Presumably he is fully aware of the reasons the previous deal collapsed, so he must be comfortable with the risk on that point at least. Otherwise why bother going into this process.My gut feeling is that Textor's risktaking will be higher than Friedkin's and this may well be the one that gets done in spite of the known issues.
Its still going to be a long process before we know if the deal will complete, but I tend to agree with you that it feels like this could be the one.