Next manager discussion (poll reset 21/05/2016)

[orly]

Hahaha. He can't help himself.

It's genuinely amazing mate, complete misunderstanding

 

[Thomasc]

I'm hurting inside, but if I don't keep my mood light on here I'll end up going mental. My missus isn't talking to me after my reaction at the final whistle.

Here, this will cheer you up x

 

[Bungle]

Here, this will cheer you up x

Sorry mate, that came across as I meant it as a negative thing, it certainly isn't.

 

[Thomasc]

Sorry mate, that came across as I meant it as a negative thing, it certainly isn't.

ha lol

well in that case

 

[Ashtonian]

NO IT WOULDN'T

THEY WOULD SUSPEND THE MARKET BEFORE EVEN NEEDING TO ADJUST IT AS THERE IS NO LIQUIDITY IN IT FOR THEM TO TRADE DOWNWARDS

THE NEW PRICE WOULD THEN COME IN ONCE THE MARKET HAD BEEN ADJUSTED AFTER SUSPENSION

PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE STOP

Quite simply it's because that's when there is the most betting activity - the majority of the activity, actually.

Odds start at what the bookmakers believe is an accurate representation of the outcomes. These odds then drift or come in depending on what the punters are backing. For example, a team might be 10/1 to win when betting opens. If millions are bet on that then the odds will shorten. It's not unheard of for odds to change massively in the time leading up to an event.

http://sports.stackexchange.com/que...rs-tend-to-change-rapidly-during-the-last-few

So yeah, pretty much what i said

 

[Bungle]

http://Source

So yeah, pretty much what i said

The link to your source is broken.

 

[Ashtonian]

The link to your source is broken.

fixed

 

[Bungle]

fixed

Oh christ, animals humping, really Christopher?

 

[Ashtonian]

Oh christ, animals humping, really Christopher?

lol did you click on one of your links instead?

 

[Bungle]

lol did you click on one of your links instead?

I'd like to claim I'm not that stupid...

 

[catcherintherye]

Listen, if we all went out today and bet 50 quid on, for arguments sake, jurgen klopp to take over this summer, so say 500 of us or more depending on numbers all put a decent bet on him coming here. The odds would drop dramatically because the bookies then think something is happening and therefore drop odds before anyone else can profit from it.

Simple rule, the odds are not chance of it happening until the odds stop making you money.

A good post. All the odds reflect are for the most part where the money is going. Sometimes it is a telling sign, as why would lots of people be putting money on something? Sometimes it's indicative of knowledge but sometimes it is a punt.

The betting book is becoming more serious now. 6 months ago people like Tony Hibbert or Steven Gerrard were 30-1 or whatever. It is not starting to resemble how the race looks, and I've seen De Boer is just been given a price (before this weekend he wasn't quoted).

When we appointed Martinez we went through a variety of favourites. Stubbs, Neville, Weir, Rangnick etc.

 

[catcherintherye]

Apart from Fergie and now perhaps Simeone I'm struggling to find examples for this long term success you supposedly get if you stick with the same manager for the long term. Wenger and Moyes were arguably most successful (relatively) at the beginning of their tenures. So I never get this criticism towards Mourinho of him being short term. Guardiola is short term. So are most of the top managers now. Klopp eventually ran out of ideas at Dortmund.

Well you kind of defeat your own argument there. Fergusan is arguably the most successful manager ever and Simeone might be the most overachieving manager in the world.

Generally time is a positive thing in any role. Clubs who routinely sack managers tend to do worse. It shouldn't be the be all and end all but I don't think if we started sacking managers constantly like the 90's it wouldn't have a detrimental affect.

 

[orly]

http://sports.stackexchange.com/que...rs-tend-to-change-rapidly-during-the-last-few

So yeah, pretty much what i said

You genuinely have absolutely no clue what you are talking about.

Why do odds offered by the bookmakers tend to change rapidly during the last few minutes before the start of the game?

TOTALLY DIFFERENT TYPE OF MARKET TO A NEXT MANAGER ONE

There is probably, pre-match in the Premier League, £10m+ matched across the market in the outright win.

9 hours before the match has even started.

Look at the liquidity there.


Now look at this

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/everton/next-permanent-manager

Manuel Pelligrini odds and how they've changed in the last 11 days

THEY ARE A TOTAL MESS AS THERE IS NO REAL MARKET AND BOOKMAKERS ARE NOT GOING TO LEAVE THEMSELVES EXPOSED TO INSIDE INFORMATION. How could they trade out or close a position with no market liquidity? They couldn't. Would be amazed if you can strike a bet even near a grand anywhere for this - and yet you could you could be £75k of the that Spurs market there and it wouldn't even cover a single tick order.

Premier League match where you are looking at £150k a tick (point move on the Exchange)? Easy peasy.

Just saying the odds being the lowest doesn't mean the chances are good, as they are just the most fancied bets. So as a reaction to that, odds drop so you can't make money off it.

So odds aren't built on simulated probability. Ok mate. When you wrote that, you should have stopped.

Bookies always win, unless Vardy wants to have a party like.

Again, so unbelievably wrong it's untrue. Anyone but Aguero / Kane winning this market would have every major bookmaker windmilling from here to Mauritius on their holidays. Leicester winning the league is the greatest result ever for them.

There are opinions, and there inaccuracies. Please, please stop.

 

[Ashtonian]

You genuinely have absolutely no clue what you are talking about.

Why do odds offered by the bookmakers tend to change rapidly during the last few minutes before the start of the game?

TOTALLY DIFFERENT TYPE OF MARKET TO A NEXT MANAGER ONE

There is probably, pre-match in the Premier League, £10m+ matched across the market in the outright win.

View attachment 21671

9 hours before the match has even started.

View attachment 21672

Look at the liquidity there.


Now look at this

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/everton/next-permanent-manager


View attachment 21674
Manuel Pelligrini odds and how they've changed in the last 11 days

THEY ARE A TOTAL MESS AS THERE IS NO REAL MARKET AND BOOKMAKERS ARE NOT GOING TO LEAVE THEMSELVES EXPOSED TO INSIDE INFORMATION. How could they trade out or close a position with no market liquidity? They couldn't. Would be amazed if you can strike a bet even near a grand anywhere for this - and yet you could you could be £75k of the that Spurs market there and it wouldn't even cover a single tick order.

Premier League match where you are looking at £150k a tick (point move on the Exchange)? Easy peasy.



So odds aren't built on simulated probability. Ok mate. When you wrote that, you should have stopped.



Again, so unbelievably wrong it's untrue. Anyone but Aguero / Kane winning this market would have every major bookmaker windmilling from here to Mauritius on their holidays. Leicester winning the league is the greatest result ever for them.

There are opinions, and there inaccuracies. Please, please stop.

No idea what any of that means.

but the odds can reflect the direction of the money, not necessarily the odds of it happening. Lower odds in a win lose situation sure but in a manager market, odds can drop simply because of higher bets being placed as happened before.

 

[orly]

No idea what any of that means.

And maybe that's the point mate