Match Thread Everton v Aston Villa - Preview, Match Report and MotM Poll
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carolinablue232
Player Valuation: £70m
I really don’t think Villa are very good, and the fact that Ings is gone makes me feel even better. Can’t be losing if we want to start anything that even resembles momentum. I expect a hard fought 1-0 that could go either way.
Chrismac
Player Valuation: £15m
They were brilliant first half, have a feeling Lopetegui will have them safe long before the final weeks
Arenal have pace all through the team.
Leeds have pace in Gnonto and others.
We’ve got this
Been a long time since we beat these
I think we are due a win you know
I think we are due a win you know
Try and be positive is all we can do just have to see what happens after the game. Is another game at home that us fans can push this team on.
ForeverBlue92
Player Valuation: £80m
1-1
Jeff Jones
Player Valuation: £35m
There are plenty of candidates for that title and at least Lampard had a very good spell at the end of last season, which kept us up.
On topic, forecasting match results is pretty much a calculated guess and I'm just hoping for the best with a bit more confidence
that we can do better than in our last few efforts against these.
Do we get 3 if they don't turn up...
Tarkowski is 20/1 to score with a header. (Bet365).Sporting life are predicting the opposite result and frankly betting on a goal for Tarkowski from a corner looks like free money!
Everton v Aston Villa
Jake Osgathorpe (@JAKEOZZ)
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Everton 6/4 | Draw 11/5 | Aston Villa 19/10
I'm revisiting a bet that went oh so close a few weeks ago when Everton played at Anfield, with JAMES TARKOWSKI TO SCORE ANYTIME again an appetising price given the underlying data involved.
In what will likely be a tight game with few goals, a set-piece could prove pivotal, and that is a strength of Everton against a weakness of Aston Villa.
Since Sean Dyche took charge of the Toffees - an admittedly small sample of three games - his side have racked up 1.84 xGF from set-pieces alone, with that representing 46% of the total xGF Everton have mustered in that time.
In their two games at Goodison Park, both which were won 1-0, they have racked up 0.55 xG from dead-ball situations against Arsenal, and a huge 1.15 against Leeds, highlighting their threat.
Aston Villa have looked very suspect defending set-pieces allowing on average four shots from such situations across their last six matches, while conceding 0.46 xGA per game from dead-ball settings.
So this appears to be something the hosts can exploit this weekend, and Tarkowski has been the main target.
In three games since Dyche took over, the Englishman has registered two shots and a goal against Arsenal, hit the post with his only shot against Liverpool, and last time out against Leeds he had two attempts with one on target.
He is a handful, and his xG/95 since reuniting with his former boss is at a whopping 0.26, and for context, across that same date range, that means he has been a more potent attacking threat than all of Michail Antonio (0.22), Heung-min Son (0.18), Kevin De Bruyne (0.16), Allan Saint-Maximin (0.14) and Kaoru Mitoma (0.09).
15/1 looks large here, especially as the same bet is as short as 13/2 elsewhere.
Score prediction: Everton 1-0 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 2200 GMT (22/02/23)
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