Moneyball. It is witchcraft.

[Khalekan]

It's a Baseball thing mate.

Basically a team (Oakland Athletics...but crap and poor like Everton) changed their entire approach to the game using stats rather than star players and the like and went on a massive like 18 game winning steak or something.

Then they went crap again.

There's a great movie with Brad Pitt all about it pal. Watch it. It's good

An excellent film.

At the end John Henry wanted Brad Pitt to take over at Fenway but he stayed out on the coast.

John Henry brought someone else in and used Moneyball to lift the Curse of the Bambino.

sigh........I used to love the Sox.

No visit to Bean Town was complete without taking in a Sox game.

I even went the All Stars game there in 1999 when we were out vacationing on the Cape.

(Jon Jon's plane came down on the Vineyard the day after we were there)

I always thought of the Sox as a baseball equivalent of EFC

Then they went and ruined it all by getting into bed with Satan's Own FC

 

[SerenityNigh]

Not fully my argument.

These teams are already evaluating the market for inefficiencies (I seem to recall a piece on how David Moyes did all this at Everton, and that some of his staff involved now work at Chelsea and City). Without some massive watershed change in the way talent can be evaluated, there can be no massive watershed revolution. This already is occurring. Moneyball happened in English football with David Moyes' Everton.

We are now in a post-moneyball world, in which the wealthy teams utilize data as much (or more...they have more money!) than anyone else, and will jump on board the latest and greatest data.

There are inefficiencies in the market - the loan system is one Chelsea use to the fullest, for example - but those are being exploited to varying degrees all over the place. The other aspect of this is that many owners/managers/coaches/executives in football are from all over the world. They don't share the 'One True Way' philosophy that so many older generation baseball people did.

Fair points, although it seems that many in English football still have a "one true way" mindset

 

[wm02]

Also, football teams (generally) don't have taxpayers paying for their stadiums, nor do they have to be exempt from antitrust regulations to simply exist in their current form.

American leagues are so utterly alien from football...they don't translate so well.

Agreed. Also, you have the amateur draft set-up compared to the academies and Bosman transfers. I think this is a major hurdle in implanting Moneyball in the football world. In baseball, for example, you can have an excellent young player on a very reasonable contract without the fear of having another team come in and offer a substantially more lucrative contract. It allows the teams in smaller markets a discernible window if they have a group of very good, young, cheap players.

 

[SerenityNigh]

That cleared up what it meant then.

We can bring in @mezzrow to discuss the suicide squeeze if you'd like

 

[abelard]

Agreed. Also, you have the amateur draft set-up compared to the academies and Bosman transfers. I think this is a major hurdle in implanting Moneyball in the football world. In baseball, for example, you can have an excellent young player on a very reasonable contract without the fear of having another team come in and offer a substantially more lucrative contract. It allows the teams in smaller markets a discernible window if they have a group of very good, young, cheap players.

Exactly!

 

[Khalekan]

BTW......I don't think Moneyball would work in soccer.

In baseball the owners can tell a player to pack his bags because he is being traded so Brad was able to sit on the phone talking to other coaches and agents and once they agreed on a player the matter was settled.

This would not happen in our game.

 

[wm02]

We can bring in @mezzrow to discuss the suicide squeeze if you'd like

How about the infield fly rule too? I never understood that one and I used to ump.

 

[LouReedwalkonthewildside]

We can bring in @mezzrow to discuss the suicide squeeze if you'd like

Think my head would explode.

 

[RaleighBlue]

Fair points, although it seems that many in English football still have a "one true way" mindset

I think the fans do. And a few coaches, but those are mostly your Allerdyce's that come in and keep you up and stabilize you - and frankly, that's a really efficient thing to do when you don't have a lot of talent.

But most clubs are run by people that recognize that counting stats are not the end all be all, and many factors influence performance. The one thing that blows my mind is how so many continue to believe managers should dictate the transfer policy. Being able to coach football does not necessarily make you a great scout (or great at identifying scouts) and vice versa. But rather than let people focus on their specialty, we should double up their work even when they may be terrible at one side or the other of it.

 

[Allezfan]

I think the fans do. And a few coaches, but those are mostly your Allerdyce's that come in and keep you up and stabilize you - and frankly, that's a really efficient thing to do when you don't have a lot of talent.

But most clubs are run by people that recognize that counting stats are not the end all be all, and many factors influence performance. The one thing that blows my mind is how so many continue to believe managers should dictate the transfer policy. Being able to coach football does not necessarily make you a great scout (or great at identifying scouts) and vice versa. But rather than let people focus on their specialty, we should double up their work even when they may be terrible at one side or the other of it.

Allardyce is the most moneyball coach you'll ever find. He was way ahead of the game in loads of stuff like that.

 

[RaleighBlue]

Allardyce is the most moneyball coach you'll ever find. He was way ahead of the game in loads of stuff like that.

I'll bow to your superior knowledge of football history.

But I wasn't saying he wasn't Moneyball. I was suggesting he abides by the 'One True Way' - lump it up to a big centre forward and defend first and to the death. Which...is what you want when you're hiring someone like him.

I don't think football has an equivalent of the old timer baseball 'One True Way' that still don't accept that (empirically provable) statistic is better than (traditional) statistic. In football it's more of a mindset. And I can see a number of fans that may resist statistical revolution if it were to ever happen.

 

[abelard]

Graham Taylor used to argue that lumping it into the box whenever possible statistically led to the most chances (though I'm not sure I'd trust his calculations...)

 

[Allezfan]

Graham Taylor used to argue that lumping it into the box whenever possible statistically led to the most chances (though I'm not sure I'd trust his calculations...)

Charles Reep is your guy for that. He wrote a whole bunch of books arguing that the long ball game was more efficient. They've been torn apart a lot since then, most notably Jonathan Wilson who made a lot out of the fact that Reep said 70% of all football moves were less than 5 passes and 65% of goals came from less than 5 passes which means that by Reeps own stasitics moves with less than 5 passes are less likely to lead to a goal.

Taylor himself has basically said that his system worked as long as the opposition couldn't keep hold of the ball while under pressure, as soon as he was up against teams who could, in europe and internationally, the system stopped working. I think he said something that he was terrifed everytime he won a promotion that this time he'd finally run into guys who he couldn't beat by playing long ball and it only happened when they played liverpool, everton and sparta prague.

 

[wm02]

Charles Reep is your guy for that. He wrote a whole bunch of books arguing that the long ball game was more efficient. They've been torn apart a lot since then, most notably Jonathan Wilson who made a lot out of the fact that Reep said 70% of all football moves were less than 5 passes and 65% of goals came from less than 5 passes which means that by Reeps own stasitics moves with less than 5 passes are less likely to lead to a goal.

Taylor himself has basically said that his system worked as long as the opposition couldn't keep hold of the ball while under pressure, as soon as he was up against teams who could, in europe and internationally, the system stopped working. I think he said something that he was terrifed everytime he won a promotion that this time he'd finally run into guys who he couldn't beat by playing long ball and it only happened when they played liverpool, everton and sparta prague.

Love his stuff. Was it in Inverting the Pyramid?

 

[Allezfan]

Love his stuff. Was it in Inverting the Pyramid?

Yep and he goes into it again in atonomy of england.