Moneyball. It is witchcraft.

[SerenityNigh]

I think the fans do. And a few coaches, but those are mostly your Allerdyce's that come in and keep you up and stabilize you - and frankly, that's a really efficient thing to do when you don't have a lot of talent.

But most clubs are run by people that recognize that counting stats are not the end all be all, and many factors influence performance. The one thing that blows my mind is how so many continue to believe managers should dictate the transfer policy. Being able to coach football does not necessarily make you a great scout (or great at identifying scouts) and vice versa. But rather than let people focus on their specialty, we should double up their work even when they may be terrible at one side or the other of it.

If we have to debate the potential merits of the Director of Football (how many clubs actually use one?), we're not yet past this mindset

 

[wm02]

Yep and he goes into it again in atonomy of england.

Thanks. Read that one too and for the life of me couldn't remember Reep's name

 

[abelard]

If we have to debate the potential merits of the Director of Football (how many clubs actually use one?), we're not yet past this mindset

I think all the clubs know this and have this sort of position, but most don't want to use the term publicly because it upsets supporters and undermines the manager. It has always been standard practice basically everywhere on the continent.

 

[RaleighBlue]

If we have to debate the potential merits of the Director of Football (how many clubs actually use one?), we're not yet past this mindset

Fair point.

It's truly mind blowing. As if failures like the Kopites means the system is broken rather than the personnel.

I think all the clubs know this and have this sort of position, but most don't want to use the term publicly because it upsets supporters and undermines the manager. It has always been standard practice basically everywhere on the continent.

Don't think we have one. I really think Martinez is doing that work...which is fine, he's good at that. But even if he's good at that, and good at managing, then one will negatively impacting his performance in the other.

 

[Allezfan]

I think all the clubs know this and have this sort of position, but most don't want to use the term publicly because it upsets supporters and undermines the manager. It has always been standard practice basically everywhere on the continent.

I mean Clough and Taylor is the model english example. Or hell shankly and paisley.

 

[abelard]

I mean Clough and Taylor is the model english example. Or hell shankly and paisley.

Right, and you have to delegate even more when you're scouting more than just the British Isles

 

[Black Belt Jones]

I like the idea of trying to apply the baseball WAR stat to football, although I doubt you really could. Wins above replacement - how many additional wins is this player giving the team above a hypothetical bog-standard replacement player?

It's relevant to strikers who bang in a respectable amount, but your footballing instinct tells you they're not offering real value, and they don't score the important goals. Like is Olivier Giroud a good player, or is he just a warm body wearing the Arsenal #9 shirt? Because scoring 15 goals a season (or whatever he nets) doesn't necessarily indicate quality in the context he's playing in.
The opposite sort of player would be a Tim Cahill-type - scored 7 goals in the season but every one was a game winner.

 

[SerenityNigh]

I really think Martinez is doing that work...which is fine, he's good at that. But even if he's good at that, and good at managing, then one will negatively impacting his performance in the other.

Wouldn't mind seeing Martinez offload some of the coaching duties...

 

[abelard]

I like the idea of trying to apply the baseball WAR stat to football, although I doubt you really could. Wins above replacement - how many additional wins is this player giving the team above a hypothetical bog-standard replacement player?

It's relevant to strikers who bang in a respectable amount, but your footballing instinct tells you they're not offering real value, and they don't score the important goals. Like is Olivier Giroud a good player, or is he just a warm body wearing the Arsenal #9 shirt? Because scoring 15 goals a season (or whatever he nets) doesn't necessarily indicate quality in the context he's playing in.
The opposite sort of player would be a Tim Cahill-type - scored 7 goals in the season but every one was a game winner.

I am sure there are legions of people around Europe claiming to have the answer for sale, but I doubt it can ever be as definitely quantified as baseball, or even American football where everything is still divided into discreet events. How would you mathematically adjust for respective league difficulties, to isolate Van Nistelrooy from the Alonso Alves and Altidores? I don't know the first thing about maths but I can't imagine football statistics could be as conclusive.

 

[SerenityNigh]

I like the idea of trying to apply the baseball WAR stat to football, although I doubt you really could. Wins above replacement - how many additional wins is this player giving the team above a hypothetical bog-standard replacement player?

It's relevant to strikers who bang in a respectable amount, but your footballing instinct tells you they're not offering real value, and they don't score the important goals. Like is Olivier Giroud a good player, or is he just a warm body wearing the Arsenal #9 shirt? Because scoring 15 goals a season (or whatever he nets) doesn't necessarily indicate quality in the context he's playing in.
The opposite sort of player would be a Tim Cahill-type - scored 7 goals in the season but every one was a game winner.

Would be impossible to do that, I'd guess, because unlike baseball, which is already a few hot dogs and jock straps from being a turn-based Magic competition, certain football players fit certain systems and could strike 15 in one but might be nearly useless in another. It's not impossible, but is much harder to find a baseball player that fits one style of play and not others.

 

[Ihaters]

Its Championship manager without the fun or nice GUI.

 

[Garrick]

It's a Baseball thing mate.

Basically a team (Oakland Athletics...but crap and poor like Everton) changed their entire approach to the game using stats rather than star players and the like and went on a massive like 18 game winning steak or something.

Then they went crap again.

There's a great movie with Brad Pitt all about it pal. Watch it. It's good

One thing that they don't really talk about in the movie but do in the book was that certain players based solely on their origin were undervalued compared to others.

At the time, most baseball GM's didn't care much for college players because they figured they had less time to mold their play so they would never be as good as a high school player who spent longer in the organization. Which is partially true, but it's also true that college players are less risky because there's a smaller gap to bridge from being a college starter to an MLB starter. And when you're a team with little to no free agent money, having above average players all around the park is better than gambling on high schooler with a small potential to be a star.

After the rest of the clubs picked up on Billy Beane's strategy, he then actually switched back to drafting mostly high school players because everybody moved away from them!

You can draw some parallels to that in footie. Like just purely by the stereotype, big 5 clubs wouldn't normally consider an Argentinian centerback, but Funes Mori, despite still being a little green, has slotted right in to the Prem. If he was Italian, his valuation would've been way higher, I reckon. The nationality game is the most obvious one, but also isn't a silver bullet because of work permitting issues. If you have to wait for somebody to become a national team regular before you can guarantee your efforts to sign him, chances are you're going to be too late to do anything anyway.

Would be impossible to do that, I'd guess, because unlike baseball, which is already a few hot dogs and jock straps from being a turn-based Magic competition, certain football players fit certain systems and could strike 15 in one but might be nearly useless in another. It's not impossible, but is much harder to find a baseball player that fits one style of play and not others.

It's possible. They're developing sabermetrics for basketball right now. Still very far off from baseball-level stats, but so is every other sport.

 

[chicoazul]

Four types of people care about moneyball and discuss it on forums:

1. Americans
2. Kopites
3. Crushingly dull virgins
4. Crushingly dull virgin kopites.

 

[ilikecheese]

Four types of people care about moneyball and discuss it on forums:

1. Americans
2. Kopites
3. Crushingly dull virgins
4. Crushingly dull virgin kopites.

Which one are you? I am #1.

 

[chicoazul]

Which one are you? I am #1.

None of them.