The 2015 Popularity Contest (aka UK General Election )

[moyeslovechild]

Apart from they're the only party to openly have a rule preventing anyone who has been affiliated with the BNP at any point from joining the party. That's more than can be said for Labour who actually do have a few members with ties to the BNP. Does that make Labour racist?

Mental how UKIP has all the support of the right wing bigots

 

[Eggs]

It means much better links between community care that is usually council run and hospital care which is run by the local trust. That has to be a good thing. Lets see how things pan out. Giving people who run the service control over their budget however seems infinitely sensible to me.

....the principle appears fine but I understand devolved outline was presented to Manchester in December without a mention of Health. I also understand that both community and hospital care in that authority are in massive debt. My concern is that this is policy on the hoof. As you say, let's see how things pan out.

 

[Milk]

Mental how UKIP has all the support of the right wing bigots

Not really. UKIP offers an end to immigration and possible repatriation in a lot of peoples minds (whether that is true or not I don't know as I cant be bothered to read their stuff). Exactly what BNP, Combat18, EDL etc "fight" for.

Anyway, the mainstream parties are just shades of grey ... and Miliband

Vote Loony

 

[edge]

wish we had a northern party, bit like the SNP to fight are corner, fed up with westminster and there poodles up here Manchester/ Leeds there are loads of other citys up here that need a voice and nobody else gets a look in.
If the jocks / welsh ever go on there own way, Liverpool should be there Gibraltar

 

[Bruce Wayne]

wish we had a northern party, bit like the SNP to fight are corner, fed up with westminster and there poodles up here Manchester/ Leeds there are loas of other citys up here that need a voice and nobody else gets a look in.
If the jocks / welsh ever go on there own way, Liverpool should be there Gibraltar

Isn't that Labour?

 

[edge]

Isn't that Labour?

wish it was, in votes/ name yes maybe but at the top sadly not what i would call real labour.

 

[Pienaar's gloves]

Isn't that Labour?

In the 1960's perhaps.

 

[davek]

Now that's text book burying of 'bad news': net migration rises to almost 300,000...the Tories in a jam....oh wait, we'll release Jihadi John's real identity, that'll keep them occupied.

 

[Pienaar's gloves]

I do the YouGov surveys and they sent out their most current prediction this morning:

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/02/16/scottish-voters-dent-milibands-hopes/

Despite winning last week’s skirmishes on tax avoidance, Ed Miliband’s prospects of becoming Prime Minister are fading. Labour remain on course to win up to 30 seats in England and Wales, but could see their route to power blocked by the Scottish National Party juggernaut north of the border.

Last month, in my first election prediction, I expected Labour to stage a partial come-back in Scotland and retain 31 of the 41 seats they won in 2010. However, I also noted that this would leave a number of Labour MPs nursing narrow majorities.

Since then, Jim Murphy, Labour’s new Scottish leader, has fought pugnaciously to revive the party’s fortunes, with bold new policies (such as promising to hire 1,000 more nurses from the proceeds of the UK-wide Mansion tax, which very few Scots will pay). Yet the poll numbers have refused to shift. Murphy’s personal ratings lag behind those of Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s new First Minister. Moreover, few Scots seem troubled by warnings that a strong SNP performance would help the Tories retain power at Westminster. Like the English, though perhaps more surprisingly, Scots favour David Cameron over Miliband by two-to-one.

I have therefore reduced my prediction for Labour’s Scottish seat tally from 31 to 24. This still assumes that Labour will eventually trim the SNP’s lead from around 20% to 6-8%. If Murphy cannot manage even this, Labour could end up with as few as 10-15 seats. There is even a chance that Labour’s Scottish losses would more than wipe out its gains south of the border, and that the party would end up even fewer MPs overall than in 2010.

Labour’s best hope – and the Conservatives’ worst fear – is that last week’s stories about Tory donors and tax avoidance have a lasting effect. Labour’s current 3% lead follows weeks of near-level-pegging. However, I expect this boost to Labour’s fortunes to subside as the news agenda moves on.

If my new prediction is exactly right, then Cameron will plainly be in the driving seat in the days after the election. Theoretically, a Labour/SNP/Lib Dem block would have 330 seats and an overall majority of ten; but I doubt that Nick Clegg (or his successor) will think it wise to team up with a Labour Party that does little better overall than five years ago. With the Lib Dems likely to lose around half their seats, they won’t want to be blamed for creating a dangerous liaison of losers in order to hang onto a handful of ministerial cars and red boxes.

In those circumstances, Sturgeon’s offer to vote with Labour on major issues won’t be enough to propel Miliband into Downing Street.

That said, the character of Britain’s post-election politics, and the likelihood of second election this year or next, will depend on the precise seat numbers. It would take only modest movements from my central prediction to transform what happens. But for Miliband, the basic truth is inescapable: he can’t become Prime Minister unless Labour can win back hundreds of thousands of votes from the SNP.

As things stand, Cameron could be the first Tory leader for more than half a century to have good reason to say on election night: “Thank you, Scotland”.

 

[edge]

Now that's text book burying of 'bad news': net migration rises to almost 300,000...the Tories in a jam....oh wait, we'll release Jihadi John's real identity, that'll keep them occupied.

and a couple of days after going for the grey vote http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/pol...wngraded-to-protect-NHS-budgets-MPs-find.html

 

[edge]

I do the YouGov surveys and they sent out their most current prediction this morning:

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/02/16/scottish-voters-dent-milibands-hopes/

it would be intresting if that panned out and labour fought the second election without Ed. who surely would have to go

 

[Pienaar's gloves]

it would be intresting if that panned out and labour fought the second electin without Ed. who surely would have to go

It's too late for Ed to walk now, but he should never have stood.

 

[edge]

It's too late for Ed to walk now, but he should never have stood.

very true

 

[davek]

and a couple of days after going for the grey vote http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/pol...wngraded-to-protect-NHS-budgets-MPs-find.html

I see the Mancs have broken ranks yesterday on that issue: their local authority sticking their hands out for cash for self-governance of the NHS budget. Sinister move that one.

 

[orly]

I see the Mancs have broken ranks yesterday on that issue: their local authority sticking their hands out for cash for self-governance of the NHS budget. Sinister move that one.

Fully agreed. You only have to see how money is leeched out by consultants under the auspices of directly NHS funded projects, let alone city hall schiesters who get their dirty mitts on it.