Relegation 2022/23

[Saint Domingo]

If the full backs are injured, the only logical system we have the personnel for is a back 3 with Coady coming in. Then put Iwobi and Mcneil as wing backs so they have more licence than if they were traditional full backs

I just don’t like Everton with a back 5. I think as long as Keane isn’t in the CB position we can get away with one of Godfrey/Holgate/Coady playing right back with Tarkowski and Mina in the middle and Mykolenko at LB if fit (he was supposed to be close for Wolves)

I just don’t think we have the legs in midfield for 5 at the back or the composure in possession to make it work. I’ve only reall seen Chelsea under Conte and Tuchel make it work consistently in the prem when they had Kante in midfield, CBs all comfortable on the ball, and wingbacks good in possession. We don’t have any of them

 

[ToffeeTim]

The mathematics will be much clearer by 10 pm tonight. But this is what we know for sure:

If Leicester win, then survival is in their hands, not ours. We would need to better their result on Sunday to survive.

If Leicester draw, survival is in our hands, not theirs, but we will need a win to guarantee safety. Effectively we must match their result to come above them in this scenario.

if Leicester lose, survival is in our hands and we only need a draw to guarantee we finish above them. A draw will also be enough to guarantee survival in this scenario if Leeds fail to win by more than 2 clear goals.

 

[ToffeeTim]

I just don’t like Everton with a back 5. I think as long as Keane isn’t in the CB position we can get away with one of Godfrey/Holgate/Coady playing right back with Tarkowski and Mina in the middle and Mykolenko at LB if fit (he was supposed to be close for Wolves)

I just don’t think we have the legs in midfield for 5 at the back or the composure in possession to make it work. I’ve only reall seen Chelsea under Conte and Tuchel make it work consistently in the prem when they had Kante in midfield, CBs all comfortable on the ball, and wingbacks good in possession. We don’t have any of them

Play a 352/3511. We don't have the personnel for a 343 either but can still play a back 3 and 3 in midfield.

We don't have the personnel for a 451/433 if Patterson, Coleman and Mykolenko are all unavailable. We've seen the shambolic performances with Holgate and Godfrey at full back.

We need to move to a back 3 in this scenario and Coady is a natural back 3 player, so use him

Pickford
Mina Coady Tarkowski
Iwobi Onana Gueye Garner McNeil
Doucoure
Simms

Or move Doucoure deeper into midfield and put Gray off the forward with Onana missing out.

 

[MrGrumpy]

I hadn't looked into Newcastle's situation - they still need a point tonight to be home and dry. Even if Newcastle lost both games narrowly 1-0, Liverpool could have them on goal difference given they're up against Southampton at the weekend. Any losses over 1 goal and they're in trouble

The RS are the one team that can turn that around, you know what they are like

 

[MACCA75]

Everyone loves saying that Leicester can’t do this or Leeds definitely can’t do that. It’s football - anything could happen.
Sheff Wed got beat 4-0 and then won 5-1 against the same side just days later. Crazy results happen.

The margins are so slender - Leeds actually were much better than a sleepy West Ham in that first half the other day, were 1-0 up and dominating. West Ham went ahead on the narrowest of VAR offside calls.

It’s impossible to make confident predictions about any end of season game.

 

[matty1878]

8 hours of pooing and weeing myself

 

[matty1878]

Everyone loves saying that Leicester can’t do this or Leeds definitely can’t do that. It’s football - anything could happen.
Sheff Wed got beat 4-0 and then won 5-1 against the same side just days later. Crazy results happen.

The margins are so slender - Leeds actually were much better than a sleepy West Ham in that first half the other day, were 1-0 up and dominating. West Ham went ahead on the narrowest of VAR offside calls.

It’s impossible to make confident predictions about any end of season game.

this is correct anything can happen

 

[matty1878]

And both, please liaise with @matty1878 if you need someone to calm you down in this time of crisis

ha ha me lol

 

[allen]

I don't mean to cross-promote my own post like a jerk, but I posted this in the Dyche thread and I think it has value here, too:

I've been curious for a while about what our 'chances of staying up' would look like plotted on a graph encompassing the whole season, so I made one:

(Data from FiveThirtyEight).

So we sacked Lampard at the absolute nadir.

The recovery certainly hasn't been linear, and it's felt that way. Though the trend is clearly broadly positive, mid to late April (Fulham loss to Newcastle loss) certainly looked ropey.

That huge spike after that is the Brighton game. Just goes to show what a colossal result that was.

Some of the oscillation under Dyche is presumably because results are more consequential late in the season, as time is running out, but it's still pretty wild I think - and there's little evidence on this alone of the sustained improvement we'd all have wanted when Lampard was sacked.

Still, as long as we creep over the line, that's ultimately all that matters this season.

 

[Wat Tyler]

If Leicester lose tonight I’ll be very, very confident we will get safe.

This season when the fixtures come out it was back to the bad old days where my first thing to look out for was our run in incase we needed points to stay up, which has turned out right. Bournemouth have had a great season, but to finish with a home game against them is nice considering what it could’ve been, like Arsenal away last season.

There’s no guarantee Leeds beat Spurs at all, and you never know, if Leicester lose tonight, West Ham could easily get a point there which would mean we could be sitting in safety right now without needing another point.

Great point for us on Saturday because of the manner of it, but Leeds losing yesterday has allowed us to breathe a lot easier. Not done yet but I feel much better about it compared to this time last week.

 

[ToffeeTim]

The mathematics will be much clearer by 10 pm tonight. But this is what we know for sure:

If Leicester win, then survival is in their hands, not ours. We would need to better their result on Sunday to survive.

If Leicester draw, survival is in our hands, not theirs, but we will need a win to guarantee safety. Effectively we must match their result to come above them in this scenario.

if Leicester lose, survival is in our hands and we only need a draw to guarantee we finish above them. A draw will also be enough to guarantee survival in this scenario if Leeds fail to win by more than 2 clear goals.

Forgot to also add that if Leicester win both their remaining matches by a single goal, we can still get to safety with a 9 nil victory on Sunday.

 

[Miked1e]

We could just do with Newcastle wanting to put on an exhibition for their fans tonight and to complete the qualification for CL along with positioning themselves 3rd..... Not sure United will win against both Chelsea and City.

 

[Mashtray]

Everyone loves saying that Leicester can’t do this or Leeds definitely can’t do that. It’s football - anything could happen.
Sheff Wed got beat 4-0 and then won 5-1 against the same side just days later. Crazy results happen.

The margins are so slender - Leeds actually were much better than a sleepy West Ham in that first half the other day, were 1-0 up and dominating. West Ham went ahead on the narrowest of VAR offside calls.

It’s impossible to make confident predictions about any end of season game.

Well as of today. Leicester is now our biggest rival. Until we know the result of tonight

 

[matty1878]

If Leicester lose tonight I’ll be very, very confident we will get safe.

This season when the fixtures come out it was back to the bad old days where my first thing to look out for was our run in incase we needed points to stay up, which has turned out right. Bournemouth have had a great season, but to finish with a home game against them is nice considering what it could’ve been, like Arsenal away last season.

There’s no guarantee Leeds beat Spurs at all, and you never know, if Leicester lose tonight, West Ham could easily get a point there which would mean we could be sitting in safety right now without needing another point.

Great point for us on Saturday because of the manner of it, but Leeds losing yesterday has allowed us to breathe a lot easier. Not done yet but I feel much better about it compared to this time last week.

in football anything can be bizzare
we have to hope newcastle help later
or sunday is irrelevant.

then we worry about sunday

 

[Tony’s Carp]

I don't mean to cross-promote my own post like a jerk, but I posted this in the Dyche thread and I think it has value here, too:

The probability swing that can occur tonight is terrifying. If Leicester lose I’d say we’re probably about 85% staying up, but if Leicester win we’re probably about 70% plus going down.