The 2015 Popularity Contest (aka UK General Election )

[chewee]

I'm struggling to explain why. The Tories have barely put a foot right this last week. I suppose the scaremongering press are having an effect.

The SNP threat rammed down voters throats in the media seems to be the break through. For the first time this election i've had a wobble in my belief Miliband will be PM. It's really getting too close to call.

 

[Joey66]

And in a few days Labour could be in the lead again - it is so tight at the moment any lead is barely worth mentioning.

All we're seeing is the core vote for each party + a few floating voters. The election will be decided by the undecideds, if Miliband has done enough to convince them, he may end up PM, otherwise it'll be Cameron.

NO look at this -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11374181/latest-poll-tracker.html

It will be a hung parliament, anyone's guess on what arrangements will be made - i feel it may be a CON LIB UD stitch up!

 

[chewee]

And in a few days Labour could be in the lead again - it is so tight at the moment any lead is barely worth mentioning.

All we're seeing is the core vote for each party + a few floating voters. The election will be decided by the undecideds, if Miliband has done enough to convince them, he may end up PM, otherwise it'll be Cameron.

Maybe so but there has been several showing 3-6 point leads for the tories now which is a worry. The polls which have Labour up are generally not as well respected & established as the heavyweight pollsters like ICM & YouGov. Tonights YouGov tory swing is significant.

 

[SNova]

You say that like it's a bad thing.

Heaven forfend we're ever subjected to social justice!

It is a bad thing. http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=social+justice+warrior

 

[1966efc]

There has without doubt been a shift these last few days towards the tories. Most respected opinion polls now have them up, YouGov being the latest. A worry for Labour - the predicted swing is starting to happen.

Big few days ahead for Miliband he needs to stem the flow and fast otherwise it could slip away. Needs to keep within 10-15 seats i'd say which is a maximum of 3 points.

Through the night of doubt and sorrow
Onward goes the pilgrim band,
Singing songs of expectation,
Marching to the promised land.
Clear before us through the darkness
Gleams and burns the guiding light:
Brother clasps the hand of brother,
Stepping fearless through the night.

 

[Mrk]

NO look at this -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11374181/latest-poll-tracker.html

It will be a hung parliament, anyone's guess on what arrangements will be made - i feel it may be a CON LIB UD stitch up!

Only Cameron or Miliband can be PM...

 

[Clint Planet]

It is a bad thing. http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=social+justice+warrior

I'd say it's pretty obvious Jones knows his stuff.

 

[Joey66]

Only Cameron or Miliband can be PM...

YES under what coalition? that's the poser who ever will be PM will be under pressure!

 

[Mrk]

Maybe so but there has been several showing 3-6 point leads for the tories now which is a worry. The polls which have Labour up are generally not as well respected & established as the heavyweight pollsters like ICM & YouGov. Tonights YouGov tory swing is significant.

I'd be staggered if tomorrows YouGov doesn't show a swing back to Labour. There's currently nothing in it.

Of course the Tories will see some sort of swing back to them, but who wins the undecideds will "win" the election. That isn't factored into the polls.

 

[bigbadjeff]

I live in Northern Ireland and therefor have no axe to grind, but come polling day people will think who is going to put more pay in my pocket at the end of the week/month. Anyone who says otherwise is deluded.

 

[chewee]

ICM, Opinium, Ashcroft, ComRes consistent with Tory leads. YouGov just jumped onboard. Two weeks ago a tory lead in any poll was a surprise.

 

[1966efc]

Labour counts "undecided" as a Tory vote in canvass returns. If that is true, the Tories will win a majority. However, as Peter Kellner and the chap directing Survation have admitted, in this election, the national snapshot polls are not helpful.

Truth is probably that noone has the first idea who will write the Queens Speech which gains a majority.

 

[chewee]

Labour counts "undecided" as a Tory vote in canvass returns. If that is true, the Tories will win a majority. However, as Peter Kellner and the chap directing Survation have admitted, in this election, the national snapshot polls are not helpful.

Truth is probably that noone has the first idea who will write the Queens Speech which gains a majority.

For marginal seat polling Labour are doing well, they seem to be up where they need to be however national polling suggests they are on the slide.

 

[daylightrobber]

I'm struggling to explain why. The Tories have barely put a foot right this last week. I suppose the scaremongering press are having an effect.

Tbh fella I struggle to get my head round why anyone who isn't in the top 10% of earners in this country would vote conservative full stop. Got to be one of the most successful con tricks in history, persuading people you are ripping off to keep you in power. Whilst, at the same time distributing the money you have syphoned off from them amongst those who've already got the lot.

 

[SNova]

I believe UKIP will get more votes than the polls suggest. There is a shy UKIP factor. Because many people tend to call anyone who agrees with UKIP a racist.