Russia

[Mutzo Nutzo]

It can still end well - if one of the two aircrew did survive and is handed over unharmed it will probably go away quite quickly - but if Erdogan keeps upping the ante he will find himself very alone very quickly, NATO (or at least most of the member nations) are not going to go to the wall for him over this.

One would imagine the Yanks will tell him he either eats humble pie, STFU and never even thinks of doing this again or see the US-led support for the rebels switch to the Kurds, Assad's time in an "interim leadership role" grow a lot longer than it is now and the co-operation between Syria, Russia, Iran, the US and the rest of NATO over this (and other issues) get a lot closer.

One things for certain, Turkey is deffo supporting rebel groups (Turkmen/FSA) in Northern Syria - Vlad will now go after these groups now with no mercy. His ground attack aircraft will be supported by AA fighters and backed up by anti-air cover provided by the Moskva. The Turkish AF will effectively be grounded and helpless.

If it flies - it dies!

 

[peteblue]

Starting to escalate now.

Russia breaks off all military contacts with Turkey and deploys guided missile cruiser off the coast of Syria with orders to destroy all threats to Russian forces in theatre.

https://www.rt.com/news/323329-russia-suspend-military-turkey/

This is not going to end well.

Bluff and bluster. Threats to Russian forces like today are a direct result of not following protocol. A guided missile destroyer can certainly stop attacking planes but is not really suitable for applying retribution to Turkish planes operating within Turkey. Turkey could almost certainly take out the destroyer with land based missiles......Putin will have to sound tough but he will know that he doesn't have a leg to stand on, he cannot attack Turkey because that brings in NATO and he doesn't really have the forces in place anyway.........

 

[dandydan]

Bluff and bluster. Threats to Russian forces like today are a direct result of not following protocol. A guided missile destroyer can certainly stop attacking planes but is not really suitable for applying retribution to Turkish planes operating within Turkey. Turkey could almost certainly take out the destroyer with land based missiles......Putin will have to sound tough but he will know that he doesn't have a leg to stand on, he cannot attack Turkey because that brings in NATO and he doesn't really have the forces in place anyway.........

NATO will not go to war with Russia over turkey. Public opinion wouldn't stand for it.

 

[tsubaki]

Greece and Turkey are both allies and members of NATO. If French planes flew across UK airspace I'm sure we would not shoot them down. Which bit of "Russia was warned by NATO and Turkey not to do it again" do you not understand......

Did you even read the link? The Greeks have made repeated complaints about the overflights which are part of a sovereignty dispute in the Aegean, this isn't an issue of one ally's planes flying over another one. As for "Russia was warned by NATO and Turkey not to do it again", in what world do you think it is OK for one country to immediately shoot another countries plane down simply for slightly crossing its border?

Oh - and I am genuinely confused by your stance on this, given your stance on the Paris thread.

 

[tsubaki]

NATO will not go to war with Russia over turkey. Public opinion wouldn't stand for it.

From the NATO meeting earlier today:

Diplomats present at the meeting told Reuters that while none of the 28 Nato envoys defended Russia’s actions, many expressed concern that Turkey did not escort the Russian warplane out of its airspace. “There are other ways of dealing with these kinds of incidents,” said one diplomat who declined to be named.

 

[peteblue]

It can still end well - if one of the two aircrew did survive and is handed over unharmed it will probably go away quite quickly - but if Erdogan keeps upping the ante he will find himself very alone very quickly, NATO (or at least most of the member nations) are not going to go to the wall for him over this.

One would imagine the Yanks will tell him he either eats humble pie, STFU and never even thinks of doing this again or see the US-led support for the rebels switch to the Kurds, Assad's time in an "interim leadership role" grow a lot longer than it is now and the co-operation between Syria, Russia, Iran, the US and the rest of NATO over this (and other issues) get a lot closer.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if the US pushed Turkey to shoot down this plane. The US have looked second best in this conflict and have allowed Putin to show himself on the world stage as the big man. This downing of a plane will help to put him back in his place...........

 

[peteblue]

NATO will not go to war with Russia over turkey. Public opinion wouldn't stand for it.

Nobody is going to war. Russia will have to suck this one up.......

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

Bluff and bluster. Threats to Russian forces like today are a direct result of not following protocol. A guided missile destroyer can certainly stop attacking planes but is not really suitable for applying retribution to Turkish planes operating within Turkey. Turkey could almost certainly take out the destroyer with land based missiles......Putin will have to sound tough but he will know that he doesn't have a leg to stand on, he cannot attack Turkey because that brings in NATO and he doesn't really have the forces in place anyway.........

I don't think he will attack Turkey not directly anyway - he is gonna go after the Turkish supported rebel goups in Northern Syria. Problem is with removal of military contacts between Russia and Turkey you lose the option of the tac air controllers being able to de-conflict opposing aircraft. Huge problem.

 

[tsubaki]

I wouldn't be at all surprised if the US pushed Turkey to shoot down this plane. The US have looked second best in this conflict and have allowed Putin to show himself on the world stage as the big man. This downing of a plane will help to put him back in his place...........

I would be absolutely amazed if they had anything do with it; on other other hand this is precisely the kind of macho idiocy that Erdogan has made a career out of.

 

[peteblue]

Did you even read the link? The Greeks have made repeated complaints about the overflights which are part of a sovereignty dispute in the Aegean, this isn't an issue of one ally's planes flying over another one. As for "Russia was warned by NATO and Turkey not to do it again", in what world do you think it is OK for one country to immediately shoot another countries plane down simply for slightly crossing its border?

Oh - and I am genuinely confused by your stance on this, given your stance on the Paris thread.

It's very simple. All countries have the right to defend their airspace and as such most countries observe the boundaries and protocols. The Greeks and the Turks will not come to blows over infringements as they are both NATO members. Russia constantly tries to exert power over the eastern members of NATO. They were told to stop, they didn't, they were shot down. This was not the first time they overflew, it was part of a deliberate strategy, they were told, they were told again, they were warned, they carried on, they were shot down.......I'm not sure how you don't really get this.........

 

[peteblue]

I don't think he will attack Turkey not directly anyway - he is gonna go after the Turkish supported rebel goups in Northern Syria. Problem is with removal of military contacts between Russia and Turkey you lose the option of the tac air controllers being able to de-conflict opposing aircraft. Huge problem.

This is part of the problem. Turkey sees Russia as going against it's interests in Syria. Turkey is making a statement here, and rightly so in my opinion, even without NATO Turkey can look after itself. Putin has been given a free ride so far by the waste of space called Obama, this will probably help to ensure that all aircraft communicate better so as not to have a repeat.........

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

I wouldn't be at all surprised if the US pushed Turkey to shoot down this plane. The US have looked second best in this conflict and have allowed Putin to show himself on the world stage as the big man. This downing of a plane will help to put him back in his place...........

I think that Obama, whilst stating that Turkey had every right to defend it's airspace in public will in secret be giving Erdogan a slap and telling him to pipe rar down over this one. The whole incident was never about a 17sec incursion into Turkish airspace it was about Russia not talking to Turkey about bombing the Turkmen rebel artillery positions. As Russia saw them as a direct threat to their airbase in Latakia.

Turkey considers the Turkmen to be a national interest in the same way Russia considers "ethnic Russians" outside Russia to be of national interest. The Turkish Government can be very stubborn and the shooting down of the SU 24 was an overreaction. It is acknowledged that there needs to be better communication in place with Russia regarding air movements and co-ordination otherwise more of these incidents are gonna occur.

 

[tsubaki]

This is part of the problem. Turkey sees Russia as going against it's interests in Syria. Turkey is making a statement here, and rightly so in my opinion, even without NATO Turkey can look after itself. Putin has been given a free ride so far by the waste of space called Obama, this will probably help to ensure that all aircraft communicate better so as not to have a repeat.........

So basically, you are for Islamic State?

 

[peteblue]

I think that Obama, whilst stating that Turkey had every right to defend it's airspace in public will in secret be giving Erdogan a slap and telling him to pipe rar down over this one. The whole incident was never about a 17sec incursion into Turkish airspace it was about Russia not talking to Turkey about bombing the Turkmen rebel artillery positions. As Russia saw them as a direct threat to their airbase in Latakia.

Turkey considers the Turkmen to be a national interest in the same way Russia considers "ethnic Russians" outside Russia to be of national interest. The Turkish Government can be very stubborn and the shooting down of the SU 24 was an overreaction. It is acknowledged that there needs to be better communication in place with Russia regarding air movements and co-ordination otherwise more of these incidents are gonna occur.

I think that Obama will be crapping his pants. I don't believe that his military chiefs will. Russia will be rightly upset, but will now have to appreciate it's not the only power around and will have to 'co-operate' in this war zone. Personally I deplore the death of one or two airmen in making a point, but it's nothing more than Putin would have done if roles were reversed. The Russian airbase is not really under any threat. I honestly believe that after all the shouting, better communication will develop...........

 

[peteblue]

So basically, you are for Islamic State?

No mate........