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Moneyball. It is witchcraft.

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SerenityNigh said:
Like IJ said, popularized first by the Michael Lewis book (excellent), and then the Brad Pitt movie (not seen--will take IJ's word for it), it's the organizational strategy used by the Oakland A's in the late 90's/early 00's to be competitive against big-money baseball teams. Their advantage was gained using data (lots of data in baseball) and focusing on ignored/undervalued qualities. In baseball, reaching base with a hit is irrationally valued far more than reaching with a walk; they have roughly equivalent value, but some players with low batting average (i.e., poor stats) but great walk rates (which are not counted in BA) generate the same production as the sexier, high-BA player.

Whether "moneyball" as a system can be applied outside of baseball, or even data-loaded sports, is debatable. NBA and hockey seem to have had similar movements, but NFL hasn't been as quick to adopt. Some argue that it can't be applied to football since there isn't reliable data to exploit (@RaleighBlue). I think there's a lot to be gained, but maybe this is closer to what Everton already do (basically, @Allezfan asked me what the hell am I talking about?).
Click to expand...

I think the conversation started because some have suggested the Moores/Noell/Padres group are a "moneyball" group, but that's a spurious suggestion to begin
 
When John Henry took over at the rs, he replaced their scouting and transfer system with a new stats based one inspired by moneyball.

It didn't work. But tbf to henry neither did the preexisting system.

My argument was essentially that our scouting/transfer system is working. We are already getting good players cheaply. We don't need to change it.
 
Allezfan said:
When John Henry took over at the rs, he replaced their scouting and trasnfer system with a new stats based on inpired by moneyball.

It didn't work. But tbf to henry neither did the preexisting system.

My argument was essentially that our scouting/transfer system is working. We are already getting good players cheaply. We don't need to change it.
Click to expand...

Didn't Henry own the Red Sox? They wanted the A's manager bloke if I remember rightly after they'd been boss for a bit.
 

And then it sort of spilled into an argument about baseball vs football and how the sports are differently run and whether that meant you could ever apply methods from one in the other.

And @njligernj tried to convince me that the fact there are only 736 clubs in the fa cup and only about 20 of those were founded this century mean's english football is just as much a closed shop as the 32 team nfl who have let in 2 new clubs since the 70s.
 
I made a moneyball themed thread in here a few months ago which was a massive flop. Leicester have since proved the theory at least somewhat right.
 
SerenityNigh said:
Whether "moneyball" as a system can be applied outside of baseball, or even data-loaded sports, is debatable. NBA and hockey seem to have had similar movements, but NFL hasn't been as quick to adopt. Some argue that it can't be applied to football since there isn't reliable data to exploit (@RaleighBlue). I think there's a lot to be gained, but maybe this is closer to what Everton already do (basically, @Allezfan asked me what the hell am I talking about?).
Click to expand...
Not fully my argument.

These teams are already evaluating the market for inefficiencies (I seem to recall a piece on how David Moyes did all this at Everton, and that some of his staff involved now work at Chelsea and City). Without some massive watershed change in the way talent can be evaluated, there can be no massive watershed revolution. This already is occurring. Moneyball happened in English football with David Moyes' Everton.

We are now in a post-moneyball world, in which the wealthy teams utilize data as much (or more...they have more money!) than anyone else, and will jump on board the latest and greatest data.

There are inefficiencies in the market - the loan system is one Chelsea use to the fullest, for example - but those are being exploited to varying degrees all over the place. The other aspect of this is that many owners/managers/coaches/executives in football are from all over the world. They don't share the 'One True Way' philosophy that so many older generation baseball people did.
 
Allezfan said:
And then it sort of spilled into an argument about baseball vs football and how the sports are differently run and whether that meant you could ever apply methods from one in the other.

And @njligernj tried to convince me that the fact there are only 736 clubs in the fa cup and only about 20 of those were founded this century mean's english football is just as much a closed shop as the 32 team nfl who have let in 2 new clubs since the 70s.
Click to expand...
Also, football teams (generally) don't have taxpayers paying for their stadiums, nor do they have to be exempt from antitrust regulations to simply exist in their current form.

American leagues are so utterly alien from football...they don't translate so well.
 

SerenityNigh said:
Like IJ said, popularized first by the Michael Lewis book (excellent), and then the Brad Pitt movie (not seen--will take IJ's word for it), it's the organizational strategy used by the Oakland A's in the late 90's/early 00's to be competitive against big-money baseball teams. Their advantage was gained using data (lots of data in baseball) and focusing on ignored/undervalued qualities. In baseball, reaching base with a hit is irrationally valued far more than reaching with a walk; they have roughly equivalent value, but some players with low batting average (i.e., poor stats) but great walk rates (which are not counted in BA) generate the same production as the sexier, high-BA player.

Whether "moneyball" as a system can be applied outside of baseball, or even data-loaded sports, is debatable. NBA and hockey seem to have had similar movements, but NFL hasn't been as quick to adopt. Some argue that it can't be applied to football since there isn't reliable data to exploit (@RaleighBlue). I think there's a lot to be gained, but maybe this is closer to what Everton already do (basically, @Allezfan asked me what the hell am I talking about?).
Click to expand...

That cleared up what it meant then.
 

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