value is transparent, and that we wouldn't be spending 30 million on someone that has a worse goal scoring record than Anichebe at the same age, in the hope that he might become the next Drogba.

I'm no expert on Allan. But this point about hidden or proven talent very much underpins my feelings on Everton transfers right now. I think the never ending 'steady progress' plan has been a failure, and that we need to go out and buy proven quality players now that we have finally gone out and obtained a proven quality manager.

 

[bluebud]

Midfield

Allan(29) in Delph (30) out
Rabiot(25) in Sig(30) out
Sangare(21) in Schneiderlin(30) out
Besic out
Tom on loan to Shalke.

Plus Gomes(26) and Gbamin(24)
5 midfielders, balanced age range and skill sets, plenty of cover for ACON or CA.

 

[TheBigIguana]

I think the point is that his value isn't hidden; that his value is transparent, and that we wouldn't be spending 30 million on someone that has a worse goal scoring record than Anichebe at the same age, in the hope that he might become the next Drogba.

I'm no expert on Allan. But this point about hidden or proven talent very much underpins my feelings on Everton transfers right now. I think the never ending 'steady progress' plan has been a failure, and that we need to go out and buy proven quality players now that we have finally gone out and obtained a proven quality manager.

We've never actually done a steady progress plan. At least not with money. We might have done under Moyes but it doesn't really matter what you do when you go entire seasons without a permanent signing.

The idea that we are going to go out and buy enough "proven quality players" to compete with any of the "Big 6" is a fantasy. There simply aren't enough of them out there who aren't already on clubs better than us or who don't think that they should be on one of them. The pool who will sign for us is too small.

Think about how many of those signings we've made in the last ten years who weren't on their last legs (so not Barry or Eto'o). I'll count Lukaku, but he was young and that changed the perception of him for other clubs. Digne probably counts. Any others? I'm not sure exactly how you can make a top squad at that rate.

And think about the ones who were supposed to fit into that category but failed. Klaassen for example was in this group. Sigurdsson probably too. Delph. It's a losing plan.

 

[Stephenlloyd]

I am curious then how Allan would represent finding some kind of hidden value?

Yes though, I do think that younger players tend to be where the top sides currently miss. Very few are stockpiling players 20-23 that seem to have big futures and trying to develop them simply because they don't have to. They can buy all those players at 25 when they're top notch. Since we can't it would make sense imo to get in the door earlier. It isn't fool proof but it can work if we commit to it, which might mean not gaining anything right away. But as we aren't gaining anything right now anyway, why should that matter?

I think buying young is the philosophy abd still will be with Brands in charge. But once Ancelotti came available Moshiri wasn’t giving that chance up. So I think we will slightly move away from that philosophy.

You don’t employ Ancelotti and pay him and his team a fortune and give them a gang of kids to coach.

So I do think he will want players ready to walk straight into the team and be at their peak, might be next summer before that happens, but I’m sure it will and soon.

 

[Zatara]

@bluebud @catcherintherye @TheBigIguana @Dymak

The main reasons I can see to sign an older player are:

They give you a short term (1-3 years) high level of performance which theoretically means that players around them benefit.

Young players potential can be fasttracked with top players around them.

You will get consistent performance while with younger players they will be inconsistent and usually far more expensive.


If there is a drop in values this year with rebounds predicted in 1-2 years time, then it would be pure stupidity to sign 'assets' which will further decrease in value. What we pay now could well be at their highest price.

Rather than Allan lets say we go for Sangare, instead of James we sign Tonali etc etc.

Those 'investments' even if the players performances stay the same the market values will rise in 1-2 seasons.

However, the exception to this would be if their fees are very low (or free), loans and we also sign u23 players around them.

There should be so much value now that players worth £60mil+ (Zaniolo / Tonali etc) will now be valued at £30-40mil.

We need to be going after that market and aiming for the long term growth of the club. We could even buy them simply to double our money in 2 seasons time.

 

[Zatara]

I think buying young is the philosophy abd still will be with Brands in charge. But once Ancelotti came available Moshiri wasn’t giving that chance up. So I think we will slightly move away from that philosophy.

You don’t employ Ancelotti and pay him and his team a fortune and give them a gang of kids to coach.

So I do think he will want players ready to walk straight into the team and be at their peak, might be next summer before that happens, but I’m sure it will and soon.

I think we were going for Allan + James (or similar) with some young players as well.

Now i think we'll have bigger targets from clubs who need the money...we'll be after better younger players.

I can see Ihattaren signing for example.

 

[TheBigIguana]

I think buying young is the philosophy abd still will be with Brands in charge. But once Ancelotti came available Moshiri wasn’t giving that chance up. So I think we will slightly move away from that philosophy.

You don’t employ Ancelotti and pay him and his team a fortune and give them a gang of kids to coach.

So I do think he will want players ready to walk straight into the team and be at their peak, might be next summer before that happens, but I’m sure it will and soon.

Ancelotti is clearly very good at what he does, but I don't think he's a miracle worker, and that is what it will take to compete with City and the RS (and potentially Chelsea or United if they ever get it right) if we try to only sign players that are at 100% of their ability when we sign them. We have to develop and if Moshiri is going to go away from that every time something shiny can be bought we will fail.

Or they can come up with a system that values abilities in players that other teams don't and takes advantage of that. But that is also going to be hard to do with a manager who has been following a pretty normal set of principles for two decades.

But simply saying we are going to buy better players is so far from reality that we might as well be playing Football Manager. It won't happen.

 

[Stephenlloyd]

We've never actually done a steady progress plan. At least not with money. We might have done under Moyes but it doesn't really matter what you do when you go entire seasons without a permanent signing.

The idea that we are going to go out and buy enough "proven quality players" to compete with any of the "Big 6" is a fantasy. There simply aren't enough of them out there who aren't already on clubs better than us or who don't think that they should be on one of them. The pool who will sign for us is too small.

Think about how many of those signings we've made in the last ten years who weren't on their last legs (so not Barry or Eto'o). I'll count Lukaku, but he was young and that changed the perception of him for other clubs. Digne probably counts. Any others? I'm not sure exactly how you can make a top squad at that rate.

And think about the ones who were supposed to fit into that category but failed. Klaassen for example was in this group. Sigurdsson probably too. Delph. It's a losing plan.

Have you not watched this season, while we where poor under silva we improved under Ferguson and then Ancelotti, throw in injuries and some bad VAR decisions going against us, we aren’t a that far behind a few of the big 6. And I know we are 12th but it’s quite bunched up.

Abd while we don’t know what we will spend this summer, there’s a good chance Arsenal abd spurs won’t spend much. Arsenal have been poor. Spurs now have a negative manger. And there best player injury prone. I actually think with good recruitment and luck going are way, we could easily challenge for a top 6 place next season