The 2015 Popularity Contest (aka UK General Election )

[Groucho]

Every single poll says something different.

Which begs the question, where's the point in them?

 

[Joey66]

As mentioned before big move in Scot polls just confirmed. Not good reading for Labour

SNP widen the gap in Scotland according to YouGov/Times poll
SNP 49 +3
Lab 25 -4
Con 18 +2
LD 4 +1

The times take that as a tory rag who is pushing the SNP V Labour! at leat the torys will match the pandas in numbers if true!lol

 

[The Esk]

Is there a real possibility that the Lib Dems will try to "redeem" themselves and attempt to "resurrect" their party by switching sides to Labour, thereby giving us another coalition?

I don't know, these coalition thingies are new to me, I've only ever seen single party governments until now. Once you have a coalition situation, is that the case for a good while but with different parties?

Firstly I doubt Labour will want to go into coalition with a much weakened Liberal Party, and secondly the maths doesn't work - Labour & Lib Dem will not create a majority.

Similarly I doubt the Conservatives would go into another coalition with the Liberal Democrats (assuming Con's are largest party).

Both Labour and Conservatives realise that the Liberal Democrats could easily be finished after this election, both in my opinion would prefer to go alone than shore up the Liberals.

 

[Groucho]

Firstly I doubt Labour will want to go into coalition with a much weakened Liberal Party, and secondly the maths doesn't work - Labour & Lib Dem will not create a majority.

Similarly I doubt the Conservatives would go into another coalition with the Liberal Democrats (assuming Con's are largest party).

Both Labour and Conservatives realise that the Liberal Democrats could easily be finished after this election, both in my opinion would prefer to go alone than shore up the Liberals.

The Lib Dems have seen themselves off.

They once had 60 councillors on Merseyside, now down to 3 (if I heard the radio correctly today).

 

[davek]

Two polls tonight have one small Tory lead and one small Labour lead.


ComRes/Mail/ITV:

CON 34 (-2)
LAB 33 (+1)
LIB 12 (+3)
UKIP 12 (=)
GRN 4 (-1)

YouGov/Sun:

CON 34 (+1)
LAB 35 (-1)
LIB 8 (=)
UKIP 12 (-1)
GRN 4 (-1)

EDIT

 

[Mrk]

Polls are everywhere at the moment - fools game to try and read them - most leads for both Labour and Tories are within the margin of error.

 

[Groucho]

Polls are everywhere at the moment - fools game to try and read them - most leads for both Labour and Tories are within the margin of error.

Every poll I see is significantly different with all the other parties, but the same with Labour/Tory.

I could make one up now, I don't find them helpful.

 

[davek]

Polls are everywhere at the moment - fools game to try and read them - most leads for both Labour and Tories are within the margin of error.

I agree. The TNS and Panelbase polls today look like outliers for giving the LP such big leads.

The most interesting thing so far has been the failure of the Tories to push the economic competency issue to their advantage. As said earlier: I dont think that's down so much to keeping powder dry for later (although I do expect them to return to it big time as polling day nears), I think they sense that it's not playing as well as they anticipated. I think that's down to how well Labour prepared the ground prior to the election in terms of most people not feeling any upside to the data the Tories are throwing at them. Unless that changes I can see the Tories being well short of what they need.

 

[blue61]

Polls are everywhere at the moment - fools game to try and read them - most leads for both Labour and Tories are within the margin of error.

Nigel Farage has been warning about this for years, but nobody would listen.

 

[Mrk]

I agree. The TNS and Panelbase polls today look like outliers for giving the LP such big leads.

The most interesting thing so far has been the failure of the Tories to push the economic competency issue to their advantage. As said earlier: I dont think that's down so much to keeping powder dry for later (although I do expect them to return to it big time as polling day nears), I think they sense that it's not playing as well as they anticipated. I think that's down to how well Labour prepared the ground prior to the election in terms of most people not feeling any upside to the data the Tories are throwing at them. Unless that changes I can see the Tories being well short of what they need.

Completely agree with regards to the Tories messaging - it hasn't resonated at all so far.

I think the biggest issue with the Tories has been how negative they have been - people don't want to hear how dangerous Ed Miliband and Balls would be in power (however true it might be) they want a vision. Even though Ed Miliband's vision is something I disagree with, I can least give him the credit for having one in the first place...

The Tories definitely have a card up their sleeve though - I think they might be saving up a more radical policy to park their tanks on Labour's lawn.

 

[Mrk]

That was quick - Tories pledging to freeze rail fares for next 5 years.

Socialist b******s.

 

[davek]

Completely agree with regards to the Tories messaging - it hasn't resonated at all so far.

I think the biggest issue with the Tories has been how negative they have been - people don't want to hear how dangerous Ed Miliband and Balls would be in power (however true it might be) they want a vision. Even though Ed Miliband's vision is something I disagree with, I can least give him the credit for having one in the first place...

The Tories definitely have a card up their sleeve though - I think they might be saving up a more radical policy to park their tanks on Labour's lawn.

I've no doubt there'll be a big assault on Labour. They'll certainly, as you hint, have to address the perception they're dragging their feet on progressive taxation - where the LP have been scoring heavily so far.

Two things though: one, going after Miliband has proven disastrous and has strengthened him and his party (they seem not to be learning from this as I see the Telegraph are going after Miliband on some other sleaze tomorrow); two, the economy has to be front and centre but (and counterintuitive to expectations and most other elections) I dont think it's going to be THE issue in this election. And I'd add a third: the Tories have started off poorly and they're a couple of gaffes short of being given an unwanted omnishambles tag for their campaign that they'll find hard to shrug off in the next few weeks.

 

[chewee]

That was quick - Tories pledging to freeze rail fares for next 5 years.

Socialist b******s.

Already been talked about last week by Labour along with partial renationalisation (Which goes a step further as profit would in theory be put back into the state coffers)

http://www.manchestereveningnews.co...news/labour-leader-backs-men-election-8979430

 

[Mrk]

Already been talked about last week by Labour along with partial renationalisation (Which goes a step further as profit would in theory be put back into the state coffers)

http://www.manchestereveningnews.co...news/labour-leader-backs-men-election-8979430

Political parties stealing policies from one another. Shocking revelations.

 

[Clint Planet]

Still a long long way until polling day.

In 1992 a week before the election Kinnock thought he had it in the bag, then exit polls suggested Labour would be the biggest party but no clear winner. Even after polls closed not many saw the tories being the biggest party nevermind getting a majority.

I like what i've seen so far from Labour but the worry is they've peaked too early. Hope that isn't the case.

Essentially, a lot of people were embarrassed to admit to voting Tory. Says a lot about being a Tory, I suppose.