Lukaku

[mythbuster]

I agree he's worth around £15m based on what he can do now, but I disagree with you about potential.

That's the big discussion point - because has he really shown much development to his first touch or hold up play since he broke onto the scene? Not for me... in my view he's just been really, really good from the off in terms of power and movement off the shoulder of his marker, so much so that areas of his game that are weak doesn't come into play as much.

But there were signs last year that his potential to improve isn't there, as he often didn't turn up for games at all. In fact, barring his initial run in the side before Christmas and a late spurt at the end, he was downright awful for a good four months.

I'd be all for buying him for around £15m, but I wouldn't expect anything other than what we've already seen for him, and he isn't a world class talent right now. For that reason, £20m feels excessive to me.

£15 million, or even £20 million, does not buy you a world class striker. It certainly doesn't buy you a 20-year-old world class striker. Since when were we in the market for world class strikers anyway?

 

[mythbuster]

Name me a physically mature 20 year old striker and then we have a realistic base for comparison.

Andy Carroll was massive at that age mate x

 

[Foot Long Hot Dog]

He's scored more league goals than Aguero, Dzeko and Rooney in the last 2 seasons

Anyone who thinks we can do better than him is on crack imo

 

[Tubey]

He's scored more league goals than Aguero, Dzeko and Rooney in the last 2 seasons

Anyone who thinks we can do better than him is on crack imo

I don't necessarily think we can, but I think the belief that it's a no brainer as we'll be able to sell him on for a profit is a bit premature as there's every chance he doesn't push on beyond the level he's at now.

 

[Tubey]

£15 million, or even £20 million, does not buy you a world class striker. It certainly doesn't buy you a 20-year-old world class striker. Since when were we in the market for world class strikers anyway?

£15/20m for us is £45/60m for the sides around us - it's a big sum of money that you can't just throw away on a player without careful consideration. So it's all about palatable risk - £15m feels fair for what he's done and the weaknesses he's shown, whereas a 25% increase on that feels like pushing the boat out a bit too far.

I can fully understand people saying do whatever we can to bring him in as it's always good to have an effective striker, but for me I'm a little more cautious with him, as Lukaku has as many off days as he has good days. The thing is, when he's good, he's very very good.

 

[Foot Long Hot Dog]

I don't necessarily think we can, but I think the belief that it's a no brainer as we'll be able to sell him on for a profit is a bit premature as there's every chance he doesn't push on beyond the level he's at now.

Even if he didn't push on significantly from where he is now, he'd still be a top level PL striker in 4 years time. Who'd be 25 with 7 years under his belt. He'd have to morph into Ameobi to be worth less than £20m - given the inevitable inflation that'll occur in that time frame.

 

[RaleighBlue]

I agree he's worth around £15m based on what he can do now, but I disagree with you about potential.

That's the big discussion point - because has he really shown much development to his first touch or hold up play since he broke onto the scene? Not for me... in my view he's just been really, really good from the off in terms of power and movement off the shoulder of his marker, so much so that areas of his game that are weak doesn't come into play as much.

But there were signs last year that his potential to improve isn't there, as he often didn't turn up for games at all. In fact, barring his initial run in the side before Christmas and a late spurt at the end, he was downright awful for a good four months.

I'd be all for buying him for around £15m, but I wouldn't expect anything other than what we've already seen for him, and he isn't a world class talent right now. For that reason, £20m feels excessive to me.

I see your point, but think that you're being a bit harsh (although understandably cautious) when it comes to him having a downright awful four months.

I personally don't think that it's a coincidence that his poor stretches came after being in the team every match for a long stretch of time. His best stretches were when he started for us, and then when he came back from injury. He had no cover, and didn't have any competition for his place. When his form dipped, he still had to play 90 minutes a match. His form seemed to dip after about a month or two of solid performances, and didn't come back until he'd had a rest.

He needed cover. And if we buy him, he'll still need cover. I believe our push for fourth died when Traore got his second hamstring injury - dooming Rom to be the only choice striker when fit.

I still think Everton have to shoot for the moon when it comes to a striker. Liverpool reached second simply by having top strikers. And not having top strikers is what's held us back. We must take a risk to get that top striker if it's even a possibility.

Worst case, he doesn't improve much and we still have a 15-20 goal a season striker.

 

[mythbuster]

£15/20m for us is £45/60m for the sides around us - it's a big sum of money that you can't just throw away on a player without careful consideration. So it's all about palatable risk - £15m feels fair for what he's done and the weaknesses he's shown, whereas a 25% increase on that feels like pushing the boat out a bit too far.

I can fully understand people saying do whatever we can to bring him in as it's always good to have an effective striker, but for me I'm a little more cautious with him, as Lukaku has as many off days as he has good days. The thing is, when he's good, he's very very good.

He's inconsistent, I agree, but think of it this way mate; in 2010 he was 16-years-old - in 2024, he'll be 30-years-old.

 

[hafnia]

I agree he's worth around £15m based on what he can do now, but I disagree with you about potential.

That's the big discussion point - because has he really shown much development to his first touch or hold up play since he broke onto the scene? Not for me... in my view he's just been really, really good from the off in terms of power and movement off the shoulder of his marker, so much so that areas of his game that are weak doesn't come into play as much.

But there were signs last year that his potential to improve isn't there, as he often didn't turn up for games at all. In fact, barring his initial run in the side before Christmas and a late spurt at the end, he was downright awful for a good four months.

I'd be all for buying him for around £15m, but I wouldn't expect anything other than what we've already seen for him, and he isn't a world class talent right now. For that reason, £20m feels excessive to me.

I think people just subscribe to "He's 21 and will get better..." therefore take current goals + a little bit of fantasy and end up with George Weah.

Anything but poor touch and technique and I would have no issues.

 

[Tubey]

Even if he didn't push on significantly from where he is now, he'd still be a top level PL striker in 4 years time. Who'd be 25 with 7 years under his belt. He'd have to morph into Ameobi to be worth less than £20m - given the inevitable inflation that'll occur in that time frame.

We're talking about a club record purchase who'll be one of, if not the top earner at the club. This is a 20 year old we'd be breaking the bank for. There are a few established strikers or possible prospects across Europe that would cost a fraction of that and we could bring in two or three to bolster the entire squad in multiple areas. If you look at the Moyes era success, this is exactly what we did with the likes of Mirallas. In recent times we've bought low and sold high and, whilst in every other respect I prefer the Martinez method of management, I think it'd be a game changer if we started to buy high and hope to sell even higher.

We look around and see clubs splashing £20m+ on squad players in the modern era and it's easy to think that's the norm now and that £20m is small change, but for us it really isn't. We can't afford a situation like with Yakubu where we saw a player start on fire and melt down (albeit partially through injury) to the point where he's basically released.

I don't think that will happen, but on the flip side I definitely don't think Lukaku is a no brainer for £20m.

 

[Mogwai]

£15/20m for us is £45/60m for the sides around us - it's a big sum of money that you can't just throw away on a player without careful consideration. So it's all about palatable risk - £15m feels fair for what he's done and the weaknesses he's shown, whereas a 25% increase on that feels like pushing the boat out a bit too far.

I can fully understand people saying do whatever we can to bring him in as it's always good to have an effective striker, but for me I'm a little more cautious with him, as Lukaku has as many off days as he has good days. The thing is, when he's good, he's very very good.

Exactly why I think it should be and probably most likely will be around 15 if we do get him... But with a series of tangible addons taking it to 20+...otherwise I just don't think we would do it...

 

[Tubey]

I think people just subscribe to "He's 21 and will get better..." therefore take current goals + a little bit of fantasy and end up with George Weah.

Anything but poor touch and technique and I would have no issues.

Indeedy - I'd rather have a technically gifted youngster with weaker physical attributes than an Anichebe-built warhorse who can't trap a ball, as with the technical kid you have something to work with.

I think Lukaku does have technical ability, but not to the extent to suggest he's going to go on and be an unplayable world beater any time soon. As someone said, yes, we're Everton, so we're not looking at world class strikers, but on the flip side we shouldn't be looking to blow £20m+ on someone who isn't either.

 

[hafnia]

Andy Carroll was massive at that age mate x

Now there is another player who has proven that from 20 onwards technique and touch does not improve... he scored 17 league goals at 20 years old

 

[mythbuster]

Now there is another player who has proven that from 20 onwards technique and touch does not improve...

Nope, he's a pikey who thinks he's made it.

 

[Tubey]

Nope, he's a pikey who thinks he's made it.

... and Lukaku is a Belgian who thinks he should be a number one striker at a Champions League club. The lad has an ego, and that can be a very good thing as winners do have egos, but lazy people who have egos can become complacent and a liability.

I still have no clue what camp Lukaku falls in. Sometimes he comes across as well spoken, then the next minute he looks like a daft kid full of self-importance.