Patience for a 2.5 season strategy?

[magicjuan]

If a progressive manager tries to pick up this squad they'll be gone faster than usual. The fanbase are speaking, crying about relegation so in will come another firefighter, exactly how we ended up with Allardyce. BFS was a manifestation of us and he was removed because of us but remember it's all the owners fault why years down the line the club is a basketcase.

I can trace all that back to the world's greatest living evertonian and his 2 stadium balls ups. His legacy will always be a divided fanbase. Always.

 

[barneygumble]

Guess the question is, if we’re having a “Young, Progressive Manager”, who’s füllt those things and wants to actually come to Everton?

 

[roy vernon]

I would be happy for us to develop the squad on an ongoing basis, gradually getting the aging injury prone high earners off the books and replacing them with younger players, who are still interested in improving AND who will have a sell on value.

Benitez is certainly not suited to a project like this and neither, in the current set up, is Brands. Benitez definitely needs to go and Moshiri needs to make a big DOF decision. Either he sacks Brands and appoints a DOF he trusts, then, he must let him do his job without interference, or, he must decide Brands is the man for the job and give him full control over all football matters.

In an ideal world Brands and Benitez go very soon, we appoint an interim manager, not Allardyce, to get us to the end of the season, we should then appoint the new DOF or empower Brands and tell them to identify the coaches they see as people who they feel can implement the DOF’s vision for the club’s future. It would then be the board’s job to agree terms with one of these candidates and the rebuilding job should begin in earnest next summer.

There will, of course, be pain to be endured by going down this route, our best players will have to be sold to finance it, but, without these measures being implemented there is a very real danger that we may slide away into obscurity. The club cannot continue to be run like this. Also, Billy Liar needs to step down as chairman and cease to have any imput into the running of the club.

 

[Lowste]

We need a plan or a strategy in moving forward
Throwing money at it, has failed miserably
Recruiting young progressive managers has backfired on on us
Getting experienced managers, has failed as we just didn’t like them

If we carry on as we are we are heading towards a disaster

What ever we do as a club, it needs to be communicated to the supporters and basically telling them the aims
If supporters don’t like it, but at least we all know what the plan/strategy is

As at the moment I am clueless

 

[Moonlight dribbler]

Whatever Benitez said in his interview has either not worked, or he hasn't had enough time to plan and carry it out or Moshiri was lying about what resources were available.

It will become obvious soon. Moshiri will sack him or Benitez will get more time or Benitez will begin his whinging stage.

I am happy to wait and see.

 

[ClausThomsen]

The stadium will be ready in 2024 and I think we'll see a second wave of investment at that time.

Over this and the next two seasons (22/23 and 23/24) we rebuild the squad at close to zero net spend. Only spending what we bring in and taking the FFP / Profit and sustainability back to around square one.

Clearly this wont all happen at once so as players are sold / phased out we target replacements who are u23 or pre-contract agreements.

A 'realistic slow sustainable' position target might be:

21/22 = 12th-15th
22/23 = 9th-12th
23/24 = 7th-9th

It's a nice idea but keeping hold of the better squad players would be very difficult. The likes of Richarlison, DCL and arguably Pickford probably aren't overjoyed to see their late 20's without European football and realistic shouts at silverware.

And if the transfer targets are close to net zero spend and U23 players then the 'realistic slow sustainable' position targets are near impossible. I struggle to recall any side in PL history who have observed such a transfer policy and not been relegated. Bournemouth are probably the closest in recent years but people tend to concentrate on the Solanke (currently doing well) and Ibe deals as them being bad in the market when the truth is they've been incredibly successful when it comes to buying young, developing and turning profits.

But it's incredibly difficult to do over a sustained period as last season showed. The best young players can go from England internationals to the wilderness l of being not good enough for Aston Villa - See R.Barkley.

Even if more experienced and suitable players are brought in on pre-contract / Bosman's they still cost a huge amount of money as that 'saved' transfer fee inevitably turns into inflated wages and agent / signing on fees if a player is a truly attractive proposition. So even that is near impossible if you're aiming for close to net-zero spend.

Slow and sustainable may well be possible but a near net-zero with such limited transfer parameters and consistent albeit slow progress is near impossible. Moyes first few years of yo-yo inconsistency is probably a more realistic projection of positions.

 

[Moderatelywarmwater]

What strategy?

there’s been strategies before and they were abandoned at the first sign of choppy waters.

so what’s the point?

 

[Zatara]

It's a nice idea but keeping hold of the better squad players would be very difficult. The likes of Richarlison, DCL and arguably Pickford probably aren't overjoyed to see their late 20's without European football and realistic shouts at silverware.

And if the transfer targets are close to net zero spend and U23 players then the 'realistic slow sustainable' position targets are near impossible. I struggle to recall any side in PL history who have observed such a transfer policy and not been relegated. Bournemouth are probably the closest in recent years but people tend to concentrate on the Solanke (currently doing well) and Ibe deals as them being bad in the market when the truth is they've been incredibly successful when it comes to buying young, developing and turning profits.

But it's incredibly difficult to do over a sustained period as last season showed. The best young players can go from England internationals to the wilderness l of being not good enough for Aston Villa - See R.Barkley.

Even if more experienced and suitable players are brought in on pre-contract / Bosman's they still cost a huge amount of money as that 'saved' transfer fee inevitably turns into inflated wages and agent / signing on fees if a player is a truly attractive proposition. So even that is near impossible if you're aiming for close to net-zero spend.

Slow and sustainable may well be possible but a near net-zero with such limited transfer parameters and consistent albeit slow progress is near impossible. Moyes first few years of yo-yo inconsistency is probably a more realistic projection of positions.

To address each point:

1: I did state that if players wouldnt extend then they would be sold. So lets say Mina + Richarlison were sold in the summer.

Thats £100mil + circa £200k wages. We also have Delph, Sigurdsson, Tosun, Kenny,Lonergan out of contract.

So thats £100mil + £500k+ wages off the books.

2023: Rondon, Coleman, Townsend, Davies, Allan, Mina, Doucoure (some may extend) are out of contract.

Some will be sold beforehand and others will leave end of contract. Probably £500/500k wages there.



2: As above, conservatively just moving on certain players listed we'd probably bring in £100-125mil and £750/800k wages (keeping some players) over two summers.

Do you not agree that is an amount which should replace those players + the squad should improve? Then add in another big sale and the numbers become very high which should give the strategy a further boost.

3: Check the out of contract players next summer and 2023. Then look at the players we have out of contract, we should be able to do well here

4: Moyes didnt have players with value aside from one or two. We actually have plenty of players worth £10-15mil and £20mil+.

 

[TGW89]

Seems plausible but is it not entirely irrelevant if when we're relegated in May? The drop spells death, and this bunch of losers will see us sink with barely a shrug of the shoulders. Even Kendall III's lot cared, and most of them were winners of Peter Johnson's "Play for Everton in 1997/98 raffle"

Except Seamus. Who will continue to "say the line", and every syllable will be hollow.

What a sick end to 25 years of support from moi. They can all get bent frankly.

 

[WA Toffee]

Each manager we have had over the last few years has brought in players which they think will work in the style of play they want. As managers move on, a new one comes in with a different style and wants different players. This keeps going on until we are left with a squad which has no cohesion or obvious style of play.

Any manager needs to be given a couple of seasons to get the team towards a coherent gameplan with square pegs in square holes.

 

[ClausThomsen]

To address each point:
1: I did state that if players wouldnt extend then they would be sold. So lets say Mina + Richarlison were sold in the summer.
Thats £100mil + circa £200k wages. We also have Delph, Sigurdsson, Tosun, Kenny,Lonergan out of contract.
So thats £100mil + £500k+ wages off the books.
2023: Rondon, Coleman, Townsend, Davies, Allan, Mina, Doucoure (some may extend) are out of contract.
Some will be sold beforehand and others will leave end of contract. Probably £500/500k wages there.

2: As above, conservatively just moving on certain players listed we'd probably bring in £100-125mil and £750/800k wages (keeping some players) over two summers.

Do you not agree that is an amount which should replace those players + the squad should improve? Then add in another big sale and the numbers become very high which should give the strategy a further boost.

3: Check the out of contract players next summer and 2023. Then look at the players we have out of contract, we should be able to do well here
4: Moyes didnt have players with value aside from one or two. We actually have plenty of players worth £10-15mil and £20mil+.

If we hypothetically got £100M for Richarlison & Mina then that isn't money in the bank. Any reported transfer figures tend to ignore agent payments, contract settlements and a myriad of other expenses. The reported figure is also usually the potential figure with add-ons triggered which very often ends up not being the case.

But regardless of that say £100M comes in. Then as you say there's few more out of contracts but those aren't going to generate any income bar wages saved. Considering it's an already incredibly stretched squad in terms of quality depth then that £100M isn't going to go far. Players with potential PL quality are still fairly expensive and players with proven PL quality are more so.

The signing we made over the last 2.5 years which reflects the model you propose most is arguably Godfrey. A young player with scope for improvement who can hold a place in and contribute to the first team. He would account for 25% of that hypothetical transfer income. So four players like that to cover 7 outgoings in an already too thin squad?

Then there is the further reality that there are 20 teams in the PL of which most can operate above net-zero spending. They aren't going to stand still and not compete for all these promising low price young bargains and free agents that are apparently out there. Improving the squad, maximising value and achieving continual improvement on the field is the aim of every single club.

My argument isn't against replacing with quality. My argument is that it is exceptionally difficult to do if the transfer conditions are near net-zero with a concentration on young players while also also aiming for continual improvement in league position and letting your best players leave if they don't play nice. It's a lovely sounding idea but it's closer to Football Manager than real life to think it's that straightforward.

 

[paultheblue]

If I live to be 100 I'll never understand your obsession with yoof mate.

Do West Ham fans care old Moist isn't "young" or "progressive" sat in the top 4?

Madness!

Moysie was a yoof when we got him and with the right backing from the board could have been a Goodison legend.
Unfortunately we gave him a bag of beans and map to Poundland the rest is history.

 

[Jokerdan]

I would be interested to know what percentage of our youngsters actually ever get over the line and get elevated to the first team. I suspect those who do get as far as the U-23's don't get any further as their development gets arrested. These kids need exposure to the higher grades of football but it seldom happens - with the occasional exception - and they must become disillusioned when they see the kind of first team players we have who are picked week in, week out despite their woeful performances.

The current likes of Simms, Branthwaite...and one or two other bench warmers are not going to stick around indefinitely. We've already lost the young left back who refused to re-sign on a perma contract (whether he makes summat of himself remains to be seen and his character may be considered a tad mercenary but I put that down to his agent as much as anything) which begs to suggest that our investment in youth is money wasted if we don't blood them at the highest level and deprive them their development...even a couple of games at first team level just as part of their progression.
But no, we would sooner go out and spend, spend, spend on very average roundsmen who probably cannot believe that someone is willing to pay the contracts they get and we end up getting what we deserve, mercenary has-beens with little or no genuine heart for the fight.

If BMD is ever completed we may as well call it the Pleasure Dome Home for Gentile former Footballers such are the type of players we seem constantly to attract. There doesn't appear to be any form of due diligence undertaken when we research potential signings.

 

[Brett Angell Delight]

So we simply sell a massive amount of players that nobody wants to buy and use the no money we get from anyone to buy players that will propel us up the table? I’m in.

 

[Zatara]

If we hypothetically got £100M for Richarlison & Mina then that isn't money in the bank. Any reported transfer figures tend to ignore agent payments, contract settlements and a myriad of other expenses. The reported figure is also usually the potential figure with add-ons triggered which very often ends up not being the case.

But regardless of that say £100M comes in. Then as you say there's few more out of contracts but those aren't going to generate any income bar wages saved. Considering it's an already incredibly stretched squad in terms of quality depth then that £100M isn't going to go far. Players with potential PL quality are still fairly expensive and players with proven PL quality are more so.

The signing we made over the last 2.5 years which reflects the model you propose most is arguably Godfrey. A young player with scope for improvement who can hold a place in and contribute to the first team. He would account for 25% of that hypothetical transfer income. So four players like that to cover 7 outgoings in an already too thin squad?

Then there is the further reality that there are 20 teams in the PL of which most can operate above net-zero spending. They aren't going to stand still and not compete for all these promising low price young bargains and free agents that are apparently out there. Improving the squad, maximising value and achieving continual improvement on the field is the aim of every single club.

My argument isn't against replacing with quality. My argument is that it is exceptionally difficult to do if the transfer conditions are near net-zero with a concentration on young players while also also aiming for continual improvement in league position and letting your best players leave if they don't play nice. It's a lovely sounding idea but it's closer to Football Manager than real life to think it's that straightforward.

£100mil lets not forget goes onto the balance sheet as a total amount as a sale while signings are shown (for profit/sustainability) over the course of players contracts. So in theory, we could spend what we bring in at 5× if the contract is 5 years. But ive been more prudent.

How many of these players (numbers wise) would need replacing:

Delph, Sigurdsson, Lonergan, Tosun, Kenny. Its just one, Kenny at RB.

Then if we add in Richarlison and Mina it becomes 3 players.

For now, lets ignore any other sales and just focus on that:

Pickford
??? Godfrey ??? Digne
Doucoure Allan
??? ??? Gray
DCL
​

£100mil + £500k in weekly wages.

You could even say £126mil and £400k in weekly wages (the £26mil coming from £100k wages over a 5 year deal).

I think thats very reasonable to expect 3, if not 4 players u23 with high quality for those numbers.