The 2015 Popularity Contest (aka UK General Election )

[davek]

I've thought and said for a while that it's headed for a 2% Tory lead in the polls by the eve of the election. Then it's down to a matter of how the polls reflect reality on the day (I still think the weighting of these polls - apart from yougov this time around - will be heavily in favour of attributing to voters now their 2010 vote patterns and therefore boosting Tory polling proportions in these present polls...and also factoring in, illicitly, incumbency swingback behaviour).

If the Tories cant cobble together a government themselves (almost impossible), or with the LDs (very unlikely), then they'll have to get the DUP or UKIP in which makes the whole business an absolute mess and a racing certainty for a second election this year, because a three-way party alignment that struggles across the line with such disparate elements to it cant possibly hold the line on discipline in voting.

I've been surprised in the teeth of such an obvious media driven bias against Miliband and Labour that they've held the line for so long. If they can just keep the Tories close enough they have the soon to follow next election in reach and very winnable.

 

[The Cowboy]

I believe UKIP will get more votes than the polls suggest. There is a shy UKIP factor. Because many people tend to call anyone who agrees with UKIP a racist.

I have wondered how it will play out in people's minds when they're in that booth though. Takes a strong mind to vote for a fringe party. Many bottle it and go mainstream right at the last second.

I think UKIP might actually bomb big time.

 

[bring the ghost on]

It is a bad thing. http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=social+justice+warrior

Erm, you've just linked to a site which says that 'social justice warrior' is a term used by 'annoying people who like to discriminate and hate'.

It's a sad state of affairs when a label for fighting against social injustice is deemed to be an insult.

 

[The Cowboy]

Erm, you've just linked to a site which says that 'social justice warrior' is a term used by 'annoying people who like to discriminate and hate'.

It's a sad state of affairs when a label for fighting against social injustice is deemed to be an insult.

Using urbandictionary as a source is pretty bold, if you ask me.

 

[SNova]

Erm, you've just linked to a site which says that 'social justice warrior' is a term used by 'annoying people who like to discriminate and hate'.

It's a sad state of affairs when a label for fighting against social injustice is deemed to be an insult.

The term is not used for actual injustice.

 

[1966efc]

In an election as close as this, it's worth pointing out that a lot of the political commentators are getting their sums wrong.

By and large, they are saying that "X" party needs 326 to form an overall majority. It's a simple line which doesn't recognise that the Speaker can be taken out of the equation as can Sinn Fein members. Sinn Fein is likely to lose one or two of its seats (unless the SDLP agree to an electoral pact - highly unlikely at this stage) which could mean that a new government might only need 322 or 323 seats to get a Queen's Speech through the commons.

Then comes the bottom line: would any of the parties embrace the idea of a second election within a year? Or would they sit on their hands for a while and allow a repugnant (to them) Queen's Speech through by abstention? Apart from the Conservatives presumably), which other party has the finances to mount another campaign in such a short time? And a campaign which might well see only two or three seats change hands!

 

[Clint Planet]

http://www.theguardian.com/education/2015/apr/28/schools-hidden-funding-crisis-teachers-education

Dan McAllister is a teacher at a secondary school in South Yorkshire. This is not his real name, because he is worried about the implications for his job if he talks to the Guardian about the financial crisis facing his school. Before Easter, he and his colleagues were summoned to a staff meeting to be told that their oversubscribed academy, rated outstanding by Ofsted, was facing a budget shortfall of £750,000 over the next three years.

The staff gathered that day were horrified. “We were expecting some of it,” McAllister said, “but it was absolutely massive!” They were warned that as many as 10 jobs would have to go to help make the necessary savings, and the harsh reality of the difficulties that lay ahead for them personally began to sink in.

“People are frightened,” he said. “They don’t want to lose their jobs. And schools are desperately frightened – if their reputation goes down, parents will choose to go elsewhere.”

As the general election campaign got under way, schools across the country were busy signing off their 2015 budgets, involving some of the most shocking cuts seen in years. The three major parties have given slightly different versions of a commitment to protect education spending, but each pledge has its own caveat that will result in real-term cuts of up to 12%, a fact that none of the parties are talking about ahead of the election.

In schools they are. McAllister’s institution is far from alone. According to the Association of School and College Leaders (ASCL), nearly half (49%) of 1,000 headteachers who took part in a recent survey said their school budgets were in either a “critical” or “very serious” state, with almost all of them acknowledging that they are facing financial difficulties.

Although teaching unions have been trying to warn about the coming storm, it has been hard to whip up interest in the rising costs of pension and national insurance contributions that are just part of the problem now facing schools and their vanishing budgets.

[article continues..]

Make no mistake, there is an impending crisis in state education in this country, "ring-fencing" or no ring fencing. I also predict a teacher recruitment shortage as many experienced and talented teachers decide enough is enough and leave the profession (on top of the NQTs eho have second thoughts a few years down the line0.

There's a real feeling in education that Labour, though hardly blameless, were on our side and believed in world-class, well-funded education. It's a very different impression under the Tories.

I dread to think of the consequences for this in terms of social cohesion in our communities.

 

[Clint Planet]

This is where I teach:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/apr/28/edmonton-londoners-london-suburb-economy

London is one of the richest, most powerful cities in history. It can raise billions for companies entering the stock market, while politicians sitting in its centre charter war after war. Here, just 10 miles north of parliament, they have neither wealth nor power: parts of Edmonton rank among the poorest in England.

You’re not meant to know about this side of the capital. The story put about by politicians and pundits and money men is that London is the one engine that roars in a largely broken economic machine. “A first-rate city with a second-rate country attached,” as the BBC’s previous economics editor, Stephanie Flanders, quoted a financier friend. Strip that statement of its self-preening and it’s really a damning indictment: a national economic system that only delivers the goods for one city.

But Edmonton demonstrates that Thatcher’s trickle-down didn’t even reach the capital’s sides, let alone its hinterland. While London now has more billionaires than any other city, according to the latest Sunday Times Rich List, a local youth worker told me last year of showing a recruitment ad to a teenager, only to be told that £10,000 a year jobs weren’t for Edmonton people. “I know my place,” he said.[/quote]

Seriously, it's land of the disposessed and discarded. I don't suppose Bruce attends many meetings or seminars up here.

LSE academics found last month that thepoorest Londoners were worse off after the crash than their counterparts in the rest of the UK. Hardest hit were the poorest 10% renting in the private sector, who were 53% poorer in 2013 than they were in 2007.

Sounds about right. And Bruce, this is why I openly mocked you the other day - because you deserved it. You actually came onto this thread and mocked people for wanting social justice. You made sarcastic remarks about "fairness" and how childish it was. Shame on you. There's nothing childish about expecting to be treated fairly.

 

[Jxg]

He has said he is resigning to look after his wife who is seriously ill. I am happy to see a modern day politician resigning. I am stopping talking about this now as it looks like I'm DUP bashing. I have no allegiance to any political party in Northern Ireland, they are all as bad as each other, in my opinion.

Couldn't care less about the parties in NI tbh and I don't know why you think you're coming across badly.

He resigned to "look after his wife". Let's be honest, is that really the reason? It's like Roberto saying Distin isn't playing because he's "injured". We know it's bs.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

Sounds about right. And Bruce, this is why I openly mocked you the other day - because you deserved it. You actually came onto this thread and mocked people for wanting social justice. You made sarcastic remarks about "fairness" and how childish it was. Shame on you. There's nothing childish about expecting to be treated fairly.

Mocking someone that disagrees with you isn't a very endearing quality Of course fairness is something inbuilt within us.



It's something we all strive for. There's a lot to be said for mindset though. You focus on something and that's where you end up, like when you see a pothole in the road and focus so much on avoiding it you ride straight into it. If you approach life as though it's unfair and people are out to get you, then it's not likely to help your chances.

 

[daylightrobber]

Mocking someone that disagrees with you isn't a very endearing quality Of course fairness is something inbuilt within us.



It's something we all strive for. There's a lot to be said for mindset though. You focus on something and that's where you end up, like when you see a pothole in the road and focus so much on avoiding it you ride straight into it. If you approach life as though it's unfair and people are out to get you, then it's not likely to help your chances.

It isn't. There are significant numbers of people in this country are greedy and do not care about the lives of others as long as they are alright.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

It isn't. There are significant numbers of people in this country are greedy and do not care about the lives of others as long as they are alright.

I suppose it's a matter of optimism/pessimism about people. I tend to fall into the former camp. The study below shows, for instance, how we tend to respond even when we know full well that we're about to gain from something that's unfair, with most people choosing not to capitalise on their unfairly gained fortune.

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022103110001241

Just one study of course, and it's quite possible that I'm seeking out things to confirm my optimism about the human spirit, but such is life.

 

[1966efc]

I'd sooner words such as 'equitable' or 'just' were used rather than fair.

We none of us have the time, "big picture" view or shared appreciation of fairness to affect the lives of the disadvantaged. A government with its research workers, grasp of the whole budget and overview of the various regions can arrive at what it sees as an equitable distribution of national resources, though there will be people limited by geography, time / interest and astuteness who will call that distribution unfair.

 

[jaycee]

still waiting for somebody to explain why the poorest most disadvantaged are bearing the brunt of the cuts,

 

[daylightrobber]

I suppose it's a matter of optimism/pessimism about people. I tend to fall into the former camp. The study below shows, for instance, how we tend to respond even when we know full well that we're about to gain from something that's unfair, with most people choosing not to capitalise on their unfairly gained fortune.

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022103110001241

Just one study of course, and it's quite possible that I'm seeking out things to confirm my optimism about the human spirit, but such is life.

You're right, it is just one study. I posted a long way back about the work of Paul Piff, social psychologist, who has demonstrated how having wealth affects attitudes to those that don't have it, encourages greed and basically turns you into a bit of a knob without you realising it.