catcherintherye
Player Valuation: £80m
Ive no idea what the LOR funding schedule is though mate, though i suspect costs are rising and eventually the bottom line will be larger - personally i don't think we will be in the new ground for another two seasons - that's just my own take though.
There are a lot of ifs and buts. Currently all that is in place with MSP is that we are taking debt on from them, at this stage nothing more, nothing less. They have warrants on that debt - that they can turn the 130 mill of that debt into equity - shares in the club. Take a scenario though where we are hit by a points deduction, transfer ban or are relegated - they may decide not to activate those warrants and we just owe them £130 mill.
But say they do exercise the warrants. Moshiri has two choices, he can maintain his shareholding and borrow on the market through the banks, who will charge a high rate prob a bit over 10% at current rates, he might eat that for a couple of years and then look to restructure. Elsewise and particularly if he wants out (which i suspect he does), he may look at MSP to raise more capital beyond the £130 mill. So if 130 mill is 25% of the business in shares - then another 200 mill will give them a majority shareholding - that how they gain control. So whatever schedule and presuming the above the decisions go that way, that's how MSP become majority shareholders.
All, some of and none of the above may happen:
If we are relegated MSP may never activate their warrants and may just want their £130 mill back.
Say if we qualify for the CL - Moshiri may not want to sell anymore of his stake or Moshiri may decide to go to the market for the other 200 mill - though i think he wants out.
The timeline for the above to happen will come don to how we are doing on the pitch and the timeline of the stadium and the other external matters like the PL investigation and other bits and pieces.
How the above impacts is, Moshiri bought his shares at a certain price, the price of the shares now are a lot lower - partly due to our level of debt, mismanagement, need for investment in on the field and capital investment and partly because we don't have assets on the fielded anymore. So MSP will be paying him less then he paid for Everton. That doesn't suit Bill who hold a stake and doesn't suit Moshiri - as both will want the maximum return on what they feel their shares are worth. Therefore with both now on the board - will they make decisions with the clubs welfare at heart or will they try and maximise their investment for their own financial interests - that's the natural alliance between Bill and Moshiri - thats why Bill is still on the board. They will want to sell high and MSP will want to buy low - that will be dynamic at board level - if MSP are to progress to majority control. So currently we have and probably will have a board with an agenda and competing needs. Things might get worse before they get better - despite "change"
We absolutely have to have a strong window, when review the above so much of it rides on the club being in the PL and we were a kick of a ball away from that not being the case - the stakes are very, very, very high mate.
This is a good summary.
My only contention is that MSP have allegedly got deals in principle to buy further shares at the price mentioned, so it sort of makes sense for them for the club to do well as it makes them cheaper.
It's also worth saying, if the club is relegated its ability to make the payment on that debt is seriously brought into question. So there is clear incentive for the club not to go down.
