This type of high-grade conjecture is what I love about this site.
Is there a formula anywhere to rank this stuff?
I tell you why I ask, the above is
at best 5th hand; i.e. Kean to Raiola to Pirlo/other club rep to 'big Juventus fan' to you.
BUT the actual logic of such an event is
quite high:
- Young striker not hitting the high notes
- Away from home, low command of English
- Fancies being in a CL team with Ronaldo vs Gylfi 45m? Absurdsson and Tom Davies
My A-level stats grade was also more Gylfi than Ronaldo too, but working with the classic 1= will 100% happen vs 0= does not happen I think there is some merit in the formula here:
S (Source of news) x R (Relationship) x L(Logic)
- Source
(player, club, other official club rep, agent, media, 'mates' etc) where 1 reduces in increments towards 0 according to the source's role within the 'event'
- Relationship
where 1 reduces to 0 according to the source's proximity to the event. So if the statement was from Kean, Raiola or one of the buying selling clubs give it a high mark and lower the greater the proximity (i.e. Jermaine Jenas or anyone on TalkSport)
- Logic
Slides 1 to 0 according to the proposed event's sense.
'I just saw Ancelotti going into Tesco, he's looking for a defender or a new job. ' (All three could be true but unrelated to each other)
'Mate is an Estate agent covering L4, heard him say football on the phone. We're bringing in Messi.
Using the example above:
Source 0.2
I've gone low-ish since our friend who secretly adores Notts County is not a club official and isn't quoting a published source of any kind, or circumstantial evidence such as "I work in a great restaurant and I saw Kean sobbing and holding Raiola at the bar", or my "g/f works for Plusnet and Raiola reads Kean to sleep each night via Zoom calls"
Relationship 0.2
Our source is arguably a big Juve fan. Massive even (and loves English football's original 'Magpies', too). But the detail of how this privileged and detailed data came to hand is undefined. Since he or she is also not a club official or any of the parties involved, the score is reduced as the info is by definition already 2nd or 3rd hand, in this example
Logic 0.9
As above, the reasons such an event would happen are entirely credible
So 0.2 x 0.2 x 0.9 = 0.036% probability.
There's a variable also which is hard to define, but essentially 'this is football' and could make the whole thing cast iron and lad is gonna do one as reported.For any website nerds like me is there anyway we can quickly rank all the data coming in?
OK it's stopped raining, going back to the gardening now.