The 2015 Popularity Contest (aka UK General Election )

[davek]

Which ever way it goes, it is looking likely that the Scottish people will be governed from Westminster once again by a party that has little support north of the border. The Scots will look after themselves and the SNP definitely want independence asap. This is more likely to be achieved under the Tories. When push comes to shove and pacts are being negotiated, there will be all sorts of dealings going on that the general public will never know about.

They do, but they're also pragmatists. They've just had a 10 point defeat in a referendum and know going again soon for another referendum will likely produce the same result. It's clear though that there's a demographic aspect to independence and the push for it. The SNP have to wait a little while longer for that to tip the majority of Scots over into their column. In the meantime they'll try and loosen the bolts that fix Scotland to Westminster and the rest of the UK by going for more and more decision making powers to be passed to the Scottish Parliament. That's something they can get out of an understanding with Labour more than with the Tories.

In short: the SNP are playing the long game. There'll be no histrionics and chaos if they prop up a minority Labour Government.

 

[Groucho]

They do, but they're also pragmatists. They've just had a 10 point defeat in a referendum and know going again soon for another referendum will likely produce the same result. It's clear though that there's a demographic aspect to independence and the push for it. The SNP have to wait a little while longer for that to tip the majority of Scots over into their column. In the meantime they'll try and loosen the bolts that fix Scotland to Westminster and the rest of the UK by going for more and more decision making powers to be passed to the Scottish Parliament. That's something they can get out of an understanding with Labour more than with the Tories.

In short: the SNP are playing the long game. There'll be no histrionics and chaos if they prop up a minority Labour Government.

Labour/SNP alliance likely?

 

[davek]

Labour/SNP alliance likely?

Inevitable if they have the numbers to get over the 326 seats needed.

I dont think it can be formal like we had last time with the CP and LDs, but an understanding of sorts.

 

[chewee]

Labour/SNP alliance likely?

More likely than not but by no means certain.

There is also the assumption the Lib Dems will side with the tories again, if Clegg loses his seat I can see a switch to Labour.

 

[daylightrobber]

The SNP won't necessarily get many concessions from Labour though as that could be detrimental to Labour.

Labour have offered nothing. The Tories could offer a lot. The SNP would be able to sell it on this alone. They wouldn't have to support them in government, purely put them there in the 1st place.

 

[The Esk]

Labour/SNP alliance likely?

I doubt there will be a formal alliance. Based on current polls a Labour minority Government seems most likely.

 

[daylightrobber]

I doubt there will be a formal alliance. Based on current polls a Labour minority Government seems most likely.

With or without the Tories trying to form a minority government 1st?

 

[Groucho]

I doubt there will be a formal alliance. Based on current polls a Labour minority Government seems most likely.

Is that solely Labour? Not a coalition?

 

[The Esk]

With or without the Tories trying to form a minority government 1st?

Largest party will be given the first option to form a Government

Is that solely Labour? Not a coalition?

Yes, I don't believe they will enter a formal coalition with any party, definitely not SNP.

 

[Joey66]

The nasty Tories are shooting themselves in the foot shock horror- it's going to be a nasty campaign - their problem was in office they made ED look like an idiot, and it seems to be backfiring it will be a hung parliament maybe a rain bow coalition - the Tories are smoke screening Scotland's influence yet I fee they are looking to the Northern Ireland parties imo!

I really hope that's Esther Mcvey's seat.

Here here what a posh snooby cow she really is! should stick to her tv ads!

 

[davek]

Two more polls on their way in the next hour or so - YouGov and ComRes.

That could bring things back in for the Tories if the leads Labour have had of late are staunched.

 

[Groucho]

Largest party will be given the first option to form a Government



Yes, I don't believe they will enter a formal coalition with any party, definitely not SNP.

Is there a real possibility that the Lib Dems will try to "redeem" themselves and attempt to "resurrect" their party by switching sides to Labour, thereby giving us another coalition?

I don't know, these coalition thingies are new to me, I've only ever seen single party governments until now. Once you have a coalition situation, is that the case for a good while but with different parties?

 

[Joey66]

Is it possible for a triple coalition Tory Lib dem and the DUP ? as DC has first choice to form a coalition even if he wins by one seat!
He has been creeping up to the Northern Irish for about a month now & over there this week!

 

[Woolly Blue]

Surprised they havnt done that more imo. But the BBC have led all day with the personal attack on Ed, when Trident is actually quite important. And like you say, puts Labour on the spot.

And the SNP have never really explained why its an ace idea to lose 0000's of highly skilled jobs to pursue an idealogical agenda.

I'd be amazed if a Labour government gave up Trident.

Forget about the words independent, nuclear and deterrrent, they're just a means to an end and the end that governments are interested in with Trident is making sure they have their feet under the table of the countries with nuclear devices. Politicians love power and influence and they ain't going to give that particular type of influence unless they really have to. That's the chief reason that Labour didn't scrap Trident last time they came into power. In reality it had sod all to do with the defence of the nation.

 

[chewee]

As mentioned before big move in Scot polls just confirmed. Not good reading for Labour

SNP widen the gap in Scotland according to YouGov/Times poll
SNP 49 +3
Lab 25 -4
Con 18 +2
LD 4 +1