toffee matt
Player Valuation: £60m
You can see from this why Swansea and Norwich are able to spend big this summer. Also the lack of champions league is hitting the kopites hard
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You can see from this why Swansea and Norwich are able to spend big this summer. Also the lack of champions league is hitting the kopites hard
I'll gladly do that. I have enough friends to put together £1MM if you can help me with the other £124MM. Or, since Bill doesn't want to sell and only wants investment, I suppose we only need to gather about £40MM total for a minority stake in the club.
This is my favorite thing red: £(40.5) profit last year and £(87.2) debt
It's the fact that many of their player are probably still on Championship wages, hence why their % of turnover paid in wages are so low. As soon as they get a few more high earners in combined with their own players wanting wage raises when their contracts come up it'll suddenly stifle their ability to make these kind of £10-15m purchases imo
and they still spend millions and millions and millions more than us.
Chang Elephant
Forum God
Liverpool City Council, North West Development Agency, with various UK & EU grants tried to build us a stadium at the Kings Dock, but Bill was a twa/.
njligernj
Player Valuation: £15m
Yes I know. That is precisely why I said 5 years would cost us around 50m. Not sure how that's wrong or why you think 50m less in revenue would not cause us massive issues.
First off it's cute you think the 25m is unaccounted for.
I've heard people use this line of logic before and frankly it makes no sense at all.
1) We lost 9m last accounts. I know we might have some lower wages (now ... as in this precise moment ... but have we stopped buying players and/or offering new contracts to current players?). People love subtracting Moyes, Neville and Heits (who hasn't even left yet) and don't love adding in new contracts or possible better deals (Baines hopefully). There is no guarantee we won't have increased cost moving forward (although I'll grant it's unlikely). Regardless, even if cost stays steady it becomes 16m instead of 25m because the club wants to break-even not lose 9m.
2) Everyone gets 25m. That's the new normal. That new 25m doesn't make up for 25m we might lose elsewhere because every other team is using their 25m + their existing revenue to offer buying prices and wages. If our revenue drops by 10m a year while everyone else stays about the same it will cause us massive problems. To say we now don't need 50m from league finishes is mind-boggling logic.
Every team in the league has 25m extra p/a. If we fall to 16th and have 30m less income (for the 3 years you quoted) to say that would not make "a jot of difference" is just staggering. I really can't wrap my head around where you are coming from there mate.
Foot Long Hot Dog
Player Valuation: A packet of pork scratchings
I explained why it would not cause us 'massive issues', that being that this season our revenue increases by almost 1/3rd overnight! I was replying to your statement "To have a year in the bottom half would be a huge problem; two-three years and we're likely back to where we were pre-Moyes", which is absolute pony imo, as it totally ignores the revenue increase. Of course you wouldn't choose to reduce your revenue by £10m every year, but it would be negated by the £25m increase.
Firstly, if someone has the ability to patronise me on my knowledge in this area, it's certainly not you mate. It's not a 'cute' idea, it's a simple fact. There has been no increase in the cost base of the business & there's no funding secured on this revenue increase. It is therefore currently unaccounted for incremental revenue.
Your assumption that the £9m loss from last year is a 'given' moving forwards is playground accounting. The £9m loss was delivered by a combination of a drop in revenues - caused by a drop in attendances & much fewer appearances on TV & an increase in the wage bill. To assume that £9m loss, will automatically replicate in the next set of accounts, is a completely inaccurate assumption. Therefore your "£25m becomes £16m" is baseless.
As for "everyone gets £25m", yes they do & costs will inevitably rise off the back of that - primarily wages, BUT, the PL have put in a caveat that clubs can only increase their wage bills by £4m next year, off the back of the TV revenue increase. Ultimately every club has to manage their own cost base & only spend in the market what they can afford.
So in conclusion, whilst a rapidly declining & consistent poor league placing, wouldn't be something we would obviously financially choose, to say that it would lead to a doomsday scenario is way wide of the mark.
I think the next years set of accounts will be interesting to say the least, they should show some improvement on the current set. We have been on TV more, attendences have been better. Plus we should show a decrease in player wages, and the commercial deals from Stub hub and Dafabet will have increased the commercial income a bit.
We will wait and see though.
We will wait and see though.
Re-branding costs: £10 million.
Doubt it.
Neville, Hitzlsperger and Mucha out;
Kone, Alcaraz, Robles, Deulefeu in;
Annual/contractual pay rises for existing squad;
Without even discussing the possibility of an improved deal for Baines and/or Felli, and possibly Mirallas and Coleman if they continue performing at their current high levels, it's safe to say the wages will not go down.
The best we can hope for is that the squad increases in size but less of the mega-high earners remain - this is why many are keen to shift Heitinga. If we can build a bit of depth whilst getting the AVERAGE wage down, that would be amazing, but the total wage bill won't be going anywhere other than up.
njligernj
Player Valuation: £15m
I disagree for reasons previously stated. We'll leave this part there. No point going in circles.
I am assuming something about the future and your crystal ball is no more reliable than mine. Why is it perfectly reasonable to assume it will not be replicated? In a league which has seen pretty much nothing but constant cost increases year over year for decades? The new rules might slow down growth but there will still be growth.
Precisely as baseless as everything you are saying.
As I'm sure you know since you are the expert I believe the rule on wage bills only applies to teams with 50m or so (maybe 52m?) in wages. So we can only increase by 4m but teams (such as Championship teams from last year) can increase all they want up to that level. So maybe 5-6 teams in the Prem can increase their wage bill more than that. That could be a big deal. It reduces our advantage over such teams and constricts a fairly tight and competitive league even more. Wages have been a fairly good advantage for us in the past over the bottom half of the table -- that advantage could be disappearing. So ... once again ... every penny will count in the future even including the precious 25m.
We have to maintain our gap over those teams or find efficiencies elsewhere.
Also I have seen a lot of salary caps and restrictions installed in a lot of pro sports over the years and "spending in the market what they can afford" is not a common side-effect. There are always loopholes and teams always spend more than they can afford. Even in leagues with FAR more restrictive salary caps than the Prem they find a way to spend way more than they can afford. They have employees whose sole duty is circumventing the rules and finding ways to spend more money and structure contracts in ways that are borderline cheating ... that will happen here soon enough. The Prem is not unique -- the same stuff will happen which happens in other sports. It might mean bigger signing bonuses, back-loaded contracts or new stuff which fits these specific rules. They will find a way to work around it as they have in all the other sports.
There is also a question about if it could sustain a court challenge if someone wanted to push the issue but that's for another day.
We went two years without buying a single player. You have a lot of faith in this board. I do not. This 25m is not being added onto a team in a good financial position. It is taking a team in a bad financial position and putting them perhaps back to "decent." That assumes costs stay level (which they won't). You are making a lot of assumptions about what this board will do with the added 25m and those assumptions (based on the history of this board) are "baseless."
njligernj
Player Valuation: £15m
Agreed. Great post. Betting against the wage bill going up is massively optimistic.
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