I think you are posing a lot of important questions but perhaps the conclusions aren't always spot on.
If I was being a pedant I might say it's closer to 45 million on 2 players but I get your point. Overall I think the two signings are ok, and helped us stay up last season (at time sit was a bit touch and go, and their intervention is some critical games was the difference. Think Leicester, Newcastle, Brighton at home and Stoke/Huddersfield away. 15 points there, without those 15 points, we'd have had 34 and you'd look at those 5 games and wonder how many we would have achieved? So they were important players in the mess we were in.
I'm not sure either had the pedigree to take us where we wanted to go though. Arsenal, who are around the 4-6th best team in the league had bombed Walcott out. Tosun was 27 and hardly setting the world alight before that, he had had a good season and there is no doubt is something of a late bloomer, but 27 and in the Turkish league is hardly a rising endorsement.
They are probably the 2 big disappointments this season for me. While Gana has shown some good form, Sigurdsson and Keane have really kicked on,the younger players are getting better and the new signings show promise the loss of form of those two lads has been significant. I would have hoped they would have had at least 15 league goals between them. They are on about 5. Splash those 10 goals about, we probably have 8 extra points, maybe upwards of 10. The table looks very different.
I think to answer your broader question, there's no conspiracy. It's easy looking from the outside to see they are all failing in the same way. They all failed in different ways, but ultimately footballers and football managers lacking confidence or clarity of thought often present teams playing the same way. Cautious, unambitious, timid & lazy. It's not a tactical gameplan, it's a result of a game plan not working and a standard default position.
The answer to me is we need a period of continuity. Part of this will come with Brands, who clearly sees the long term vision and doesn't make short term decisions to paper over cracks (which to an extent Walcott and Tosun are). Silva needs at least a year too as do many of the players we have brought in. Not just because he's done enough to earn it, but because we need to get into the habit of giving all managers time.
I think we will see a similar pattern with most managers. Players will improve for a time, then we will hit a difficult period and the manager will need to show they can overcome that. Thats where we are at with Silva now. If he does, both he and the players will be a lot stronger for it.
I happen to agree with you as well. Going to plug the gap of Tosun/Walcott with another Tosun/Walcott flavour of the month will not solve issues in the medium term.
Brilliant post, mate.
And the bit in bold nails it, for me.
Also, it's not like Silva has been awful. We have been on an awful run lately, yes, but overall we've shown good things. People have short memories, but this time last month, even despite the derby horror show in the final minute, we were all pretty confident, and before that there were shouts that we were going to challenge top four (which were of course premature and have been proven to be silly).
We're bang in the middle of the Premier League for the simple fact that we're currently a middle-of-the-road side in a bit of a bad run. Fortunately, there's five other teams in the same boat and one win changes the entire complexion for us, despite our poor form.
So we've seen enough good - and enough bad - from Silva, and the players, so far. It's not like it's all been terrible, as easy as it is to forget the good things, or for people to say 'yeh but what about Huddersfield'.
The season for me can be split into three clear sections so far:
- Early season: some good displays - Wolves, S'ton, most of Bournemouth. Some bad, Huddersfield and West Ham. Promising football.
- Good run: Weirdly enough, I think it started with Arsenal. We went to the Emirates and took the game to them and should have done better with the chances we created. I think that gave the players confidence in Silva's system and style of play too, and it spurred us on. We started beating the teams we should do comfortably enough at home, and put in good away performances (despite not getting the points we wanted in all of them, clearly).
- Bad run: The good run includes and ultimately ends with the derby, and we get our confidence knocked. Mistakes have started to creep in from both players and management and overall we have been poor, although in games like Newcastle and Watford, still did enough to win despite not deserving to do so.
There is a difference. City and Spurs probably knocked the confidence even more and Brighton and Leicester were poor displays all round. Burnley the exception. Tiredness and fatigue and the manager's iffy rotation (no trust?) hasn't helped either.