Relegation

[Tony’s Carp]

Newcastles window was annoyingly savvy compared to ours...

It was also the best part of 100 million more expensive than ours. Yes, they've got what they needed to buy their way out of trouble but with unlimited funds you'd expect that. For a club with actual budget restrictions getting through 50+ million on Burn, Wood and Trippier at 29, 30 and 31 would not be considered savvy.

 

[Bluestar]

It was also the best part of 100 million more expensive than ours. Yes, they've got what they needed to buy their way out of trouble but with unlimited funds you'd expect that. For a club with actual budget restrictions getting through 50+ million on Burn, Wood and Trippier at 29, 30 and 31 would not be considered savvy.

They will also have to comply with FFP. They have two mor3e years before it bites.

 

[coollino]

That would definitely see us stay up, but I’m less optimistic about our final tally. We may survive, but by the skin of our teeth.

We need some points out of the next four difficult league games. I can’t see any wins, maybe two draws?

I think we'll get an away form, the FA cup game might bring that as there is less pressure

 

[RomanReigns]

burnley are starting aaron lennon in games lol

 

[jimmythenut]

Lots of comments completely ruling us out of some of the tougher fixtures. But the way I look at it, I can see us taking points vs Man United and Leicester and possibly even a fading/tired West Ham.

On paper yes, looks grim, but we've stepped up and looked better against teams that look to attack us rather than the teams that try and keep it tight and nick a 1-0.

 

[davek]

I think it was clear in one of Franks answers in the post Newcastle interview that he will be pragmatic from here on in. He said something along the lines of, we need to work with the crowd and battle for points, he went on to say that in the future he wants to change the way we play, but, for now, it's all about survival, by any means possible.

Quite right too. Tbf, he's sent them out to be beaten against S'ton, Spurs and Wolves. Let's hope he never hands a piss poor team responsibility to play 'expansive' football again.

 

[Stephenlloyd]

West Ham may rest a few key players against us as they have their QF against Lyon 4 days later ?‍

I’m sure a few of their players will have their eye on that game.

That’s what could work in our favour .Leicester may have a European semi final and safe in mid table. Palace maybe on the beach and hopefully when we play Watford they’re quite a way from safety. Even Brentford could be safe when we play them last Home game. But let’s hope we’re safe to. That would be a nightmare

 

[Stephenlloyd]

Lots of comments completely ruling us out of some of the tougher fixtures. But the way I look at it, I can see us taking points vs Man United and Leicester and possibly even a fading/tired West Ham.

On paper yes, looks grim, but we've stepped up and looked better against teams that look to attack us rather than the teams that try and keep it tight and nick a 1-0.

Law of averages say we will nick something somewhere imo.
And obviously not losing at Burnley will be huge. It’s a shame Allan misses it and probably to early for Mina

 

[davek]

That would definitely see us stay up, but I’m less optimistic about our final tally. We may survive, but by the skin of our teeth.

We need some points out of the next four difficult league games. I can’t see any wins, maybe two draws?

I can see wins there for us if we play defensive football. We can beat Burnley for sure. We already have this season 3-1. And United and Leicester at home I dont fear either. We can win one or both of those. If we played the way we did against City in those matches we'll win all three.

It's just which Everton turns up on the day.


As said above though, if the way we approach games is now sorted out - ie bodies behind the ball, relying on Gordon as an out-ball and getting forward on a counter attack - then we'll be ok. We'll defo survive with that strategy providing we keep clear of a welter of bad injuries.

I said before that we get minimum 9 points and maximum 15 points. I'd err toward the latter figure tbh. That would set a hell of a target for those below and Leeds and Brentford above.

 

[davek]

Just looking at Brentford's last 9 fixtures.

I'm struggling to make a case for them getting more than 5 or 6 points.

The last two games they got 6 points, but they were each against fellow bottom three teams.

My prediction is they finish on 35 points.

 

[Drico]

The Leeds result last night clarifies things. We are in a definite battle with Watford and Burnley, and a possible battle with Leeds, Brentford, Newcastle, and Norwich.

Leeds, Brentford, and Newcastle have given themselves breathing space, but two of those could well be sucked back in within the next month. Newcastle should have enough. Norwich are almost certainly doomed, and would need some freak results to be a live threat.

But we now know that Watford and Burnley are our direct rivals. First and foremost, we have to avoid losing to either. Under no circumstances can we lose either or both of those games. At the very worst, we must come out of those matches in the same position as we went in - but with one more game gone in their bids to overhaul us. Realistically, we should be aiming for two wins to put all of this to bed - but four points would be a return that is almost sure to keep us up. We simply cannot lose to those teams.

We could well get points in matches where we are outsiders, possibly against the liked of United or West Ham, and we can still hope to target wins over Brentford and Palace. But swings and roundabouts. If we beat both of Burnley and Watford, we will be clear. But bottom line: if we lose one of those, we are dicing with death.

 

[kithnou]

As bad as we are, how are Burnley "likely to win" 8 of their last 11 matches when they've won 3 out of 27?
What's wrong with this place?

 

[MACCA75]

As bad as we are, how are Burnley "likely to win" 8 of their last 11 matches when they've won 3 out of 27?
What's wrong with this place?

Who said that? Ha!

 

[jonnyboy316]

From the games we have left I cant see us getting less than 9 points...not on the form shown since FL stepped in.

(Cup game against PL Brentford* legitimately included in the following sequence), that's:

WLWLLLLW

9 *points* from 9 games.

Gets us to 34 points.

For me, Burnley are the only ones capable of geting past us from the bottom 3. That would mean they'd have to make up the 4 point deficit and win 13 points. They have a decent run in full of points winning potential. But they're still Burnley and they have the same points as us in their last 9: DWWLDDLLL.

So - all things following that pattern fairly closely - they'd struggle to get past us even on our lowest predicted total of 34 IMO.

But I cant see us getting just 9 points. I think we've stumbled into a formula of playing where we dont get too adventurous but rather keep ourselves in a game and wait our chance(s).

On that basis I see us picking up another 12-15 points. And I dont think that's too fanciful.

Injuries to key players permitting, of course.

That'd see us on 37-40 points and would more than likely see us about 5th from bottom.

Nice to see some positivity Dave. 12 points is our upper limit for me. I think we will end on 34 or 35

 

[jonnyboy316]

That’s what could work in our favour .Leicester may have a European semi final and safe in mid table. Palace maybe on the beach and hopefully when we play Watford they’re quite a way from safety. Even Brentford could be safe when we play them last Home game. But let’s hope we’re safe to. That would be a nightmare

Palace will probably have an FA cup semi to distract them