POTUS 2016

Push the button, pull the lever, who's it going to be?

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I do enjoy watching the build up to the Presidential race, but have always found it curious how little the outgoing President will get involved in promoting his party and a successor. Is that an unwritten convention, when an outgoing President is done after his term(s), that it is time to bow out completely and leave it to others to decide from scratch.
 
ToffeeDoug said:
I do enjoy watching the build up to the Presidential race, but have always found it curious how little the outgoing President will get involved in promoting his party and a successor. Is that an unwritten convention, when an outgoing President is done after his term(s), that it is time to bow out completely and leave it to others to decide from scratch.
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I think that's right. Occasionally, I think the President will promote the VP if he's running. Though, to be honest, neither Cheney nor Biden ran for President after being the Veep so it's been a while. And then you have the President nuking their VP's chances as Eisenhower did to Nixon. Ike was asked by a reporter about what Nixon contributed as Eisenhower's response was along the lines of "If you give me a couple of days, I might think of something"
 

Oddschecker betting......


Hillary Clinton 4/5 5/6 5/6 4/5 5/6 17/20 5/6 5/6 4/5 5/6 5/6 5/6 8/11 5/6 5/6 5/6 5/6 11/13
Donald Trump 10/3 7/2 11/4 10/3 11/4 15/4 7/2 7/2 9/2 3 4 4 10/3 7/2 7/2 7/2 3 3 3 3
Marco Rubio 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 11/2 6 6 9/2 6 11/2 6 11/2 6 6 6 25/4
Bernie Sanders 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 7 6 6 11/2 6 11/2 6 6 6 7
Ted Cruz 14 14 16 14 16 16 14 11 14 16 16 10 16 10 14 10 16 12 16 12
Jeb Bush 20 20 22 18 22 20 16 22 16 25 20 20 22 20 20 20 25 22 25 20

The betting favours Clinton, but look who's next.....
 

ItsOKImAPilot said:
I'll be leaving the country after my service commitment if you are.
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Just look what happened with Carter and Reagan....

Reagan — trailing Carter in the December 1979 Gallup poll by a 60-36 percent margin — won the White House with 50.8 percent of the vote to Carter’s 41.0 percent......

I think the damage being done by the current President, being seen as incredibly weak internationally, will play with the US populace to push Trump to the job..........you have all been warned.......
 
Garrick said:
As far as I can figure out Trump's appeal, it's this: Low information voters, who normally aren't tuned in to politics at all, are upset with the current situation they're in, and have finally found a candidate they're at least somewhat familiar with that actually talks like them. But they're not politically experienced enough to actually adopt a political philosophy, or to understand what's wrong with Trump's platform and why a presidency based on that would be disastrous.

I think the changing demographics and "unintentional gerrymandering" I'll call it means this one's basically on lock for the Dems. In most other contests, approval ratings in the mid 40's (where Obama's is now) is basically a lock for re-election. Catastrophe may happen, but I don't think the Clinton FBI inquiry is going to be the trigger, either.

Short of a miracle of a Supreme Court decision, the House will stay GOP. The Senate might flip, but I don't feel confident enough to call it. In order to retake the Senate Dems will have to win all of the where they have a Cook PVI edge (IL, NH, PA, WI, and CO), defend all of their seats, and get the presidency. That's 50 and the tiebreaker. Their defenses though are all really easy (CA, WA, OR, NY, HI, CT and MD), so it's definitely doable, but it's gonna take some serious needle threading.

Consider these my official predictions and vault the everloving daylights out of me.

You have a horse yet in this race @mezzrow lad?
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Too harsh on Trump supporters, maybe. Although I think Bernie and The Donald, both essentially populists, make the same appeal but to different audiences.
 
peteblue said:
Oddschecker betting......


Hillary Clinton 4/5 5/6 5/6 4/5 5/6 17/20 5/6 5/6 4/5 5/6 5/6 5/6 8/11 5/6 5/6 5/6 5/6 11/13
Donald Trump 10/3 7/2 11/4 10/3 11/4 15/4 7/2 7/2 9/2 3 4 4 10/3 7/2 7/2 7/2 3 3 3 3
Marco Rubio 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 11/2 6 6 9/2 6 11/2 6 11/2 6 6 6 25/4
Bernie Sanders 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 7 6 6 11/2 6 11/2 6 6 6 7
Ted Cruz 14 14 16 14 16 16 14 11 14 16 16 10 16 10 14 10 16 12 16 12
Jeb Bush 20 20 22 18 22 20 16 22 16 25 20 20 22 20 20 20 25 22 25 20

The betting favours Clinton, but look who's next.....
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I think if you take Trump out, Hillary's numbers may go down as well.
 
SerenityNigh said:
I'd like to see him take Jeb. He needs an intelligent stiff as his VP
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Bush III would be a terrible VP. Of those currently running for the GOP ticket, he would probably prefer to end up with Rubio, with Kasich or Paul as tolerable alternates. The rest of them are either too horrifying (Cruz, Carson) or too inane (the rest) to matter.
 

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