Newcastle Utd (and Viz)

[MikeH72]

I might be reading it wrong, but it reads to me like you think that the Saudis are broke so can't pump money in, & the Reubens won't put any money in. We'd be in exactly the same position as we are under Ashley. Seems bizarre to me that the takeover would happen at all under those circumstances... why would the three groups be remotely interested in buying a football club if they've no interest in doing anything with it?

Isn’t that exactly what Ashley did?

 

[catcherintherye]

Well that's weird. I've seen it with Sunderland fans, where they claim special relationships with clubs as diverse as Norwich, Feyenoord, Benfica (I think?) and yourselves.

The Sunderland thing is an interesting one. Obviously you have the link of certain shared players (Bracewell, Richardson & Reid). I think more than that though a lot of fans can see Sunderland is a big club that has just been badly run over a period of time and deserve better. I appreciate as your local rivals there will be no sympathy and nor should there be, but they are a good club.

I think Liverpool fans seem to make a lot of links up for themselves. They sort of deify Benitez too, to the point he gets no criticism from the 2009 episode. It's an easy conspiracy to blame their owners for their overspend, and Benitez knew how to play to the gallery effectively.

They also have this tendency to claim being close to other people's teams. I mean they claim to have a link with both sides of the old firm derby (when in reality Rangers are probably the only club they have any real connection with). My experience is, most people find their general arrogance and entitlement quite insufferable.

There's a hypocrisy to most of it too. I remember for a time they used to be all over City. That changed very quickly, to re-enacting the behaviour of a class snitch trying to get someone in trouble for little more than an accountancy error. So if there are some Geordies who like them, I'd certainly share with them the reality that if you ever threaten their entitlement they will drop you all very quickly.

 

[MikeH72]

The Sunderland thing is an interesting one. Obviously you have the link of certain shared players (Bracewell, Richardson & Reid). I think more than that though a lot of fans can see Sunderland is a big club that has just been badly run over a period of time and deserve better. I appreciate as your local rivals there will be no sympathy and nor should there be, but they are a good club.

I think Liverpool fans seem to make a lot of links up for themselves. They sort of deify Benitez too, to the point he gets no criticism from the 2009 episode. It's an easy conspiracy to blame their owners for their overspend, and Benitez knew how to play to the gallery effectively.

They also have this tendency to claim being close to other people's teams. I mean they claim to have a link with both sides of the old firm derby (when in reality Rangers are probably the only club they have any real connection with). My experience is, most people find their general arrogance and entitlement quite insufferable.

There's a hypocrisy to most of it too. I remember for a time they used to be all over City. That changed very quickly, to re-enacting the behaviour of a class snitch trying to get someone in trouble for little more than an accountancy error. So if there are some Geordies who like them, I'd certainly share with them the reality that if you ever threaten their entitlement they will drop you all very quickly.

Is that when he replaced their best player Xabi Alonso with Aquilani and bought Robbie Keane and Glen Johnson for £20m each? Then cried that the owners never backed him and had everyone believe him? Big fat fraud.

 

[The Fish]

The same reason Stan Kroenke is at Arsenal, it is a nice little earner and an asset that can be used to be leveraged in other businesses activities.

Not saying that is the case with these guys but that is why they might come and tread water.

If it goes the other way and they do spend money it will still take ages to get somewhere while FFP is still in place, look how we had to give everyone 100k wages p/w to get anyone with a name. Then you struggle to get rid of them thereafter!

Get what you're seeing, but I can't see the Saudis wanting to buy a club with no ambition to see it compete at some point in the future (we're nowhere close, almost playing a different sport at the minute).

You're right about FFP, and any Geordie expecting to see hundreds of millions dropped every window needs to grow up. We could cover big transfer fees, but the wages will prove a sticking point until our income increases.

 

[catcherintherye]

I might be reading it wrong, but it reads to me like you think that the Saudis are broke so can't pump money in, & the Reubens won't put any money in. We'd be in exactly the same position as we are under Ashley. Seems bizarre to me that the takeover would happen at all under those circumstances... why would the three groups be remotely interested in buying a football club if they've no interest in doing anything with it?

Thats not quite true. I am being quite cynical and appreciate that, but it's just a counter balance. In fairness I think most of what you say is very reasonable and a bit of a contrast to some of the supporters who think Dybala, Coutinho, Koulibaly etc are all rocking up at Newcastle this summer. I mean it could happen, but on the balance of probabilities it's unlikely.

I certainly don't think the Saudi's are so broke they won't pump money in. Even if oil continues to collapse, they will still have a lot of money. I suppose you could sum my argument up as saying if the oil debacle continues, I think it will be quite serious for Saudi as a country, and it may lead them to re-evaluate their priorities and perhaps belt tighten.

If you put a gun to my head I'm not sure it makes so much difference to Newcastle, because I don't think they were ever going to be pumping that much money in initially anyway. I think there will be some measured investment, under the remit of Staveley and sense that will continue. As you say it will be a lot more than Ashley did, and Staveley will likely be a far more professional operator who is in keeping with the values you want as a club.

Re the Reuben brothers, I don't see them putting any money in, as minorities shareholders. They are shrewd operators, so unless they got offered a greater share of the company, there's very little to be gained from them putting money in. I would be quite confident on that. Minority shareholders rarely pump money in, and a huge amount of their liquidity is tied up into assets and buildings. I suspect they are there to help with re-build projects (perhaps the training ground?). Do they not own a few buildings in Newcastle?

I think you will be better off than under Ashley in anything other than a nightmare scenario. It's strange though, I mean we had Kenwright for years, who in lots of ways was similar to Ashley in that little investment came (but Kenwright had far better PR) and with lots of money hasn't really come enormous improvement. It does have to be spent well. Staveley is no mug and well connected, so hopefully for Newcastle she will put the right pieces in the background to allow that to occur.

As for what they get, they probably get different things. The Reuben brothers it's probably an extension of their property empire and the potential for more contracts. Staveley has a consortium potentially ready to run a football club, and the Saudi's get another asset on the balance sheet, potentially run by someone they trust and feel is competent (who may indeed make them some money).

They all get different things, but it's a win or all of them. They also probably get enormous sympathy from an area in the country if the geo-politics start to turn. I mean if they turn you into title winners, how many geordies are joining a war effort against Saudi Arabia if it comes to that!? (Said slightly in gest).

 

[The Fish]

Isn’t that exactly what Ashley did?

He wanted to buy a club and have a bit of fun, then flip it. When that didn't happen he decided instead to use us as a vehicle to promote his actual passion. There's a good piece in The Athletic about Ashley with testimony from people who know him or have dealt with him. Ashley actually had meetings with Sheikh Mansour prior to their Man City takeover, but in a move that will come as no shock to anybody, he turned up dishevelled, was rude and they sacked him off. The conventional wisdom is Staveley is acting as a buffer between him and the Saudis so his behaviour doesn't knacker another deal.

 

[Chris O'Connor]

Well to a degree yes, though I doubt they have any serious interest in putting any money into the club.

There's an article on Newcastle by Jason Burt in this morning's papers (Telegraph) on how Newcastle are going to be run following completion of the takeover, (most of it in the public domain and all papers have indicated along the same lines).

Anyway it pretty much confirms what you've suspected all along and the 50 year old governor of the Saudi's PIF sovereign wealth fund, Al-Rumayyan is to stick to his day job of running such a huge financial organisation with assets of £330 billion.

It's important to get a bit of a perspective on this £300 million Newcastle takeover, although big news in football here, and a strategic and high profile investment for the Saudi's, it's a fairly insignificant piece of jigsaw for PIF in terms of monetary value, PIF spent £3.5 billion (not million) on their stake in Uber and their £330 billion in assets really does show just how small in monetary terms this is (other than strategically high profile that is).

Al-Rumayyan is therefore only to be non-executive chairman leaving him free for the day to day running of the PIF empire. Not least with the oil price so much in the news recently and given he also sits on the board of Saudi Aramco, the state oil business.

As you thought Stavely's PCP capital partners, which she runs with her husband, will run the club on a day to day basis acting like an asset manager for the group. Jamie Reuben will also have a place on the board.

There is a structured approach with apparently a detailed plan in place to recruit an experienced team to update all aspects, they'll first need to get a feel of how the club runs so managing director Lee Charnley will be retained for the handover. Eventually a new chief exec is expected to be headhunted.

(The article is behind a paywall but the pertinent points included)

 

[catcherintherye]

Is that when he replaced their best player Xabi Alonso with Aquilani and bought Robbie Keane and Glen Johnson for £20m each? Then cried that the owners never backed him and had everyone believe him? Big fat fraud.

Yes. Essentially their owners were hit it the 2008 crash. Most American owners tend to get exposed during crashes, as most have wealth tied up in the stock exchange, so are disproportionately hit. They lose access to liquidity and borrowing. He had also ran up a massive debt with his player purchases, and the tap was turned off. At that point he became quite divisive and they ended up finishing 8th or 9th from memory.

He's not much of a team player and must be a bit of a nightmare for owners. It's not bias speaking either. You contrast him to someone like Klopp, who has a far more balanced view and it's chalk and cheese.

 

[DanB90]

What’s this about the Saudi people having concerns about their country aligning themselves with a club as dispicable as Newcastle?

 

[The Fish]

The Sunderland thing is an interesting one. Obviously you have the link of certain shared players (Bracewell, Richardson & Reid). I think more than that though a lot of fans can see Sunderland is a big club that has just been badly run over a period of time and deserve better. I appreciate as your local rivals there will be no sympathy and nor should there be, but they are a good club.

I think Liverpool fans seem to make a lot of links up for themselves. They sort of deify Benitez too, to the point he gets no criticism from the 2009 episode. It's an easy conspiracy to blame their owners for their overspend, and Benitez knew how to play to the gallery effectively.

They also have this tendency to claim being close to other people's teams. I mean they claim to have a link with both sides of the old firm derby (when in reality Rangers are probably the only club they have any real connection with). My experience is, most people find their general arrogance and entitlement quite insufferable.

There's a hypocrisy to most of it too. I remember for a time they used to be all over City. That changed very quickly, to re-enacting the behaviour of a class snitch trying to get someone in trouble for little more than an accountancy error. So if there are some Geordies who like them, I'd certainly share with them the reality that if you ever threaten their entitlement they will drop you all very quickly.

Not a lot of sympathy, no. Personally, I think it's a disgrace that they've tumbled as far as they have. I think the club has been mismanaged for decades, barley surviving in the Premier League for most of their last stay papered over huge cracks, their recruitment has been scattergun and hugely costly. It'd be good for the region if they were a Premier League team, but I can't see that happening for a while yet.

Benitez plays the crowd well, no doubt, but some of the criticism he gets is a bit of a stretch. You don't win the trophies he has purely by chance. He's clearly a good manager. But I get that he'll be villified by fans of Everton and, to a lesser degree, Sunderland.

Liverpool hated us back in the Keegan era and a little under Robson, but like you say, as our "success" dwindled, so did their ire. We saw a couple of Liverpool fans pop on the Newcastle boards to wish Rafael (and us) well when he stayed, but they weren't warmly rec'd.

Personally, I can't abide their entitlement, the conspiracies they concoct and the constant presence in the media of ex-players telling us all how special a club they are, how amazing the Anfield atmosphere is and how everybody wants them to do well.

 

[catcherintherye]

He wanted to buy a club and have a bit of fun, then flip it. When that didn't happen he decided instead to use us as a vehicle to promote his actual passion. There's a good piece in The Athletic about Ashley with testimony from people who know him or have dealt with him. Ashley actually had meetings with Sheikh Mansour prior to their Man City takeover, but in a move that will come as no shock to anybody, he turned up dishevelled, was rude and they sacked him off. The conventional wisdom is Staveley is acting as a buffer between him and the Saudis so his behaviour doesn't knacker another deal.

I saw the piece in the Athletic. They met Kenwright as well. I don't put too much truck in people's personal appearance etc. I do find it quite doubtful, if he felt they were serious he would do that, as it would cost him hundreds of millions and he's not an idiot. It makes a good story though.

 

[The Fish]

Thats not quite true. I am being quite cynical and appreciate that, but it's just a counter balance. In fairness I think most of what you say is very reasonable and a bit of a contrast to some of the supporters who think Dybala, Coutinho, Koulibaly etc are all rocking up at Newcastle this summer. I mean it could happen, but on the balance of probabilities it's unlikely.

I certainly don't think the Saudi's are so broke they won't pump money in. Even if oil continues to collapse, they will still have a lot of money. I suppose you could sum my argument up as saying if the oil debacle continues, I think it will be quite serious for Saudi as a country, and it may lead them to re-evaluate their priorities and perhaps belt tighten.

If you put a gun to my head I'm not sure it makes so much difference to Newcastle, because I don't think they were ever going to be pumping that much money in initially anyway. I think there will be some measured investment, under the remit of Staveley and sense that will continue. As you say it will be a lot more than Ashley did, and Staveley will likely be a far more professional operator who is in keeping with the values you want as a club.

Re the Reuben brothers, I don't see them putting any money in, as minorities shareholders. They are shrewd operators, so unless they got offered a greater share of the company, there's very little to be gained from them putting money in. I would be quite confident on that. Minority shareholders rarely pump money in, and a huge amount of their liquidity is tied up into assets and buildings. I suspect they are there to help with re-build projects (perhaps the training ground?). Do they not own a few buildings in Newcastle?

I think you will be better off than under Ashley in anything other than a nightmare scenario. It's strange though, I mean we had Kenwright for years, who in lots of ways was similar to Ashley in that little investment came (but Kenwright had far better PR) and with lots of money hasn't really come enormous improvement. It does have to be spent well. Staveley is no mug and well connected, so hopefully for Newcastle she will put the right pieces in the background to allow that to occur.

As for what they get, they probably get different things. The Reuben brothers it's probably an extension of their property empire and the potential for more contracts. Staveley has a consortium potentially ready to run a football club, and the Saudi's get another asset on the balance sheet, potentially run by someone they trust and feel is competent (who may indeed make them some money).

They all get different things, but it's a win or all of them. They also probably get enormous sympathy from an area in the country if the geo-politics start to turn. I mean if they turn you into title winners, how many geordies are joining a war effort against Saudi Arabia if it comes to that!? (Said slightly in gest).

Yeah I'd agree with all that.

Reubens do own a bit of property in Newcastle (including the racecourse) and London and I'd hope the club taps into that experience to redevelop the area around the stadium, improve the facilities etc. Makes sense for staveley to manage the day to day, we're a tiny minnow in the Saudi ocean, MBS may fancy a trip to Wembley to watch us in a League Cup final or something, but I doubt he's going to have much interest in a midweek November game against Brighton.

 

[The Fish]

I saw the piece in the Athletic. They met Kenwright as well. I don't put too much truck in people's personal appearance etc. I do find it quite doubtful, if he felt they were serious he would do that, as it would cost him hundreds of millions and he's not an idiot. It makes a good story though.

He might be shrewd in buying brands and companies in distress, but the bloke is useless at football. Joe Kinnear. Twice. I've no doubt that he messed up the opportunity to sell us to Sheikh Mansour. No doubt at all.

 

[catcherintherye]

Yeah I'd agree with all that.

Reubens do own a bit of property in Newcastle (including the racecourse) and London and I'd hope the club taps into that experience to redevelop the area around the stadium, improve the facilities etc. Makes sense for staveley to manage the day to day, we're a tiny minnow in the Saudi ocean, MBS may fancy a trip to Wembley to watch us in a League Cup final or something, but I doubt he's going to have much interest in a midweek November game against Brighton.

Essentially yes. Thats just my opinion though, and I tend to go on the balance of probabilities. Maybe he comes in and runs the club himself and sits at most games as you see with Chelsea/City.

I wouldn't be too disappointed if the option outlined above came true though. It will be less glamorous and exciting, probably take a bit longer but also less risky. If the Saudi's are all in on it, they will probably come into an area they know nothing about, lash money about and certainly initially it will probably not work. There is a chance they lose interest.

If you have serious business people, essentially utilising their liquidity in a more measured way when needed, but also demonstrating to them that it's not a black hole but a profitable venture it has far more longevity and less risk attached.

 

[catcherintherye]

He might be shrewd in buying brands and companies in distress, but the bloke is useless at football. Joe Kinnear. Twice. I've no doubt that he messed up the opportunity to sell us to Sheikh Mansour. No doubt at all.

Lots of people say that about Kenwright too. I mean they couldn't buy everyone!

My feeling with these things tends to be they go with who they want to go with. It's even a good decision for them either way.

I mean Shinawatra was hardly known a a pleasant bloke.