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The 2015 Popularity Contest (aka UK General Election )

Who will you be voting for?

  • Tory

    Votes: 38 9.9%
  • Diet Tory (Labour)

    Votes: 132 34.3%
  • Tory Zero (Greens)

    Votes: 44 11.4%
  • Extra Tory with lemon (UKIP)

    Votes: 40 10.4%
  • Lib Dems

    Votes: 9 2.3%
  • Other

    Votes: 31 8.1%
  • Cheese on toast

    Votes: 91 23.6%

  • Total voters
    385
  • Poll closed .
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No, Dave. The economy is slowing down because business is scared of Labour getting in, so it's Labour's fault, even though they're not in government. You know that's what they'll say.
Probably something to do with the EU or immigrants putting a spanner in the works of the Tory economic miracle.

It's going to be hard for them to argue the case for sticking with them and that the sunny uplands are in sight....not that anyone bought that BS anyway.
 
Bit on inequality here by Tim Harford (it was originally on the FT but that's gated so I've linked to his personal blog below)

http://timharford.com/2015/04/the-truth-about-inequality/

"
One final myth is that inequality in the UK has risen since the financial crisis. In fact, it has fallen quite sharply. “Inequality remains significantly lower than in 2007-08,” said the Institute for Fiscal Studies last summer. That conclusion is based on data through April 2013. The IFS did add, though, that “there is good reason to think that the falls in income inequality since 2007-08 are currently being reversed.”

Given all this, why the sudden anxiety about inequality? The answer is partly political: incomes fell and then stagnated after the financial crisis, and the crisis also made it seem risible to claim that the entrepreneurial activities of the rich would indirectly help the poor. None of this is directly connected to rising inequality but it certainly changes the conversation.

Yet there is more going on than a change in the political wind. By most reasonable measures, inequality of incomes has risen substantially over the past 40 years in both the US and the UK, with a particular surge in the 1980s. That should clarify the issue: the problem is most clearly seen within boundaries of nation states rather than globally; in income rather than wealth; and over the past few decades rather than the past few years. And it is stark enough to need no exaggeration.

I recently attended the launch of Inequality: What Can Be Done?, a book by Anthony Atkinson. Professor Atkinson is the economist who set the stage for younger stars such as Piketty and Emmanuel Saez; his first major paper on the subject of inequality was published in 1970, before either of them was born.

One thing that can be done, says Atkinson, is to use the same old redistributive tools with more vigour. The UK already redistributes income extensively. As Gabriel Zucman of the London School of Economics points out, the UK’s richest fifth had 15 times the pre-tax income of the poorest fifth, but after taxes and benefits they had just four times as much.

For some people that will seem more than enough redistribution. Others will disagree, and Atkinson is one of them. He would like to see the current 45 per cent top rate of tax levied at a much lower level (about £65,000), a new 65 per cent top rate for those earning more than £200,000, a substantially higher minimum wage, a “minimum inheritance” paid to every 18-year-old, guaranteed public employment, more comprehensive taxation of inheritance and property and an expansion of universal benefits.

Like it or loathe it, this is ambitious stuff. I don’t know if a 65 per cent top rate of tax is likely to be counterproductively high and neither does Tony Atkinson. I suspect that it is, and the available evidence provides some support for that suspicion. However, there is a wide margin of uncertainty so Atkinson is right to say that the evidence doesn’t conclusively rule it out.

Atkinson also wants to make market incomes themselves more egalitarian, leaving the welfare state with less to do. Ed Miliband, the Labour leader, once talked of “pre-distribution”, which is an ugly word for the same idea. But neither Miliband nor Atkinson is entirely persuasive about how this might work. Atkinson suggests that competition policy, vetting mergers and breaking up or regulating monopolies, should be used to reduce inequality. Or possibly the state’s support for science and innovation — always important — could favour innovations that complement labour rather than replacing it? In theory all this is possible. But my imagination is not up to the task of figuring out what these labour-complementing innovations might be, nor how the government might help produce them.

The UK general election on May 7 might well produce a Labour-led government but it will be astonishing if that government embraces a redistributive agenda half as ambitious as Atkinson’s. The conversation about inequality has changed quickly — but what mainstream politicians are willing to countenance has not."


In short, politicians have to sell a line to the general public (not least their own activists) and that in current circumstances, not much will change radically. What I said a few pages ago. Forget the New Jerusalem; be thankful for a bit of corrugated iron to mend the roof.
 
Here's what we think the reality is, what we think it should be and what it actually is.

I wasn't talking about poverty as that is something that is easier to measure and therefore a bit less subjective. I was talking about this notion that its an ideological attack from the Tories and that they hate the poor.

IDS clearly has an interest in this area, and has done for some time. It may be that his ideas were voted down by others in the cabinet, it may be that his ideas are completely wrong, and yes, it may be that he simply doesn't give a [Poor language removed], but I'm not sure how we can say either way with the certainty that people seem to believe they can. Given the long-term interest in the issue by the Centre for Social Justice, I'd be more inclined to believe the first two than the last one.

Likewise with your comments about people hoarding wealth in order to prop up their balance sheets. That's pretty judgemental. I know, for instance, that there are a number of people on this forum who have pretty healthy bank balances and I wouldn't like to suggest any of them lack a social conscience.
 
In short, politicians have to sell a line to the general public (not least their own activists) and that in current circumstances, not much will change radically. What I said a few pages ago. Forget the New Jerusalem; be thankful for a bit of corrugated iron to mend the roof.

I think that's very likely, despite the posturing from all sides that they represent something fresh, I doubt anything substantial will change. We've seen with the likes of Greece that there's a big difference between what is promised and what can actually be delivered.
 

TNS had Labour 2 up last week, now Cons 1 up. The pattern of swing with national pollsters continues FFS.
The scottish wipe out will damage Labour as much as Ukip, will damage the Tories hence a hung parliament with a coalition of anyone's guess!
Do not for get if the tories win by a few seats they have first dibs on forming a coalition or even if they lose by a few seats!
 
I wasn't talking about poverty as that is something that is easier to measure and therefore a bit less subjective. I was talking about this notion that its an ideological attack from the Tories and that they hate the poor.

IDS clearly has an interest in this area, and has done for some time. It may be that his ideas were voted down by others in the cabinet, it may be that his ideas are completely wrong, and yes, it may be that he simply doesn't give a [Poor language removed], but I'm not sure how we can say either way with the certainty that people seem to believe they can. Given the long-term interest in the issue by the Centre for Social Justice, I'd be more inclined to believe the first two than the last one.

Likewise with your comments about people hoarding wealth in order to prop up their balance sheets. That's pretty judgemental. I know, for instance, that there are a number of people on this forum who have pretty healthy bank balances and I wouldn't like to suggest any of them lack a social conscience.

Don't doubt that for a second. Even Lord Ashcroft is signed up to the Giving Pledege.

In regards to IDS - the guy is a vengeful, spiteful shoit of a man, who looks down on the poor with more than contempt.

In regards to poverty vs hate. If you are prepared to push people into poverty knowing that it isn't the only option, then you are well on the way to hate.
 
The UKIP vote has been on the slide this week - hence the tory surge.

I expect a further 2% tory swing on polling day, it's usually the case for a sitting first term government so Labour need to keep close. A 15 seat loss is the most they can afford to be behind by. I'm hoping this is just a wobble because on the whole Labour have run a very good campaign.
 
The scottish wipe out will damage Labour as much as Ukip, will damage the Tories hence a hung parliament with a coalition of anyone's guess!
Do not for get if the tories win by a few seats they have first dibs on forming a coalition or even if they lose by a few seats!

Not sure the UKIP breakthrough has really gained much traction myself. Sure, they will pick up votes, possibly from all 3 main parties, but I would be astonished if they and the Tories get enough to form a coalition.

More chance of a Tory/LD repeat than that. And that is looking pretty unlikely as well.

But a week to go, so all to play for still.
 
0ab66035-13fa-4805-b21f-e3a792a52b84-620x486.png



The above chart demonstrates how uneven the current "recovery" is. It is clear from the above as to why so few people have actually felt any real benefit even from the depths of the recession.
 

5th quarter in a row the economy has slowed.

Q1 2014 0.9%
Q2 2014 0.8%
Q3 2014 0.7%
Q4 2014 0.6%
Q1 2015 0.3%

'Stick with us, we're getting there'.

Yes, they certainly are.
 
5th quarter in a row the economy has slowed.

Q1 2014 0.9%
Q2 2014 0.8%
Q3 2014 0.7%
Q4 2014 0.6%
Q1 2015 0.3%

'Stick with us, we're getting there'.

Yes, they certainly are.
Yes and all this employment too booming figures =NOT! they have doubled the national debt borrowed more than Labour, and used quantitive easing that's cost 4 billion how many O levels in simple mathematics as Gideon Osborne got at Eaton!:(
 
Not sure the UKIP breakthrough has really gained much traction myself. Sure, they will pick up votes, possibly from all 3 main parties, but I would be astonished if they and the Tories get enough to form a coalition.

More chance of a Tory/LD repeat than that. And that is looking pretty unlikely as well.

But a week to go, so all to play for still.
UKIP playing hell Farage has been omitted from the BBC question time debate - his quotes on a left wing audience at the BBC and the BBC license to be dropped to £50 per year may have blocked his path!lol
 
0ab66035-13fa-4805-b21f-e3a792a52b84-620x486.png



The above chart demonstrates how uneven the current "recovery" is. It is clear from the above as to why so few people have actually felt any real benefit even from the depths of the recession.
So much for the post 2010 election talk of retooling the economy and becoming less reliant on the financial services sector.
 
Poll out this morning from TNS-BMRB showing the Tories consolidating their polling position

CON 34 (+2)
LAB 33 (=)
LIB 7 (-1)
UKIP 15 (=)
GRN 5 (=)

Labour need to go on the attack and avoid this turning into any greater shift in preferences prior to the weekend - at which point I think whatever the polls say will be pretty final.
 

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