The 6 at the bottom are definite. The 3 above the relegation spots have told us so and the 3 in the relegation zone won’t vote for it so as you say it only takes 1 more. Southampton aren’t safe, there’s nothing to say they’ll just settle for shutting up shop where they are now and then that’s 7.
We’ve only had 2 votes up to now, 1 about starting light training, 1 about BCD in neutral stadiums which they thought clubs were in favour of, they weren’t, in fact only about 4 or 5 clubs were. They've now got to convince the government to let them play in their own stadiums or we may already be done.
I think there’s loads of ulterior motives here, clubs saying all the right things in public, paying lip service but behind the scenes I think it’ll be a bit different. There were quotes coming out of Spurs and Sheff United earlier in the season that they didn’t want to carry on but then they all seemed to go quiet. Sheff Utd will be made up with Europe and prize money at PPG top 6 finish will give them if it ends now regardless of what they say in public. Why will they gamble dropping out the top 10. City, they may vote cancel knowing they’re not going to be effected financially whilst there rivals Liverpool and United are going to be damaged more than anyone by this. If Usmanov is backing us looking to get around FFP, we may do the same. Leicester and Chelsea will vote cancel as they’ll be in the CL when they use PPG to decide prize money and final positions but no relegation or title.
What we do know from the BCD vote that got voted down so convincingly, they’re not quite as desperate to get back as they’re saying in public.
We also know they’re talking about what they’re going to do if the season gets curtailed later this week. As The Chairman Richard Scudamore said, curtailing is still on the table.